2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

TCHP is not on a 2020/2017 level in terms of extent, but it is a shade above 2019 and leagues above 2018.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/852950315644485682/TCHP.png

What catches my eye is that loop current in the Gulf, like if I recall last year had a thing where that specific patch of the Gulf had below average UOHC; this graphic seems to suggest the opposite at least for this year. Additionally, maybe you guys know this website or not, but at least personally I've found it quite interesting. It shows how strong a storm in a certain part of the Atlantic could potentially get given ssts and UOHC, and it updates daily. In fact I remember referring off of this map last year when Zeta happened, and the graphic showed that a max hurricane intensity in the Louisiana coast where Zeta ultimately hit was a low end Cat 3/high end Cat 2.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot

[toad strangler]

If anything didn't the 2020 season show us ACE is a bit of a silly metric to put all your eggs into? The cooling of the MDR this early seems irrelevant given how most landfalling impactful storms don't ramp up until closer to the coast.

ACE isn't a metric I pay any attention to as a tropical wx enthusiast. I do realize it's rightful place in the seasonal analysis tool belt and it's fun to talk about how much ACE a long tracker racks up. For a day lol. But it's not an indicator.

[Category5Kaiju]

I know there are some notable exceptions, but in general a storm with high ACE is able to rack up such points because they are fish storms and recurve with more time over water

[HurricaneEnzo]

Crazy how every year everybody seems to hyper-focus on MDR temps. It's a little cool but I don't think it will have any bearing on how many storms the MDR produces. Will we have an Isabel or Irma out there in the MDR? Probably not, but anything close to average temps is still warm enough for development. Just look at last year, warm anomalies and while there was MDR development most of the storms struggled to do much while in the MDR. It wasn't until they got further West or North that they did anything. There are far too many variables. And as we have seen if conditions improve the MDR is quick to warm up. It was below average weeks ago but then drastically warmed up to near average in a span of only 2 weeks. It has since went back down but I don't think it is likely to stay like that. There is a beautiful wave out there off of Africa right now. Has no chance of forming because of other things such as shear and SAL but in peak season it would likely be a problem despite cooler temps.

[CyclonicFury]

Crazy how every year everybody seems to hyper-focus on MDR temps. It's a little cool but I don't think it will have any bearing on how many storms the MDR produces. Will we have an Isabel or Irma out there in the MDR? Probably not, but anything close to average temps is still warm enough for development. Just look at last year, warm anomalies and while there was MDR development most of the storms struggled to do much while in the MDR. It wasn't until they got further West or North that they did anything. There are far too many variables. And as we have seen if conditions improve the MDR is quick to warm up. It was below average weeks ago but then drastically warmed up to near average in a span of only 2 weeks. It has since went back down but I don't think it is likely to stay like that.

2018, which had a near-record cold MDR in May and June, had 4 hurricanes form in the MDR, while 2020, which had a near-record warm MDR at times, had only 1 hurricane form in the MDR. I don't think the cool MDR will be a huge negative factor this year because the tropical Pacific is likely to be even cooler. We've seen several -ENSO seasons with a cool MDR that were very active to hyperactive (1996 and 1999 are examples).

[Category5Kaiju]

Crazy how every year everybody seems to hyper-focus on MDR temps. It's a little cool but I don't think it will have any bearing on how many storms the MDR produces. Will we have an Isabel or Irma out there in the MDR? Probably not, but anything close to average temps is still warm enough for development. Just look at last year, warm anomalies and while there was MDR development most of the storms struggled to do much while in the MDR. It wasn't until they got further West or North that they did anything. There are far too many variables. And as we have seen if conditions improve the MDR is quick to warm up. It was below average weeks ago but then drastically warmed up to near average in a span of only 2 weeks. It has since went back down but I don't think it is likely to stay like that.

2018, which had a near-record cold MDR in May and June, had 4 hurricanes form in the MDR, while 2020, which had a near-record warm MDR at times, had only 1 hurricane form in the MDR. I don't think the cool MDR will be a huge negative factor this year because the tropical Pacific is likely to be even cooler. We've seen several -ENSO seasons with a cool MDR that were very active to hyperactive (1996 and 1999 are examples).

Also here is 2004's sst anomalies profile at around this time of the year (MDR did not look too impressive back then either):

[aspen]

TCHP is not on a 2020/2017 level in terms of extent, but it is a shade above 2019 and leagues above 2018.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/852950315644485682/TCHP.png

Do you have the TCHP charts for June 2017-20 for comparison?

This year’s Atlantic TCHP being between 2017/20 and 2018/19 might suggest an ACE total between those seasons. ENSO state is probably going to be between 2017/20 (cool to La Niña) and 2018/19 (weak El Niño), and the WAM will be strong just like the other four seasons, so barring a last minute switch to a true -AMO or warm ENSO, an ACE total between 130 (2018/19) and 180 (2020) seems like a reasonable guess.

[Ubuntwo]

TCHP is not on a 2020/2017 level in terms of extent, but it is a shade above 2019 and leagues above 2018.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/852950315644485682/TCHP.png

Do you have the TCHP charts for June 2017-20 for comparison?

This year’s Atlantic TCHP being between 2017/20 and 2018/19 might suggest an ACE total between those seasons. ENSO state is probably going to be between 2017/20 (cool to La Niña) and 2018/19 (weak El Niño), and the WAM will be strong just like the other four seasons, so barring a last minute switch to a true -AMO or warm ENSO, an ACE total between 130 (2018/19) and 180 (2020) seems like a reasonable guess.

Sure, these are all on June 10th.

2017:


2018:


2019:


2020:


And 2021 again for comparison:


With the exception of the MDR, we're actually very close to 2017.

[aspen]

TCHP is not on a 2020/2017 level in terms of extent, but it is a shade above 2019 and leagues above 2018.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/852950315644485682/TCHP.png

Do you have the TCHP charts for June 2017-20 for comparison?

This year’s Atlantic TCHP being between 2017/20 and 2018/19 might suggest an ACE total between those seasons. ENSO state is probably going to be between 2017/20 (cool to La Niña) and 2018/19 (weak El Niño), and the WAM will be strong just like the other four seasons, so barring a last minute switch to a true -AMO or warm ENSO, an ACE total between 130 (2018/19) and 180 (2020) seems like a reasonable guess.

Sure, these are all on June 10th.

2017:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/852991756219318322/tcheat_atlantic_2017061012.png?width=901&height=676

2018:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/852991707745222686/tcheat_atlantic_2018061012.png?width=901&height=676

2019:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/852992025792348160/tcheat_atlantic_2019061012.png

2020:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/852992089490063370/tcheat_atlantic_2020061012.png

And 2021 again for comparison:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/852950315644485682/TCHP.png?width=901&height=676

With the exception of the MDR, we're actually very close to 2017.

Oh yeah we’re way above 2018. I’d say this year’s TCHP is closest to 2019 overall, with the Caribbean being similar to 2017 as well like you said. This year’s MDR TCHP isn’t that bad when compared to the previous four seasons.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so with all this talk of this cool MDR/inactive season/warm MDR/when will the MDR warm up commotion going on, I've decided to simply show some of the more recent active hurricane season sst anomaly profiles at around this date in the year for easier reference. I already did 2004, so I'll do it for some of the other years.

1998


1999


2003


2005


2008


2010


2013 (I'll include this one just because this year is brought up virtually every hurricane season)


2017


And of course, last year (which if anybody has any insight on how to obtain the sst profiles of past years with Coral Reef Watch then that would be greatly appreciated as I am having some trouble finding the sst anomalies map of 2020, especially after the transition from 50 km resolution to 5 km resolution).

[GrayLancer18]

And of course, last year (which if anybody has any insight on how to obtain the sst profiles of past years with Coral Reef Watch then that would be greatly appreciated as I am having some trouble finding the sst anomalies map of 2020, especially after the transition from 50 km resolution to 5 km resolution).

Here you go! SST Anomalies of last year.



You need to used this link: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/

[Category5Kaiju]

And of course, last year (which if anybody has any insight on how to obtain the sst profiles of past years with Coral Reef Watch then that would be greatly appreciated as I am having some trouble finding the sst anomalies map of 2020, especially after the transition from 50 km resolution to 5 km resolution).

Here you go! SST Anomalies of last year.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1_op/image/daily/ssta/png/2020/06/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20200611.png

You need to used this link: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/

Ah great, thank you!

[toad strangler]

MDR looks A OK to me still 2 months out from traditional peak season go time.

[galaxy401]

That is a big pool of colder water between Hawaii and Baja California. It was there last year too but it's even colder now.

[JetFuel_SE]

That is a big pool of colder water between Hawaii and Baja California. It was there last year too but it's even colder now.

-PDO. Favors the Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I remember earlier this year when there was talk of this year being another 2006 with shift to El Nino, although given this graphic at least, at this point I am inclined to say with decent confidence that with regards to ENSO, 2021 will likely not be another 2006 and that El Nino will likely not occur this year.

[Shell Mound]

Crazy how every year everybody seems to hyper-focus on MDR temps. It's a little cool but I don't think it will have any bearing on how many storms the MDR produces. Will we have an Isabel or Irma out there in the MDR? Probably not, but anything close to average temps is still warm enough for development. Just look at last year, warm anomalies and while there was MDR development most of the storms struggled to do much while in the MDR. It wasn't until they got further West or North that they did anything. There are far too many variables. And as we have seen if conditions improve the MDR is quick to warm up. It was below average weeks ago but then drastically warmed up to near average in a span of only 2 weeks. It has since went back down but I don't think it is likely to stay like that.

2018, which had a near-record cold MDR in May and June, had 4 hurricanes form in the MDR, while 2020, which had a near-record warm MDR at times, had only 1 hurricane form in the MDR. I don't think the cool MDR will be a huge negative factor this year because the tropical Pacific is likely to be even cooler. We've seen several -ENSO seasons with a cool MDR that were very active to hyperactive (1996 and 1999 are examples).

[Category5Kaiju]

Here's another UOHC map that updates daily and is a great visual that I personally look at every morning; notice the Loop Current in the Gulf. While I am not a Einstein-level expert on it, if I am not mistaken, storms like Rita, Katrina, Camille, and Ivan exploded in strength after passing over that. We'll have to see how warm that particular part of the Gulf gets later this season, although if it indeed is a localized spot that is warmer than the surrounding Gulf waters during ASO, then that could be a potential problem, especially if we were to have a storm under low wind shear and little dry air traverse that.

[JetFuel_SE]

Crazy how every year everybody seems to hyper-focus on MDR temps. It's a little cool but I don't think it will have any bearing on how many storms the MDR produces. Will we have an Isabel or Irma out there in the MDR? Probably not, but anything close to average temps is still warm enough for development. Just look at last year, warm anomalies and while there was MDR development most of the storms struggled to do much while in the MDR. It wasn't until they got further West or North that they did anything. There are far too many variables. And as we have seen if conditions improve the MDR is quick to warm up. It was below average weeks ago but then drastically warmed up to near average in a span of only 2 weeks. It has since went back down but I don't think it is likely to stay like that.

2018, which had a near-record cold MDR in May and June, had 4 hurricanes form in the MDR, while 2020, which had a near-record warm MDR at times, had only 1 hurricane form in the MDR. I don't think the cool MDR will be a huge negative factor this year because the tropical Pacific is likely to be even cooler. We've seen several -ENSO seasons with a cool MDR that were very active to hyperactive (1996 and 1999 are examples).

https://i.postimg.cc/RFSC8SYb/SST19969-1.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/prob/images/prob_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/T2Z1265h/Weighted-Analogs-1.png
Note: Last image is from Tropical Tidbits

Please remove that last image, it's using corrupted data, and isn't accurate. It's basing it off this thing, which is obviously not accurate.

[Category5Kaiju]

2018, which had a near-record cold MDR in May and June, had 4 hurricanes form in the MDR, while 2020, which had a near-record warm MDR at times, had only 1 hurricane form in the MDR. I don't think the cool MDR will be a huge negative factor this year because the tropical Pacific is likely to be even cooler. We've seen several -ENSO seasons with a cool MDR that were very active to hyperactive (1996 and 1999 are examples).

https://i.postimg.cc/RFSC8SYb/SST19969-1.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/prob/images/prob_ensemble_tmpsfc_season2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/T2Z1265h/Weighted-Analogs-1.png
Note: Last image is from Tropical Tidbits

Please remove that last image, it's using corrupted data, and isn't accurate. It's basing it off this thing, which is obviously not accurate.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716221079323934742/853294243779313705/NMME_fcst.png

Yikes if that were real I would move to Mars immediately