Watching Bay of Campeche & SW Gulf Next Week (Is Invest 92L)

[Iceresistance]

I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.

Thank you for the edit. I was without power and internet for 24 hours as a explosión happened at an important substation.

That was not good at all! I may get some action from this, but it's too far out to tell . . .

[ChrisH-UK]

The ECMWF and the GFS are showing strong winds at the 850mb and the 500mb coming in as well the the possible cyclone. With the strong winds coming in over the Caribbean combined with the moisture it is pushing in and with the rotation of the cyclone. Could the spin up the storm even further, not a good setup for the gulf coast.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1403431741763686402

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure is expected to form by early next week over
the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Subsequent slow development is possible as this system drifts
slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

[jasons2k]

It appears chances are increasing for something to form in the western Gulf of Mexico next week. Something we definitely need to watch.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS and CMC

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

[Steve]

It appears chances are increasing for something to form in the western Gulf of Mexico next week. Something we definitely need to watch.

Not the models thread, but as far as this system's possible evolution, I feel like the Canadian was on top of it early. It did back up a day at one point. But when the GFS was spinning up an EPac system or moving vorticity from Caribbean, and while the EC was off and on, CMC had the crossover and/or spin-up over Mexico/Guatemala. We learned last year that the improved CMC was often seeing western-basin systems while EC/GFS were wishy washy when they saw anything at all. This was particularly true in the mid-range of 5-8ish days. I saw Ivanhater* posted the ICON in the evening suites. The ICON was pretty damn good sniffing out systems early too. Unfortunately the Tropical Tidbits feed only gets out to 7.5 days at 00 & 12z, so I don't have access to watch it from an earlier timeframe. But it got to the point where if the ICON and CMC showed a system a week to ten days out, you might want to watch that area. No doubt they would be pretty far down on the bar graphs overall. But they were good in sniffing genesis. Kind of a surprise for me who's been watching models since the MRF/AVN/etc. days of a few decades ago. hahaha

* Hey Ivan. So we always loved Iron. Either me or me and family have been there probably 7 times since it's opened. But one of my kids was in town at the end of May. We got over to Global Grill and Alice's while he was here. Both meals were memorable, and the Global Grill meal might have been overall the best meal I've had in a couple years. I don't so much care about Jackson's or Fish House. But I still want to get to Angelena's, Jaco's, Bonelli's and maybe Union Public House. Anything I need to hit in the 7 weeks before I have to move back to New Orleans, or is that pretty much the go-to list?

[Steve]

MJO will be cool to watch this week too. JMA likes a drop into 2. CFS doesn't really show anything. Others mull it around in 3. Ventrice's site doesn't update like it used to. And that was kind of a go-to. :/

[Steve]

What I'm getting from the 500mb runs a week or so out is that the energy is split. ICON 500mb shows a connection with a trough extending to the Ohio Valley with most of the rainfall out NE of whatever center might form while the center might stay farther back in the Gulf.

Here's 180 hours on the ICON. It almost looks like a La Nina styled trough split with that upper piece peeling back toward to the SW while the tropics send something up. Pretty classic early or later season Gulf activity.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=180

CMC handles it a little differently and just brings the center almost due north toward Vermilion Parish, LA as a midgrade system.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=180

GFS is a little sloppier and slower. Valid 7pm next Saturday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=204

CFS still isn't showing much of an MJO signal and chooses to keep it mostly in the circle for a while. Other than the JMA, most of the other models don't really indicate anything radical. So you have to figure maybe a low-midgrade system hitting TX/LA/MS next weekend or early the following week with a lot of precipitation to the east of wherever the center comes up. Early season mischief.

[Jr0d]

Definitely some convection firing in that area early this morning, however it seems the professional opinion is this will fizzle and won't do much for a few more days. I do expect the NHC to up the odds throughout the day.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%/40%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the Bay of
Campeche and the adjacent land areas. Slow development of this
system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly
and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area
by the middle of next week. Due to the slow motion, regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico. Please consult products from your
local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto

[TallyTracker]

Definitely looking like some tropical slop (aka loosely organized heavy rain) coming to the northern Gulf Coast this week. Need to figure out where I put my umbrella now…lol

[wxman57]

The strong winds aloft (850mb & 500mb) are indicative of the eastern side of a sharp trof over the system (shear). Will likely be a sheared low with most convection right of the center.

[TallyTracker]

The strong winds aloft (850mb & 500mb) are indicative of the eastern side of a sharp trof over the system (shear). Will likely be a sheared low with most convection right of the center.

That’s exactly my thinking as well. I’m planning on a bit of rain from this in Tallahassee even if it ends up centered over Louisiana. Had the same thing happen with Cristobal last year.

[crownweather]

Recon scheduled for Monday.

NOUS42 KNHC 121430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 12 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUNE 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-012

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 19.5N 94.5W FOR 14/1900Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

[AnnularCane]

Recon scheduled for Monday.

NOUS42 KNHC 121430
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 12 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUNE 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-012

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 19.5N 94.5W FOR 14/1900Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

First one for the season?

[Jr0d]

My amateur opinion is the current convection in the BoC will fizzle and the area to watch is the blob that is on the Pacific side of Mexico, south of the BoC. I don't think it is 93E, but that blob that has formed to the east of 93E.

It does appear to be drifting slowly north.

[cajungal]

We are leaving for Orange Beach next Sunday the 20th for vacation. Will this be out here in time? Making me on edge

[psyclone]

Looks like solid rain potential from LA to the FL panhandle as of now. Very consistent with an early season right loaded moisture plume or low end storm.

[Ubuntwo]

My amateur opinion is the current convection in the BoC will fizzle and the area to watch is the blob that is on the Pacific side of Mexico, south of the BoC. I don't think it is 93E, but that blob that has formed to the east of 93E.

It does appear to be drifting slowly north.

That blob to the east of 93E has no vorticity associated with it nor model support, so pretty unlikely to form anything (93E itself could still form). The BoC has plenty of moisture, favorable upper level winds, and lots of convergence. Convection will still cycle diurnally, but the energy is there.

My line of thinking is a short-lived, compact TS in the BoC that makes landfall on the Mexican Gulf Coast. When it lifts north and reforms conditions should not be quite as favorable. Many models depict a subtropicalish structure with highly displaced convection and a broad circulation with multiple vorts. Could be a big rainmaker for the central Gulf coast and Florida.