WPAC: KOGUMA - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

The SCS system

92W.INVEST

92W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.17.2N.115.5E

[Nancy Smar]

92W INVEST 210610 0000 17.2N 115.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 100830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100830Z-110600ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.6N 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100534Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER AND THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDING TO
APPROXIMATELY 100NM FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING THAT 92W IS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (<15 KTS) AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30C) OFFSET BY A CURRENT LACK OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES AND
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND
REORIENT THUS INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

WWJP27 RJTD 100600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 16N 113E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Nancy Smar]

CMA thinks that 92W could steadily consolidate and intensify into a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm over the next 48 hrs as it approaches the east of Hainan Island.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ50 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 17.9N 113.3E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 19.2N 108.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 130600UTC 20.2N 106.7E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 140600UTC 21.7N 104.5E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Meow]

WTPQ50 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 17.9N 113.3E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 19.2N 108.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 130600UTC 20.2N 106.7E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 140600UTC 21.7N 104.5E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

To cross Hainan quickly.

[Nancy Smar]

WTSS20 VHHH 110745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 110600 UTC, IT WAS
CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT NINE
DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST
(113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPQ20 BABJ 110600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 01 INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC
00HR 17.6N 113.3E 1000HPA 13M/S
MOVE WNW 23KM/H
P+12HR 18.6N 111.0E 998HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 19.2N 108.8E 998HPA 15M/S
P+36HR 19.4N 107.2E 995HPA 18M/S
P+48HR 20.1N 105.9E 998HPA 15M/S
P+60HR 20.4N 104.6E 1002HPA 10M/S=

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to high but still no TCFA section

ABPW10 PGTW 111130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/111130Z-120600ZJUN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111121ZJUN2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110820Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED
NEARLY 100NM ARE NOW DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM STILL EXISTS UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20
KTS) OFFSET BY A LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFIES PRIOR
TO MOVING OVER HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL RE-
INTENSIFY WHEN IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER VWS
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.

[Hayabusa]

First run of course it's the HWRF hype...

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN21 PGTW 111200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 113.0E TO 19.3N 107.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110820Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 112.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110820Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED
NEARLY 100NM ARE NOW DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM STILL EXISTS UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20
KTS) OFFSET BY A LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY PRIOR TO
MOVING OVER HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL RE-
INTENSIFY WHEN IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER VWS
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121200Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Gonna name as Koguma soon?

CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.0

[Nancy Smar]

TPPN10 PGTW 120013
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SE OF HAIYAN)
B. 11/2350Z
C. 17.91N
D. 110.49E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS

They say that 92W is located SE of Haiyan lol.

[Nancy Smar]

Now it has been classified as Tropical Depression 05W by JTWC.

05W FIVE 210612 0000 18.2N 110.0E WPAC 25 999

[StormTracker89]

Based on radar and satellite, I'd have put it pretty close to their position, 18.1N 110.0E, still SE of Hainan. Where would you have put it?

TPPN10 PGTW 120013
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SE OF HAIYAN)
B. 11/2350Z
C. 17.91N
D. 110.49E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS

They say that 92W is located SE of Haiyan lol.

[1900hurricane]

Based on radar and satellite, I'd have put it pretty close to their position, 18.1N 110.0E, still SE of Hainan. Where would you have put it?

TPPN10 PGTW 120013
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SE OF HAIYAN)
B. 11/2350Z
C. 17.91N
D. 110.49E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS

They say that 92W is located SE of Haiyan lol.

Looks like a typo. I don't think anyone is debating that it's southeast of the island of Hainan. Southeast of the 2013 Super Typhoon is a bit of a different story.

[StormTracker89]

True. Good catch.

Based on radar and satellite, I'd have put it pretty close to their position, 18.1N 110.0E, still SE of Hainan. Where would you have put it?

TPPN10 PGTW 120013
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (SE OF HAIYAN)
B. 11/2350Z
C. 17.91N
D. 110.49E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS

They say that 92W is located SE of Haiyan lol.

Looks like a typo. I don't think anyone is debating that it's southeast of the island of Hainan. Southeast of the 2013 Super Typhoon is a bit of a different story.

[Nancy Smar]

2021-06-12 06:00 UTC
- nameless -
Position: 19.43N 108.76E
CI: 2.5 | DT: 1.5
MET: 2.5 | PT: 2.5
FT: 2.5

It will be named Koguma very soon.

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1403596699948380162

[Subtrop]

WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 19.4N 108.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 20.6N 105.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140600UTC 21.6N 103.1E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =