WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

98W renumbered

99W.INVEST

99W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.7N.147E

[Hayabusa]

18Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

99W INVEST 210527 0000 6.6N 146.9E WPAC 20 1008

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 270130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/270130Z-270600ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6N
146.9E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261847Z 91 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. INVEST 99W IS LOCATED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N
157.9E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 262110Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS STRONGER WINDS (20-25KTS)
NORTH OF THE CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD AS IT DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARAGRAPHS 1.B.(1) AND 1.B.
(2). //
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

99W INVEST 210528 1800 6.0N 138.4E WPAC 15 1010

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290521ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 142.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 74
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY MINIMAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND
STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Subtrop]

99W INVEST 210529 0600 6.8N 135.7E WPAC 20 1008

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 06N 136E WNW 10 KT.

[cycloneye]

TXPQ22 KNES 291206
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 5.9N

D. 134.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LLCC. 3/10 BANDING FOR
A DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

90W may got a TCFA first but 99W got upgraded straight to a TC first and that's w/o a TCFA.

99W INVEST 210529 1800 6.4N 134.5E WPAC 25 1003

04W.INVEST

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 12Z peaks it to cat 2 before making landfall

[aspen]

HWRF 12Z peaks it to cat 2 before making landfall
https://i.imgur.com/TtA8aF1.png

The HWRF also shows an extremely offset MLC for much of the cyclone’s life, and dry air attempting to get in. It seems that wind shear will be a huge problem for 04W to overcome and is probably one of the reasons why the GFS doesn’t show it intensifying beyond a marginal TS.

[Hayabusa]

1st warning typhoon forecast

[aspen]

That’s a lot of OHC coming up in a few days.

[Subtrop]

WTPQ50 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 05.9N 133.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 08.8N 132.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 010000UTC 11.0N 129.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 020000UTC 13.5N 127.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 030000UTC 17.1N 126.1E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[wxman57]

HWRF is the only model that doesn't dissipate the storm east of Luzon next Thursday. It's also the only model that takes it into Luzon. Not sure what JTWC is doing by indicating a strengthening typhoon east of Luzon next Thursday. Very odd forecast given current guidance of dissipation in the same location. Models DO have a strengthen typhoon east of Luzon next Thursday, but it's the disturbance behind this one.

[Kingarabian]

I'm sure this is a TS. Some mid shear though.

[Meteophile]

If the LLC is right below the CDO, it could intensify quickly due to favorable conditions in the next day or two, changing the overall forecasts.

If the LLC is north of the CDO as the visible satellite makes me think, it may already have windshear and still has to organize, which may be difficult due to uncertain conditions in the next days.


Edit: did the last ASCAT pass say it's just a bunch of convection or the center is on the right ?