ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I am surprised they dont go up to TS Bill with the Microwave and the dvorak at 3.5.

[Aric Dunn]

I am surprised they dont go up to TS Bill with the Microwave and the dvorak at 3.5.

you know the NHC.. they like to follow the process..

[Stormybajan]

These systems really do pop up "Out of nowhere" Aric seems to call these types of system everytime! This reminds me totally of Bertha last year when everyone randomly woke up to a tropical storm! But in anycase im very surprised they didnt just go straight to Bill, I mean it looks atleast 45 mph

[Beef Stew]

Somewhat surprised the NHC didn’t go straight for TS Bill, considering that the bigger question throughout the morning seemed to be the remaining degree of frontal attachment rather than intensity threshold. Regardless, we’ll probably see Bill by 21z.

[Aric Dunn]

Somewhat surprised the NHC didn’t go straight for TS Bill, considering that the bigger question throughout the morning seemed to be the remaining degree of frontal attachment rather than intensity threshold. Regardless, we’ll probably see Bill by 21z.

The NHC really likes to follow the process, especially when there is no threat to land. its forward motion alone gives enough credence to this being Bill right now. They are probably just waiting a few more hours to watch the convection. if by this afternoon convection is holding the upgrade will come at 5.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Somewhat surprised the NHC didn’t go straight for TS Bill, considering that the bigger question throughout the morning seemed to be the remaining degree of frontal attachment rather than intensity threshold. Regardless, we’ll probably see Bill by 21z.

Probably waiting for a microwave pass or even a recon.

[OuterBanker]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located offshore of the coast of North Carolina and moving away from the United States, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

Statement from NHC.

TD 2 now.

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

Low level center exposed.

[wxman57]

Looked more impressive 2-3 hours ago. Maybe it won't make it to "Bill".

[Shell Mound]

Looked more impressive 2-3 hours ago. Maybe it won't make it to "Bill".

It may have briefly attained low-end TS status several hours ago, but perhaps the mid- and low-level centres were insufficiently “stacked” then. Clearly the Gulf Stream (GS) played a pivotal role in fomenting temporal improvement, but upon encountering lower heat content to the north of the GS, spatially and structurally TD Two has since undergone steady degradation. Given increasing VWS, TS status is currently becoming less probable.

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1404464310248566784



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1404474224429895681



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1404480558487392256

[Jr0d]

Well, this came out of nowhere! Reminds me of last year's B storm as well.

The models were hinting at something forming here for days....it just was largely ignored because of 92L down in the Gulf.

That said, it is probably a storm. Hopefully we can get some observations from ships traversing the area so there is no doubt.

I understand the lack of urgency to name this one, it is a minimal storm that will be short lived that poses no threat to land and a minor concern for shipping interests.

After last year, why waste a name on a short lived minimal storm that will not make landfall?

This map was from the June 10th, it definitely was picking up on the development of TD 2.

[MHC Tracking]

In my opinion, this might have briefly been a TS earlier today, but as ASCAT missed, we won't know. Chances are decreasing for Bill later though, at least to me.

[Ubuntwo]

Looked more impressive 2-3 hours ago. Maybe it won't make it to "Bill".

It may have briefly attained low-end TS status several hours ago, but perhaps the mid- and low-level centres were insufficiently “stacked” then. Clearly the Gulf Stream (GS) played a pivotal role in fomenting temporal improvement, but upon encountering lower heat content to the north of the GS, spatially and structurally TD Two has since undergone steady degradation. Given increasing VWS, TS status is currently becoming less probable.

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1404464310248566784
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1404474224429895681
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1404480558487392256

Modeling has peak intensity from 12 - 20 hours from now. Hurricane models are especially enthusiastic with a small area of 50-60kt winds. With that said the next convective upswing should push this over to TS status.

[CyclonicFury]

I think its overall appearance might have peaked but I think increasing forward speed will still get this to TS status.

[Hammy]

Somewhat surprised the NHC didn’t go straight for TS Bill, considering that the bigger question throughout the morning seemed to be the remaining degree of frontal attachment rather than intensity threshold. Regardless, we’ll probably see Bill by 21z.

The NHC really likes to follow the process, especially when there is no threat to land. its forward motion alone gives enough credence to this being Bill right now. They are probably just waiting a few more hours to watch the convection. if by this afternoon convection is holding the upgrade will come at 5.

Radar velocities earlier didn't support tropical storm intensity--the highest I could find was 33kt.

[MHC Tracking]

Radar velocities earlier didn't support tropical storm intensity--the highest I could find was 33kt.

Interesting, so close yet so far from being a TS

[Aric Dunn]

As it moves faster it will begin to strengthen. although it likely is a TS now. radar was looking to far up to get any useful data. should see a burst of convection soon and overnight is when it will be in a better environment .

[cycloneye]

Still a TD.

AL, 02, 2021061418, , BEST, 0, 349N, 731W, 30, 1006, TD

[Sciencerocks]