2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[captainbarbossa19]

How many times must we go through this? Looking at the current SST Atlantic configuration and trying to predict its peak season configuration is like trying to tell me what the weather will be in 5 years at a specific spot. Didn't we all learn this the hard way a few years ago? Seems to me many said that the configuration would be a problem a few years ago and yet somehow, the SST managed to rebound in the tropical Atlantic and became one of the warmest spots at peak season. We do not know what is going to happen. There may be some similar analog years that we can look at, but it is honestly way too early to know what will transpire at peak season now. Also, let's not start on the SAL either. We have seen years when SAL was very thick early and still managed to have a hyperactive season. We have also seen SAL with rather thin levels and hyperactive seasons. Let us see what will happen and stop trying to correlate one or two events as the direct link to seasonal activity.

[Cpv17]

How many times must we go through this? Looking at the current SST Atlantic configuration and trying to predict its peak season configuration is like trying to tell me what the weather will be in 5 years at a specific spot. Didn't we all learn this the hard way a few years ago? Seems to me many said that the configuration would be a problem a few years ago and yet somehow, the SST managed to rebound in the tropical Atlantic and became one of the warmest spots at peak season. We do not know what is going to happen. There may be some similar analog years that we can look at, but it is honestly way too early to know what will transpire at peak season now. Also, let's not start on the SAL either. We have seen years when SAL was very thick early and still managed to have a hyperactive season. We have also seen SAL with rather thin levels and hyperactive seasons. Let us see what will happen and stop trying to correlate one or two events as the direct link to seasonal activity.

Well said. I made a post similar to this a few days ago but then deleted it lol

[tolakram]

How many times must we go through this? Looking at the current SST Atlantic configuration and trying to predict its peak season configuration is like trying to tell me what the weather will be in 5 years at a specific spot. Didn't we all learn this the hard way a few years ago? Seems to me many said that the configuration would be a problem a few years ago and yet somehow, the SST managed to rebound in the tropical Atlantic and became one of the warmest spots at peak season. We do not know what is going to happen. There may be some similar analog years that we can look at, but it is honestly way too early to know what will transpire at peak season now. Also, let's not start on the SAL either. We have seen years when SAL was very thick early and still managed to have a hyperactive season. We have also seen SAL with rather thin levels and hyperactive seasons. Let us see what will happen and stop trying to correlate one or two events as the direct link to seasonal activity.

It's the indicators thread, we discuss indicators.

Look, I have to do the same thing every year. People in global model threads say don't look too far out. People in storm model threads say don't pay attention to the models until there's a center. It get's old. I feel like posts such as this (sorry to pick on you, this isn't unique) are attempting to shutdown conversation and I don't like it. We're in a thread to discuss indicators.

[Category5Kaiju]

Don't look at the 6z GFS from today

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like we're in for a long and busy year based on the indicators so far, it won't be as busy and hellish as last year (knock on wood), but I'd say we're on track for a 15-20 6-9 2-4 kind of year.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1401199864550154246



 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/1401875565481709572



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1401885444787388420



 https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1401579646144192513

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1401199864550154246

A further south ITCZ helps explain the Euro’s above-average ACE estimate, which is very high for the Euro. This would keep AEWs from being too north that they develop over cooler water and end up struggling like last year, so a southern ITCZ could lead to more long-trackers and high ACE storms.

[BYG Jacob]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1401199864550154246

A further south ITCZ helps explain the Euro’s above-average ACE estimate, which is very high for the Euro. This would keep AEWs from being too north that they develop over cooler water and end up struggling like last year, so a southern ITCZ could lead to more long-trackers and high ACE storms.

It also allows storms to get much farther west before turning north

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1401199864550154246

A further south ITCZ helps explain the Euro’s above-average ACE estimate, which is very high for the Euro. This would keep AEWs from being too north that they develop over cooler water and end up struggling like last year, so a southern ITCZ could lead to more long-trackers and high ACE storms.

It also allows storms to get much farther west before turning north

Definitely a concerning model forecast. How well has the Euro been in forecasting seasonal indicators? I’m asking this because it usually has a dry bias and has been awful with TCG for the last year and a half.

[SFLcane]

Cant help but think the euro is way too dry on those maps bias in full affect.

[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1401199864550154246

This may be important as if the Euro is right with the ITCZ we have to watch for possible long track hurricanes

[Shell Mound]

New June Euro steering is out…Don’t look now Florida. Rather ominous

It’s dry bias though is ridiculous

https://i.postimg.cc/t4wrjkhM/3678-C3-E3-C1-AE-4-AED-9-F95-4644-D5-CEEBDC.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgtdJJF9/F685505-B-BA53-4726-800-D-2-D9-EF0-D4-BCC0.jpg

That ridge is actually too far north for landfalls to occur along most of the U.S. East Coast, much less Florida. The EC’s precipitation outlook suggests OTS tracks:



Note the pronounced dryness in the Gulf, over/near peninsular Florida, and just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Most storms seem to curve over the subtropics.

[Loveweather12]

So are you saying that their won’t be landfalls this year? I’m a rookie in weather and just wanted to understand.

New June Euro steering is out…Don’t look now Florida. Rather ominous

It’s dry bias though is ridiculous

https://i.postimg.cc/t4wrjkhM/3678-C3-E3-C1-AE-4-AED-9-F95-4644-D5-CEEBDC.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgtdJJF9/F685505-B-BA53-4726-800-D-2-D9-EF0-D4-BCC0.jpg

That ridge is actually too far north for landfalls to occur along most of the U.S. East Coast, much less Florida. The EC’s precipitation outlook suggests OTS tracks:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3IPryhWYAg-Z--?format=jpg&name=large

Note the pronounced dryness in the Gulf, over/near peninsular Florida, and just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Most storms seem to curve over the subtropics.

[tolakram]

New June Euro steering is out…Don’t look now Florida. Rather ominous

It’s dry bias though is ridiculous

https://i.postimg.cc/t4wrjkhM/3678-C3-E3-C1-AE-4-AED-9-F95-4644-D5-CEEBDC.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgtdJJF9/F685505-B-BA53-4726-800-D-2-D9-EF0-D4-BCC0.jpg

That ridge is actually too far north for landfalls to occur along most of the U.S. East Coast, much less Florida. The EC’s precipitation outlook suggests OTS tracks:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3IPryhWYAg-Z--?format=jpg&name=large

Note the pronounced dryness in the Gulf, over/near peninsular Florida, and just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Most storms seem to curve over the subtropics.

That's a misreading of the long range forecast in my opinion. It's showing a ridging pattern but not exactly where it will set up. There is always at least a 95% chance (made up number, but a high chance) any storm will recurve before the coast in any year. The way I look at these is in identifying conditions that might indicate if these odds change at all. Maybe only a 93% chance of a recurve for example.

[Category5Kaiju]

So are you saying that their won’t be landfalls this year? I’m a rookie in weather and just wanted to understand.

New June Euro steering is out…Don’t look now Florida. Rather ominous

It’s dry bias though is ridiculous

https://i.postimg.cc/t4wrjkhM/3678-C3-E3-C1-AE-4-AED-9-F95-4644-D5-CEEBDC.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgtdJJF9/F685505-B-BA53-4726-800-D-2-D9-EF0-D4-BCC0.jpg

That ridge is actually too far north for landfalls to occur along most of the U.S. East Coast, much less Florida. The EC’s precipitation outlook suggests OTS tracks:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3IPryhWYAg-Z--?format=jpg&name=large

Note the pronounced dryness in the Gulf, over/near peninsular Florida, and just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Most storms seem to curve over the subtropics.

Well not exactly, this is one model run and things can change if another run was performed, and especially in wx there's a saying to not put too much faith in one model run. Rather, a consensus with many model runs done over a certain period of time is what is more important.

Also just because a pattern looks like it will support many OTS tracks does not mean it is going to make 100% of every storm that forms recurve. Remember 2019, for instance. That was a heavy recurve year unless you remember Dorian, which just happened to get trapped under a ridge of high pressure and enter the right conditions for disaster to strike. 2011 also, Irene.

Btw it's ok to be a rookie; welcome to the tropical wx community! I myself started tracking hurricanes in 2017, and while I am a biology major, tracking hurricanes and tropical weather has been and will always be my favorite hobby outside of the life science field that I am in!

[USTropics]

I would hesitate to use seasonal precipitation rate anomalies to forecast tropical system tracks, their signatures are not accurately depicted when we're using 3-month seasonal forecasts. I plotted the ECMWF June forecast for ASO from 2020 below and the actual observed precip anomalies observed during ASO from last year for verification. These are 1920x1080 so download them to zoom in:

[chaser1]

New June Euro steering is out…Don’t look now Florida. Rather ominous

It’s dry bias though is ridiculous

https://i.postimg.cc/t4wrjkhM/3678-C3-E3-C1-AE-4-AED-9-F95-4644-D5-CEEBDC.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgtdJJF9/F685505-B-BA53-4726-800-D-2-D9-EF0-D4-BCC0.jpg

That ridge is actually too far north for landfalls to occur along most of the U.S. East Coast, much less Florida. The EC’s precipitation outlook suggests OTS tracks:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3IPryhWYAg-Z--?format=jpg&name=large

Note the pronounced dryness in the Gulf, over/near peninsular Florida, and just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Most storms seem to curve over the subtropics.

That's a misreading of the long range forecast in my opinion. It's showing a ridging pattern but not exactly where it will set up. There is always at least a 95% chance (made up number, but a high chance) any storm will recurve before the coast in any year. The way I look at these is in identifying conditions that might indicate if these odds change at all. Maybe only a 93% chance of a recurve for example.

Obviously one must view these and other indicators with proper perspective. Assuming that the Euro's August and September Height anomaly projections verify, I would agree that an eastward or southeast approaching tropical cyclone might pose an increased risk to the Bahamas, Florida, and North Gulf Coast (from Louisiana to the Fla Panhandle). I see this as a plausible solution primarily as a result of the suggested orientation of the forecast anomalous mid level ridging. Still, the specific dynamics for any given week during the season could have enough deviation where the greatest heights could also be a bit further east which then could result in a threat to the Mid-Atlantic. My take-away does not preclude that poleward recurving simply will not occur, but those that would recurve are more likely to represent a cluster of tracks that originate from further east and perhaps a bit further north of the normal MDR. On the other hand, those systems that develop near (or west of 60W) might be those that the suggested mean steering forecast might result in a ridge trapping pattern with a primarily westward track.

The Euro precip anomaly forecast offers much less insight as far as I'm concerned. First off, this is a "mean precip anomaly forecast" for September, October, and November. Two-thirds of this period largely take in climo periods where I wouldn't be even looking much east of the Lesser Antilles for potential threat. The map might imply an active but southward suppression of the ITCZ but all in all suggesting neutral conditions for the far W. Atlantic, Caribbean, and GOM. It certainly doesn't suggest recurrent development or storm tracks in the Caribbean, Gulf, or off the S.E. Seaboard...... but it also does not dismiss the one or two that might occur either.

Overall conditions for development notwithstanding, the few grains of salt that I "might" take away from all the above would be that August/early Sept might pose more threat to the Bahamas and S.E. CONUS then later Sept. or October development would. Again though, these are just a few grains of salt.

[AutoPenalti]

Shellmound is anything but a rookie, definitely has insightful (and at times very confusing to understand) posts based on real-time analysis, of course when it comes down to forecasting into the future, it becomes increasingly ambitious to analyze the little details.

My biggest concern was the increased ACE of 130% from the normally quieter Euro, and the GoG pattern that can potential move the ITCZ further South.

Edit: After publishing this, I noticed that OP was mentioning another user, but still, it's very interesting the amount of detail he puts into the forecasts.

[GrayLancer18]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1401931785009778689

[USTropics]

NMME June data just became available, here are the precipitation anomalies for ASO:



Compared to May forecast: