2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

UKMET has been on and off but more bullish compared to the past three invests:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.9N 94.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.06.2021 120 14.1N 95.2W 1004 30
0000UTC 15.06.2021 132 14.5N 94.5W 1002 34
1200UTC 15.06.2021 144 15.8N 94.7W 999 45

[Yellow Evan]

Likely convective feedback but 18z GFS slams a potent hurricane into Nayarit.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 9 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred
miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico and Guatemala during
the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form this weekend while the system drifts generally northward.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions
of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the
weekend. See products from your local meteorological service for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS continues to bring back 92E and continues to show a deep system off of Mexico.

00z Euro attempts to bring 92E and also shows the same system as the GFS off of Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad trough of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south of Salina Cruz, Mexico, and is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form this weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
could occur over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
late this week and into early next week. See products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Appears to be trough/large area of low pressure that comes off Baja California that dips and makes its way into the EPAC. This area will be accompanied with much weaker trades. So there's a good chance for the EPAC waters between 10N-20N to warm up further.

[JW-_-]

Ens thinking is looking confident, we may see some further activity. Over the 10 days.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form this weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
could occur over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
late this week and into early next week. See products from your
local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure along the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible
over the next few days as the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS no longer develops the 0/40 before landfall, just shows a hurricane into Jalisco/Nayarit.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF through 72 hours now showing a 0/40 spinning up in the GOT.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS looking pretty active for the next 10 days. The question is whether something will consolidate and become an actual TC.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS still has a broad tropical cyclone in 10 days,

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF has nothing aside from 93E.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS keeps the EPAC active through the next 16 days:

[Kingarabian]

Large area between 100W/110W might be the next invest tag:


Model solutions are on and off on it, with any development likely delayed until it reaches and begins to rotate just off the Mexican coast.'

Has some EPS support:


www.weathermodels.com

[Kingarabian]

Just by the amount of convection and the nature of the TC's that are forming or trying to form, I must say I am surprised. It's looking like mid August out there.

[Kingarabian]

Large area between 100W/110W might be the next invest tag:
[url]https://i.imgur.com/mPIKpLW.png[url]

Model solutions are on and off on it, with any development likely delayed until it reaches and begins to rotate just off the Mexican coast.'

Has some EPS support:
[url]https://i.imgur.com/NdNeKeb.png[url]

http://www.weathermodels.com

Pretty good support for the next AOI in the EPAC. Probably will be circled in a few more days:



http://www.weathermodels.com

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form by late this week a
couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Some gradual development is possible thereafter as the
system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings this into Colima.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS brings this into Michoacan.