Texas Summer 2021

[bubba hotep]

Still a couple more rounds of hi-res model runs to go but this next batch of storms might have WPC upgrading some areas from Slight to Mod for Excessive Rainfall.







Then it looks like we might actually dry out for a few days into next weekend and then all eyes turn towards the Gulf as we watch for something to form in the WCAB or BOC.

[BrokenGlass]

This is a rain bomb over the northern metro, just sitting and POURING rain and back building over the same areas for hours... I'm glad I'm home now. Stay safe out there!

Insane. My house received 4.85 inches of rain between 10 pm and 1 am.


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[Cpv17]

That rain up in there in NTX wasn’t even in the forecast. Wtf lol crazy unpredictable weather.

This is kinda out there but last night’s steering pattern from the Euro looked kinda scary for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

That is a large area of 1'+ rain on the 12z 3k NAM and it shifted it west some from 06z. I'm not sure what that much rain would do if that gets moved west a bit more, given all the rain we have had recently.

[DonWrk]

Looks like the faucet could shut off after the Monday system

[gpsnowman]

Looks like the faucet could shut off after the Monday system

It was going to happen but what an incredible stretch of rain and below normal temps lasting well into June. 90's here we come. Boo hiss.

[bubba hotep]

More Flash Flood Watches than Tornado Watches so far this year?

[Brent]

Looks like the faucet could shut off after the Monday system

It was going to happen but what an incredible stretch of rain and below normal temps lasting well into June. 90's here we come. Boo hiss.

Yeah it's been a fun ride but we knew it was coming eventually. Ugh the humidity is gonna suck though lol

[Haris]

Looks like the faucet could shut off after the Monday system

It was going to happen but what an incredible stretch of rain and below normal temps lasting well into June. 90's here we come. Boo hiss.

Yeah it's been a fun ride but we knew it was coming eventually. Ugh the humidity is gonna suck though lol

And mosquitoes

[Texas Snowman]

While I don’t want a really hot, dry run of 2011 like weather, I’ve got to admit that even I’m ready for a little summertime.

For two or three weeks, that is!

[cheezyWXguy]

Judging by the short term afd from fwd, it is conceivable that we could get one more round tonight before the faucet shuts off for a week or so. They seem to think it could hold together better than the models currently depict. Wouldn’t be the first time lately

[starsfan65]

Judging by the short term afd from fwd, it is conceivable that we could get one more round tonight before the faucet shuts off for a week or so. They seem to think it could hold together better than the models currently depict. Wouldn’t be the first time lately

It will Weaken.

[cheezyWXguy]

Judging by the short term afd from fwd, it is conceivable that we could get one more round tonight before the faucet shuts off for a week or so. They seem to think it could hold together better than the models currently depict. Wouldn’t be the first time lately

It will Weaken.

Probably, but maybe not. 30-50% chances don’t offer high confidence, but it’s still something.

“ If it can organize, then there does appear to be a favorable setup for the complex to once again make a run at North Texas, given a developing modest low level jet and the aforementioned instability axis and weak ascent. We've raised PoPs to 40-50% for the overnight hours, but these may need to be nudged upward later this evening. Given the uncertainty in the forecast and areal coverage of thunderstorms, we'll hold off on any additional Flash Flood Watches for tonight, but locally heavy rainfall would be the main threat.”

[DonWrk]

Wow the 06z GFS has it all for Texas come mid month. A rain bomb right over the metro then a tropical system moving through the heart of the state lol. We will see.

[cstrunk]

Weak tornado recorded on video just west of Tyler, TX a little while ago. About the same time there was a small thunderstorm just NE of my office building in Longview (I'm on the 4th floor) and we had a great view of a rotating wall cloud that I took a video of. Never saw any touchdowns and then it moved too far away. Never warned. These little storms are very tropical in nature.

Still a tornado warning for Rusk County.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I wanted to let you guys know that I have moved to Denver Colorado! Actually more in Lakewood but whatever. I will still be active in this board and interested in Texas weather so I'm not leaving entirely, just wanted to let you guys know!

[bubba hotep]

I wanted to let you guys know that I have moved to Denver Colorado! Actually more in Lakewood but whatever. I will still be active in this board and interested in Texas weather so I'm not leaving entirely, just wanted to let you guys know!

Good luck to you up there! That is a great area for weather, most people think cold and snow, but the Spring and Summer months have plenty of storm chasing chances.

[bubba hotep]

That's a legit storm headed towards Texas on the 12z Euro.

[bubba hotep]

That's a legit storm headed towards Texas on the 12z Euro.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021060812/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_watl_11.png

Also, very strong EPS support for something in the Western Gulf.

[Cpv17]

That's a legit storm headed towards Texas on the 12z Euro.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021060812/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_watl_11.png

Unless it starts to hook left a bit, that would be more of a problem for Louisiana than Texas.