WPAC: INVEST 91W

[Hayabusa]

I thought it's the invest the models have been trying to develop over the SCS but it's an invest way out near the dateline

91W.INVEST

91W.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.6.5N.168.5E

[Nancy Smar]

91W INVEST 210607 0000 6.5N 168.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Literally no support the only closest support was if we go back 5 days ago from the GFS runs when it was hyping twin-triple systems ...

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm

ABPW10 PGTW 080030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080030Z-080600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING
AREA OF CONVECTION WITH FEEDER BANDS TO THE NORTH AND FLARING
CONVECTION WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS JUST SOUTH OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 071913Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. INVEST 91W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-
10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING FROM INVEST 91W, HOWEVER, JTWC WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A FAVORABLE
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[mrbagyo]

I'm quite surprised that it's already the rapid scan floater target area of the Himawari-8.

[Hayabusa]

Gone from the advisory, wish it could've been a sleeper.