ATL: CLAUDETTE - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[wxman22]

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles.

[aspen]

92L becomes a moderate TS in the 12z HWRF-P run for 93E, peaking on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

[hurricane2025]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[captainbarbossa19]

Did anyone see that the Euro is wanting to drop about 40 inches of rain in Central Louisiana from this system? That is really bad.

[Kingarabian]

92L becomes a moderate TS in the 12z HWRF-P run for 93E, peaking on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Don't think systems on the HWRF-P are valid other than what the run is designated for. They can be very erroneous.

[Iceresistance]

Did anyone see that the Euro is wanting to drop about 40 inches of rain in Central Louisiana from this system? That is really bad.

I did, can Louisiana get a break from this?

[aspen]

92L becomes a moderate TS in the 12z HWRF-P run for 93E, peaking on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Don't think systems on the HWRF-P are valid other than what the run is designated for. They can be very erroneous.

The 18z HWRF has a similar result: mid 990s, winds around 45-50 kt. In this run so far, 92L has not been pushed on shore as of midday Tuesday and remains over water.

[Kingarabian]

92L becomes a moderate TS in the 12z HWRF-P run for 93E, peaking on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Don't think systems on the HWRF-P are valid other than what the run is designated for. They can be very erroneous.

The 18z HWRF has a similar result: mid 990s, winds around 45-50 kt. In this run so far, 92L has not been pushed on shore as of midday Tuesday and remains over water.

18z HWRF:

[PTrackerLA]

Did anyone see that the Euro is wanting to drop about 40 inches of rain in Central Louisiana from this system? That is really bad.

Yeah 39.8" directly over my house. No thank you.

[aspen]

Don't think systems on the HWRF-P are valid other than what the run is designated for. They can be very erroneous.

The 18z HWRF has a similar result: mid 990s, winds around 45-50 kt. In this run so far, 92L has not been pushed on shore as of midday Tuesday and remains over water.

18z HWRF:
https://i.imgur.com/oCkro8q.png

For this run, 92L actually remains fairly well stacked with a decent moisture pocket. While there is some offset and dry air trying to get in, it’s far better than 03E and not enough to kill it. The system also remains off the coast at least through mid-week, meaning that if it survives the onslaught of shear from the huge ridge, then it could be in a decent spot to recover once shear drops.

But that’s all assuming it even develops close to the time and position this single HWRF run predicts it’ll be. I won’t be surprised if even the next run shows some heavily tilted slop-storm being pushed into Mexico.

[BigB0882]

Did anyone see that the Euro is wanting to drop about 40 inches of rain in Central Louisiana from this system? That is really bad.

Yeah 39.8" directly over my house. No thank you.

What is it showing for BTR? I am hoping it is a sharp gradient. That was enough rain to flood us in 2016 and we nearly had water in the house a few weeks ago with the insane downpours that resulted in a foot of rain in a few hours. Too much PTSD.

And for the record, I hope it is just plain wrong for everyone. No one needs or can handle 40 inches of rain.

[Kingarabian]

The 18z HWRF has a similar result: mid 990s, winds around 45-50 kt. In this run so far, 92L has not been pushed on shore as of midday Tuesday and remains over water.

18z HWRF:
https://i.imgur.com/oCkro8q.png

For this run, 92L actually remains fairly well stacked with a decent moisture pocket. While there is some offset and dry air trying to get in, it’s far better than 03E and not enough to kill it. The system also remains off the coast at least through mid-week, meaning that if it survives the onslaught of shear from the huge ridge, then it could be in a decent spot to recover once shear drops.

But that’s all assuming it even develops close to the time and position this single HWRF run predicts it’ll be. I won’t be surprised if even the next run shows some heavily tilted slop-storm being pushed into Mexico.

18z HMON makes this a hurricane... but in the EPAC lol. The Mexican terrain makes the models do a bunch of weird stuff.
This setup is going to give the HWRF/HMON a big fit.



HMON crosses over 92L into the EPAC and makes it a hurricane in the exact same spot it makes 93E a hurricane. HWRF crosses over 93E to the BOC and makes it a hurricane in the exact same spot it makes 92L a moderate TS.

[captainbarbossa19]

Did anyone see that the Euro is wanting to drop about 40 inches of rain in Central Louisiana from this system? That is really bad.

Yeah 39.8" directly over my house. No thank you.

What is it showing for BTR? I am hoping it is a sharp gradient. That was enough rain to flood us in 2016 and we nearly had water in the house a few weeks ago with the insane downpours that resulted in a foot of rain in a few hours. Too much PTSD.

And for the record, I hope it is just plain wrong for everyone. No one needs or can handle 40 inches of rain.

Euro shows 20+ inches for BTR. GFS has around 1.5 inches. Ummm....that's quite a dispute.

[JW-_-]

https://imgur.com/UFekKat
Is looking possibly an entry-level cane on the 18z.






12Z eps was more to the east with moisture flooding potential.

[jaxfladude]

Great 2021 trying go full 2020....prayers if this verifies.....

[JW-_-]

GFS 00Z














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00Z EC deterministic doesn't do much @ all with this. Its the outliner on the current 00z's global models run.

[JW-_-]

EC 00z deterministic not in agreement with its own ens.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Mostly good model consensus for at least a moderate tropical storm this morning. 00z Euro being the usual outlier with no development.