2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

I had to move a few posts to moderation.

Let's stick to model runs please.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS



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[cycloneye]

Now all the model runs can be posted in another thread as NHC begins the TWO's for SW Caribbean area.

Watching SW Caribbean

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS.

Note, this is not what the NHC is circling in the SW Caribbean. This starts to come together in the NW Caribbean around June 16.



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[Steve]

12z GFS is only out to 282 hours and has a system moving toward the FL Panhandle. It's TS/1000mb on the low-res at TT. Not sure if it's going to stall out and move toward the TX Coast or go inland in Florida. Obviously this is way too far out to put any stock in it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=282

Another 12 hours is out as I'm typing this (out to 294). Yeah, it moves inland on the Panhandle (Walton/Bay/Gulf Counties). A few days prior, there is a little spin that emerges off the coast into the Gulf that spins up and moves back across the SE into the Atlantic. So that's maybe something to watch for if a MCS or something comes down.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=294

CMC has a bit more to run and is only out to about 5 days so far.

[AdamFirst]

And the EURO shows a system in the Bay of Campeche at the end of its run (hour 240), an apparent EPAC crossover. Maybe the signal is there after all with the gyre. Still a long way off!

[Ivanhater]

12Z Canadian



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[Steve]

Now all the model runs can be posted in another thread as NHC begins the TWO's for SW Caribbean area.

Watching SW Caribbean

Wait, so we can't post model specifics about the SW Caribbean in that thread or we can? I'm confused.

[Ivanhater]

Now all the model runs can be posted in another thread as NHC begins the TWO's for SW Caribbean area.

Watching SW Caribbean

Wait, so we can't post model specifics about the SW Caribbean in that thread or we can? I'm confused.

The area highlighted for the SW Caribbean is for within the next 5 days and will likely be dropped soon.

All the models are showing something else. BOC/Yucatan in the 10 day range

[Steve]

Gotcha. I was assuming it was the origin thread for whatever invest(s) come later. I'll keep things on this one then. CMC is a little slower than the 00z run and at 10 days has a 1000mb low SE of Brownsville.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=240

[Ivanhater]

Gotcha. I was assuming it was the origin thread for whatever invest(s) come later. I'll keep things on this one then. CMC is a little slower than the 00z run and at 10 days has a 1000mb low SE of Brownsville.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=240

Yeah, it gets a little muddy especially with CAG development.

It does seem the CMC and Euro are hinting at a BOC crossover around day 10?

[Steve]

Yeah. The GFS kind of wants to as well, but it ejects the FL bound system from the Yucatan. Maybe it's coming around to the same general idea as well. At least there is some consensus that the SW or W Gulf are the places to watch after next weekend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60712&fh=6

MJO looks like it wants to cross back through the circle down to around Phase 2 which of course is an active phase. We'll have to see how that evolves as well as the surface and upper modeling.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro ending with a strengthening storm heading north.

Pretty strong signal of a storm in the Gulf in 10 days.



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[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET has potential subtropical development.

[OuterBanker]

As usual the GFS is windshield wiping in the long term. At the moment, it seems back to the FL panhandle to NC coast scenario again. CMC has been rather consistent with a La/MS system. It looks like the GFS is dropping the CAG scenario for a w Carib wave while CMC and Euro scenario looks like a crossover. Interesting situation, the CAG is a usual hotspot for early systems and the MJO will be in a favorable position for the w Carib wave. A w coast Fl landfall would help the drought there. But I’m concerned about a slow-moving rain maker making landfall from Tx to La which has measured rain in feet instead of inches this spring.

[Cpv17]

As usual the GFS is windshield wiping in the long term. At the moment, it seems back to the FL panhandle to NC coast scenario again. CMC has been rather consistent with a La/MS system. It looks like the GFS is dropping the CAG scenario for a w Carib wave while CMC and Euro scenario looks like a crossover. Interesting situation, the CAG is a usual hotspot for early systems and the MJO will be in a favorable position for the w Carib wave. A w coast Fl landfall would help the drought there. But I’m concerned about a slow-moving rain maker making landfall from Tx to La which has measured rain in feet instead of inches this spring.

Yeah I feel like Texas or Louisiana is a likely destination right now. Btw I’ve had two feet of rain here in southeast TX since April 30th.

[Homie J]

18z GFS manages to get not one but two storms into the gulf! Very long range however

[StPeteMike]

We’ll likely only see one, but that will be quite a sight of having back to back storms in the Gulf in June. We will have more of an understanding what system takes most of the moisture with it and what area of the GOM coast will see what looks like a TS better come Wednesday/Thursday.

[cycloneye]

Now all the model runs can be posted in another thread as NHC begins the TWO's for SW Caribbean area.

Watching SW Caribbean

Wait, so we can't post model specifics about the SW Caribbean in that thread or we can? I'm confused.

The area highlighted for the SW Caribbean is for within the next 5 days and will likely be dropped soon.

All the models are showing something else. BOC/Yucatan in the 10 day range

They stick with SW Caribbean and in fact went up to 30%.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS continues the Gulf storm in 10 days