EPAC: CARLOS - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Classifiable at this point as long as it can sustain itself.

Take that back. Still not convinced this has a well defined center.

[Kingarabian]

If recon was in it they probably would find one. It's a pretty small system being hit with shear. So a true consistent LLC is going to be tough to see on satellite imagery or ASCAT. No problem sustaining deep convection for the past 36 hours.

[Kingarabian]

TXPZ21 KNES 070044
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 13.2N

D. 108.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL LOOSELY-DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A LLCC LESS THAN 1.25 DEG FROM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN
A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LLCC NOT CLR-CUT
AND PSBL MULTIPLE LLCC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/2048Z 12.9N 108.7E AMSR2


...KONON

EP, 92, 2021060700, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1095W, 30, 1007, LO

[Sciencerocks]

[JW-_-]

The center looks a tad elongated but there is one recognizable on the sat pic.

[Kingarabian]

Hour old GMI pass:

[galaxy401]

Looks like a Tropical Depression to me but it looks like time is running out for this system to get upgraded.

[JW-_-]

Think maybe now the ship has sailed. Back @ 00z tho, it did likely meet the classification requirements wind-wise.

[Kingarabian]

90/90 and no classification. What was this phenomenon if it was never a TC at any point?

[JW-_-]

The fluid model showed the vortex quite well. Not uncommon for the vortex to relocate as it
was doing @ times inside a td. Taking the maximum wind field into account on the earlier micro wind image I agree with you guys who were in favor.

[JW-_-]

Comparision @ 55kmh with 1007mb

[cycloneye]

Down to 60%.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Socorro
Island. However, the system still lacks a well-defined center, as
recent satellite imagery indicates the low-level circulation remains
broad and displaced well east of the thunderstorm activity. The
disturbance still has the potential to become a short-lived tropical
depression today before environmental conditions become less
favorable for development by tonight. The system is forecast to
move slowly west-southwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

I thought this for sure was going to be classified at some point but it doesn't look like it

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 700
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
unfavorable, and development of this system is now unlikely. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1402049711545196544

[JW-_-]

90/90 and no classification. What was this phenomenon if it was never a TC at any point?

Small weakish monsoon depression.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricaneman]

It's dead but did seem to be a depression at one point

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity well west of its center.
Significant development of this system is not expected due to strong
upper-level winds and dry air in the surrounding environment. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.