EPAC: INVEST 93E

[Subtrop]

93E INVEST 210610 1800 12.7N 98.8W EPAC 25 1008

[Kingarabian]

Seeing it's associated with a CAG, unsurprisingly the models have been flip flopping a lot in regards to its future track and intensity.

[Kingarabian]

Granted this 10 hour old SSMI pass is lower resolution, there seems to be a pretty good improvement in its overall structure.

SSMI:


SSMIS F18:

[Kingarabian]

Odds should be higher IMO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a little more
concentrated today and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression could form by this
weekend while the system drifts north-northeastward. Heavy rainfall
will be possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico through early next week. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[CyclonicFury]

Lots of question marks with this one. There's a chance, as suggested by the 12z ECMWF, that we could see rapid development with the remnants potentially crossing over into the BoC in 4-5 days. There's also a chance 93E meanders or avoids landfall entirely.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS bring this onshore within 4 days.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Lots of question marks with this one. There's a chance, as suggested by the 12z ECMWF, that we could see rapid development with the remnants potentially crossing over into the BoC in 4-5 days. There's also a chance 93E meanders or avoids landfall entirely.

If it's to crossover, in the short term how strong it is could possibly influence the strength of the future BOC system.

[Kingarabian]

Models don't make much out of this one either.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning
in association with a broad area of low pressure a couple hundred
miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system
drifts north-northeastward. Heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through early next
week. See products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET makes this a moderate TS.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Not sure if this is 93E but it's almost the spot but in 4 days:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.8N 94.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2021 108 13.8N 94.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 17.06.2021 120 14.0N 93.6W 1003 32
1200UTC 17.06.2021 132 14.8N 93.5W 998 44
0000UTC 18.06.2021 144 17.7N 92.4W 1005 31[Div]

[/Div]

[cycloneye]

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized this morning in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about a
hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear somewhat conducive for some additional
development, and a tropical depression could still form over the
weekend, as long as the system remains over water while drifting
northeastward. Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking a little more vertically stacked but I don’t think this will develop a closed center before landfall.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association
with a weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear to be somewhat conducive for further development over the
next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression could still
form during that time. By early next week, the system is forecast to
interact with land and a larger disturbance developing to its north,
and further development is not anticipated. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12/1730 UTC 13.7N 97.2W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Increase in convection there but I think 92L is going to become the dominant system and eat up 93E.