ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely a solid chance to get Bill out of this. Hopefully impacts will be minimal. Tis the season...

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Surface observations indicate that a broad trough of low pressure has developed in the SW Gulf of Mexico. IR satellite images indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with this broad feature, but lack any sort of sustained organization and at this time there is no defined area of surface low pressure. 92L is interacting with several other features including an areas of disturbed weather over the eastern Pacific Ocean south of Mexico and the larger background circulation of the Central American Gyre (CAG).

The surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is broad and it will take time for surface low pressure to form. Global model guidance suggests that by the middle to end of this week, a more defined surface low pressure center will form out of the broad trough. Little movement of 92L is expected as the system remains in weak steering flow through the next 3-4 days.

The ultimate track of 92L will likely be controlled by a large ridge of high pressure over the SW US and a trough along the US east coast and most importantly where the actual low level center forms. The ridge of high pressure over the SW US will try to impart a track more toward the NW while the trough along the US east coast will try to tug the system toward the NE. A general track toward the north is likely by late in the week or next weekend, but is this a track toward TX or areas further east along the US Gulf coast. Upper level winds are forecasted to be somewhat unfavorable for development of a tropical system over the western Gulf of Mexico with 30-40kts of shear and this could result in a heavily eastern weighted system and the potential for center re-locations toward the east in favor of the deeper convective areas. Models are showing a fairly lopsided and elongated system with more of the weather focused east of any surface center and this is important to keep in mind with looking at any specific model guidance or guidance tracks of the actual surface center.

NHC currently indicates a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days, with much of this potential beyond 48 hours. There is much uncertainty in the ultimate track of 92L without any sort of defined surface center at this time.

Residents along the US Gulf coast from TX to the FL panhandle should monitor the progress of this system over the next week.

[Aric Dunn]

2pm Short term chances are likely to shoot up with the now visible LLC/Vort max swinging east

[xironman]

If that spin doesn't move onshore in the next 24hrs we could get something.

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

LLC is moving a little quicker to the ESE.. Tells me there is almost certainly a more defined/larger Circ somewhere at the edge of the deep convection. the naked one might become to get strung out as the other one deepens and expands.

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche
is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the overall
system has become somewhat better organized since yesterday. Slow
development is possible during the next few days while the system
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could
form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly
northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
next several days. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021061318, , BEST, 0, 205N, 960W, 20, 1010, DB

[tailgater]

It’s looking looking pretty troughy (WNW/ESE) this afternoon and it’ll likely spin up quite a few eddies/weak llc’s before it reaches depression status if ever. A little something watch though

[eastcoastFL]

Nice bit of convection firing off to the East of the circulation

[hipshot]

Nice bit of convection firing off to the East of the circulation

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/CONUS/13/625x375.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/Sandwich/20211642021_GOES16-ABI-gm-Sandwich-1000x1000.jpg

Is there anything going on in that area of convection of the east coast of the Yucatan?

[eastcoastFL]

Nice bit of convection firing off to the East of the circulation

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/CONUS/13/625x375.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/Sandwich/20211642021_GOES16-ABI-gm-Sandwich-1000x1000.jpg

Is there anything going on in that area of convection of the east coast of the Yucatan?

Doesn’t appear to be. There’s another blob of convection the same size over Cuba.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021061400, , BEST, 0, 206N, 964W, 20, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[tailgater]

As of 8:00 am EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...
Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are
associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while
it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression
could form late in the week when the system moves northward into
the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021061412, , BEST, 0, 198N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB

[wxman57]

Future Claudette, not Bill, it seems...

[SoupBone]

Future Claudette, not Bill, it seems...

Are your thoughts still an SWLA or SELA type landfall?

[AnnularCane]

At some point I was going to bring up how the NOLA area got hit with another storm named Bill back in 2003, but that may not be necessary.

[SoupBone]

From most of the runs, it seems like this system would be pulled north, then east with most of the energy displaced to its east. That at least seems like a Louisiana threat for rain, even if it passes near the East Texas border.