2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[JW-_-]

hires showing more lime cordial on the runs.

[ROCK]

Models are definitely sniffing something up the EC or GOM. Fun times

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC has solid GOM action in 7 days:



00z GFS begins development in the WCaribbean around 5 days:

[JW-_-]

00z ens possible tracks and max gusts run atm.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1401470477038616577

[xironman]

Looks breezy.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks breezy.

https://i.imgur.com/tiV3I6E.png

That run will pull the Florida crew out of hibernation

[jlauderdal]

Looks breezy.

https://i.imgur.com/tiV3I6E.png

That run will pull the Florida crew out of hibernation

[Jr0d]

Looking more and more likely something will form. The latest GFS suggests hurricane conditions maybe possible for the Florida Keys all the way up the West coast of the state. Fortunately it is a long way out, so prone to big errors. The Canadian is showing a possible hurricane going towards Louisiana....eagerly waiting on the latest EURO.

As someone said, the Florida members will be out of hibernation soon.

[Cat5James]

South Floridian checking in… eagerly awaiting the 12Z model set.

[Ivanhater]

Some pretty aggressive Euro ensemble members. Some Cat 1/2.



Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

[SunnyThoughts]

NW Fla waking up...ugh, its too early for this!

[ElectricStorm]

I see the long range GFS is doing long range GFS things
It does look like there's a decent chance of something developing though so it'll need to be watched for sure

[Kohlecane]

Still a bit early but the MJO, roughly a week from now on any development with the GFS and slightly 5 to 6 days on the CMC very interested to see how the ensembles and euro perform in the next few runs as well. Also this year I am storing a lot of data on these models to see any decent guidance on them, we all know the GFS is fun to watch come Sept But hopefully after last year these models are getting better and better on picking up key atmospheric indicators.

[aspen]

Looks breezy.

https://i.imgur.com/tiV3I6E.png

The system starts consolidating from the CAG on Saturday/Sunday. The 00z CMC has a similar solution of a CAG system getting pulled north and becoming moderately strong in the Gulf before landfall, this time in Louisiana. The time frame of the CMC is also shorter, with some good vorticity seen at 90-144 hours.

[jlauderdal]

South Floridian checking in… eagerly awaiting the 12Z model set.

That ridge has been locked in for 6 weeks thus our super droughty conditions on the east coast of sofla, of course that can change but persistence is the rule

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the typical GFS-on-crack vs ECMWF negative Nancy scenario. I think a sheared, 50-55 knot TS in the Gulf is a good possibility.

[StPeteMike]

Looks like the typical GFS-on-crack vs ECMWF negative Nancy scenario. I think a sheared, 50-55 knot TS in the Gulf is a good possibility.

Fits with climatology. Though this could be a bunch of nothing to Cat 3 storm according the models. The CAG seems to be on overdrive though, so who knows what it will spit out.

[Steve]

Looks like the typical GFS-on-crack vs ECMWF negative Nancy scenario. I think a sheared, 50-55 knot TS in the Gulf is a good possibility.

Maybe a 1 - 2 basin punch if the EPAC progged low crosses over? Could be part of the mix, could be 2 systems. CMC says part of the mix as the low’s origins are EPAC. Maybe the wave in the Caribbean will be part of this too.

CMC 10 days
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=240

[ncforecaster89]

Looks like the typical GFS-on-crack vs ECMWF negative Nancy scenario. I think a sheared, 50-55 knot TS in the Gulf is a good possibility.

Fits with climatology. Though this could be a bunch of nothing to Cat 3 storm according the models. The CAG seems to be on overdrive though, so who knows what it will spit out.

I will share that it isn’t too unusual, relatively speaking, for a CAG to spin up tropical development this time of year as you and many others have noted. The ensembles and the MJO also provide further support for such potential development. If it does materialize, there’s no skill involved at this range attempting to predict a specific track or intensity (as I’m sure you’re already aware).

Given it has been almost 35 years since the U.S. mainland has been hit by a hurricane in the month of June, it’s only a matter of precisely when it will occur again, and not a matter of if it will ultimately transpire. One can’t rule out a major hurricane, either, as Audrey of 1957 provides an analog of what’s possible...albeit highly unlikely during a given year.

Edit: to note that the aforementioned 35- year drought of a June U.S. landfall is the longest on record dating back to 1851. Is this the year that drought ends? We shall see.