Hurricane Mike wrote:I think it's two things. First, the naming of Sub-Tropical Cyclones and second, more up to the minute satellite and data analysis then we had even 15-20 years ago.
If we never named Sub-Tropical storms, there is also a chance they would have not "turned tropical" and if they had, it would have been unnamed and after the fact. 20 years ago, Hurricane "Florence" last year would have likely been "Hurricane Chris" and Michael would have likely been "Helene" or "Isaac". No way we would have had as many storms named. Alberto, Debby, Ernesto, and Joyce all began as sub-tropical storms, and I'm skeptical if any would have been named even after turning tropical with the old naming procedures. Perhaps only Leslie and Oscar.
If so, we would have had the following in 2018:
Hurricane Alberto (Beryl)
Hurricane Beryl (Chris)
Hurricane Chris (Florence)
Tropical Storm Debby (Gordon)
Hurricane Ernesto (Helene)
Hurricane Florence (Isaac)
Tropical Storm Gordon (Kirk)
Hurricane Helene (Leslie)
Hurricane Isaac (Michael)
Tropical Storm Joyce (Nadine)
Hurricane Kirk (Oscar)
We would have had a season of 11 storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes. Hurricanes Chris and Isaac would have been what Florence and Michael were. This could also explain why we used to have many "retired storms" that were earlier in the name lists. Instead of Allen, Alicia and Andrew, we end up with Matthew, Maria and Michael.
Also, for a season like 2016, I'm skeptical if any storm would have been named until Hurricane Earl in late July prior to the 2000s. Hurricane Alex was a sub-tropical system that became a hurricane in January. Even as recently as the 90s, this would likely have never attained a name. "Bonnie" was so poorly organized I'm skeptical if it would have gone beyond depression status back in the day. Same for Colin and Danielle. That would have made Hurricane Earl christened Hurricane "Alex". Hermine would have been Hurricane "Danielle", and Matthew, Nicole and Otto would have been "Ian, Julia and Karl."
I think much of all of this has to do with naming procedures and better analysis and tools for tracking.
There does seem to be a tangible increase in May storms in general, rather than a change in classification--I've been compiling an archive of storms I feel were missed even counting those (and I'm more liberal with what I feel qualifies for the subtropical definition), May storms were few and far between even during that time.
I don't feel that a lot of storms would've gone unclassified had we not named subtropical storms, but rather, they would've simply been designated tropical and gone straight to tropical storm. Alberto in 2018 is a very good example of this, there were so many June tropical storms as late as the 2000s that were arguably subtropical but were designated as tropical. It seems they are simply less hesitant to use the term now that there's more widely available information which I think leads to less public confusion, especially when you consider there were a fair number of storms in the 90s and even early 2000s that had subtropical portions added to the BT post-season, but were treated as non-tropical systems (and not carried operationally) during that portion.
However, I do feel this assessment is entirely accurate in a more general sense (applying it outside of May) prior to the middle to late 80s, as 1982-83 alone had multiple storms that appear they would be designated tropical or subtropical storms today
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