2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kohlecane]

It’s to early for this lol GFS drinking for the long weekend.

https://i.postimg.cc/QdtspV8q/E9-F53255-2376-445-C-B606-E87314978-B36.png

YUP to many white claws for the GFS cut it off. . Good to be back fellas!

[Cpv17]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

Personally, I wish model runs beyond 168 hours (7 days) weren’t available to the public. I see no real substantive value of having model runs out more than ten days in advance. In the relatively rare instance that a particular model prognostication turns out to be fairly accurate, it’s not as much skill as the result of it being run 4 times daily for sixteen days with varying tracks and intensity.

As a degreed meteorologist who worked for the NWS back in the ‘90’s, I find it problematic to see so many persons posting 10-16 day individual model forecasts without the appropriate context. Then again, I reiterate that I see no real benefit to the dissemination of them for intervals exceeding ten days.

I actually agree with you.

[AtlanticWind]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

Personally, I wish model runs beyond 168 hours (7 days) weren’t available to the public. I see no real substantive value of having model runs out more than ten days in advance. In the relatively rare instance that a particular model prognostication turns out to be fairly accurate, it’s not as much skill as the result of it being run 4 times daily for sixteen days with varying tracks and intensity.

As a degreed meteorologist who worked for the NWS back in the ‘90’s, I find it problematic to see so many persons posting 10-16 day individual model forecasts without the appropriate context. Then again, I reiterate that I see no real benefit to the dissemination of them for intervals exceeding ten days.

I actually agree with you.

Dont really seen how that can be done,

Beside the fact that the GFS is taxpayer funded (I believe)
These are long range forecasts are used by the weather channel, accuweather and others.
I dont see any legitimate reasoning that these could be kept out of the public domain.

[CyclonicFury]

EPS continues to show some activity past Day 10 in the NW Caribbean and GoM.

[tolakram]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

Personally, I wish model runs beyond 168 hours (7 days) weren’t available to the public. I see no real substantive value of having model runs out more than ten days in advance. In the relatively rare instance that a particular model prognostication turns out to be fairly accurate, it’s not as much skill as the result of it being run 4 times daily for sixteen days with varying tracks and intensity.

As a degreed meteorologist who worked for the NWS back in the ‘90’s, I find it problematic to see so many persons posting 10-16 day individual model forecasts without the appropriate context. Then again, I reiterate that I see no real benefit to the dissemination of them for intervals exceeding ten days.

I strongly disagree with any sentiment that includes hiding things from the public. It's not a problem when people post this on an enthusiast forum like S2K, this is a discussion. If these things bother you then you're in the wrong place.

[xironman]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

Personally, I wish model runs beyond 168 hours (7 days) weren’t available to the public. I see no real substantive value of having model runs out more than ten days in advance. In the relatively rare instance that a particular model prognostication turns out to be fairly accurate, it’s not as much skill as the result of it being run 4 times daily for sixteen days with varying tracks and intensity.

As a degreed meteorologist who worked for the NWS back in the ‘90’s, I find it problematic to see so many persons posting 10-16 day individual model forecasts without the appropriate context. Then again, I reiterate that I see no real benefit to the dissemination of them for intervals exceeding ten days.

Does that include ensembles? I would be lost without my long range Euro ensembles for planning for winter weather.

[CyclonicFury]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

Personally, I wish model runs beyond 168 hours (7 days) weren’t available to the public. I see no real substantive value of having model runs out more than ten days in advance. In the relatively rare instance that a particular model prognostication turns out to be fairly accurate, it’s not as much skill as the result of it being run 4 times daily for sixteen days with varying tracks and intensity.

As a degreed meteorologist who worked for the NWS back in the ‘90’s, I find it problematic to see so many persons posting 10-16 day individual model forecasts without the appropriate context. Then again, I reiterate that I see no real benefit to the dissemination of them for intervals exceeding ten days.

Does that include ensembles? I would be lost without my long range Euro ensembles for planning for winter weather.

I personally think ensembles in the Day 10-15 range are quite valuable for determining potential windows of tropical cyclone genesis. They should not be used to determine exact track or intensity.

[ncforecaster89]

I would advise against suggesting specific tracks or genesis locations at this time. It seems possible a TC could form anywhere between the EPAC, GoM, or NW Caribbean around the second or third week of June. These CAG setups are usually well identified by models/ensembles in advance, but it can be hard to pin down the exact track until genesis occurs. It's also possible that nothing forms at all.

Personally, I wish model runs beyond 168 hours (7 days) weren’t available to the public. I see no real substantive value of having model runs out more than ten days in advance. In the relatively rare instance that a particular model prognostication turns out to be fairly accurate, it’s not as much skill as the result of it being run 4 times daily for sixteen days with varying tracks and intensity.

As a degreed meteorologist who worked for the NWS back in the ‘90’s, I find it problematic to see so many persons posting 10-16 day individual model forecasts without the appropriate context. Then again, I reiterate that I see no real benefit to the dissemination of them for intervals exceeding ten days.

I strongly disagree with any sentiment that includes hiding things from the public. It's not a problem when people post this on an enthusiast forum like S2K, this is a discussion. If these things bother you then you're in the wrong place.

You totally misinterpreted my post. Let me clarify that I think there’s no substantive value to any model runs beyond ten days for both the public and operational meteorologists.

As a forum for “discussion”, I shared my own opinion and was NOT directing it towards anyone on this forum. Was thinking of social media postings of the aforementioned provided without proper context; e.g, hurricane could hit SFL two weeks from now with corresponding 336 hour model plot.

[ncforecaster89]

Personally, I wish model runs beyond 168 hours (7 days) weren’t available to the public. I see no real substantive value of having model runs out more than ten days in advance. In the relatively rare instance that a particular model prognostication turns out to be fairly accurate, it’s not as much skill as the result of it being run 4 times daily for sixteen days with varying tracks and intensity.

As a degreed meteorologist who worked for the NWS back in the ‘90’s, I find it problematic to see so many persons posting 10-16 day individual model forecasts without the appropriate context. Then again, I reiterate that I see no real benefit to the dissemination of them for intervals exceeding ten days.

Does that include ensembles? I would be lost without my long range Euro ensembles for planning for winter weather.

I personally think ensembles in the Day 10-15 range are quite valuable for determining potential windows of tropical cyclone genesis. They should not be used to determine exact track or intensity.

I completely agree with your post. Ensembles are certainly beneficial out to the range you specified. I was referencing individual model runs beyond the 7-10 day interval.

Edit: I should’ve emphasized that I wasn’t referring to ensembles as they have shown a reasonable amount of definitive skill in highlighting prospective TC genesis in the extended range (7-15 days).

To reiterate my initial point, there is little substantive value in the dissemination or utilization of single operational model runs beyond 7 days (168 hours). As long as the public is aware that such images beyond that time frame, posted on social media, is more of entertainment value...that’s an entirely different matter.

[eastcoastFL]

Gfs and the ensembles are now hinting at something developing south of Cuba in about 12 days. It then moves off of Cuba and over the keys before the run ends.

Still too early to tell which models will have a grip on this season. I’ll keep watching as always this time of year.








Some decent signals from the ensembles this time of year

[JW-_-]

[CyclonicFury]

EPS continues to show some activity in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico past day 10. That's at least three cycles in a row now, and with support from the GEFS, this is difficult to ignore.

[SFLcane]

EPS continues to show some activity in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico past day 10. That's at least three cycles in a row now, and with support from the GEFS, this is difficult to ignore.

https://i.imgur.com/wL1uQXN.png
https://i.imgur.com/bxdyKZC.png

Yeah it might be real but it's also still pretty far out still. One of those where it'll be clear in about a week whether it's a real signal, or a "constantly at week 2" thing. Haven't seen anything inside 240 though but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on could be a classic June GOM tc.

[tropicwatch]

Could possibly see something sooner with the current set up around Cuba and the western Bahama's.

[cycloneye]

Operational 00z ECMWF shows a hint in Western Caribbean on day 10.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Operational 00z ECMWF shows a hint in Western Caribbean on day 10.

https://i.imgur.com/z6aYTJD.jpg

In range of 10-day EPS now as well:

[AutoPenalti]

GFS keeping it consistent the past 3 runs that something may form.

[Ubuntwo]

https://i.imgur.com/7adZs8e.gif

GFS keeping it consistent the past 3 runs that something may form.

It's been on and off for over 17 runs.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/7adZs8e.gif

GFS keeping it consistent the past 3 runs that something may form.

It's been on and off for over 17 runs.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/849657426621890560/gfs_z850_vort_watl_fh264_trend_1.gif

Not that bad for the long-range, and with the EPS ensembles starting to sniff something out too, the chances for a CAG system within the June 12-15th timeframe is looking pretty decent.

[cycloneye]

GFS delayed.