ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

hi all back other busy season the way it look and i think that 92l will be only rain maker and maybe a td but i see as small shot to be td we will know by friday

[Sciencerocks]

[TampaFl]

Hey Floridasun78, good to see you back for another season. Missed seeing your post towards the end of the hyper active 2020 season. You are right....it sure does look like another very busy 2021 hurricane season!

[eastcoastFL]

[wxman57]

Still looks like a sheared, weak TS at most. Squalls reach SE LA Friday before noon. Center moves ashore between Lake Charles & Vermilion Bay Saturday night. Not much weather associated with the center. All TS wind likely will remain in squalls offshore. Maybe 4-6" rain SE LA Fri/Sat.

[loon]

Still looks like a sheared, weak TS at most. Squalls reach SE LA Friday before noon. Center moves ashore between Lake Charles & Vermilion Bay Saturday night. Not much weather associated with the center. All TS wind likely will remain in squalls offshore. Maybe 4-6" rain SE LA Fri/Sat.

Baby storm to start our year off here in the GOM. Thank you all for your service each and every year. Here is to an exciting (but hopefully safe as possible) season!

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the
next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during
that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move
northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to
impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ronjon]

Still looks like a sheared, weak TS at most. Squalls reach SE LA Friday before noon. Center moves ashore between Lake Charles & Vermilion Bay Saturday night. Not much weather associated with the center. All TS wind likely will remain in squalls offshore. Maybe 4-6" rain SE LA Fri/Sat.

Yes typical sheared poorly organized system early in year. ULL to its west as it approaches the gulf coast will heavily shear it. Wouldn't be surprised if all the heavy weather is displaced well to the east and actual low pressure becomes detached to the west without much rain with it.

[AdamFirst]

wxman with a reasonable deduction based on the current model outputs. I've already been seeing clickbait and hype for this (potential) storm on social media, trying to wishcast it into another hurricane for the gulf coast. It's honestly disgusting. If anything it would be better for Louisiana to miss this storm entirely because of the sheer amount of rain they've had over the past month.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021061512, , BEST, 0, 189N, 951W, 20, 1009, LO

[lrak]

Looks like the mountain range is helping it

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Little change overnight with the elongated trough over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the region, but there remains no defined low level low pressure system.

Global models begin to lift the trough axis northward starting on Thursday and indicate a better chance for a surface low pressure system to form. The general consensus of the global models continues to indicate a track of any low level center toward the north or northeast, but there remains some degree of uncertainty as to where the low level center may form and the eventual final track. Will lean toward the GFS and eastern weighted solutions given the expected shear over the western Gulf of Mexico likely encouraging center relocations closer to the deeper convective plumes on the eastern flank of the circulation. Generally conditions in the western Gulf do not look overly conducive for development and a fairly disorganized system is expected.

Given the expected track of any surface low to the east of SE TX along with most of the impacts to be focused on the eastern side of the system supports minimal impacts over SE TX. Impacts will likely focus around increasing tide levels as higher and longer period swells approach the coast this weekend, but at this time guidance is keeping tides levels below flooding levels however something to watch later this week. Rain chances may increase also if some moisture can wrap around the western side of the circulation, but any heavy rainfall and flooding threat should focus east of our area.

[hurricanehunter69]

Very interesting how this thing will be situated under a ( High Ridge ) right at landfall. Not surprising how some models shoot it all the way to Hurricane...?

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%/80%

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay
of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad
low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during
the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur
during that time period due to its close proximity to land.
However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by
Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in
the week when the low moves across the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America
and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains
could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast
on Friday. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

I would wager we get another Circ develop well to the NE off the N/NW tip of the Yucatan. that portion of the trough is Sharpening quickly and convection is deepening with better Divergence..

the Circ near land looks to be crawling to the coast and will have a hard to lasting without convection..

[wxman57]

Difference between 06z and 12Z GFS is in flow off upper TX coast. 06z had west winds while 12z has south winds. Thus, 12Z GFS taking center farther west. Still a lot of shear impacting the system. Sheared, likely weak TS heading for Cameron. 2020 - part II.

I only hope it's their most memorable storm of 2021.

[wxman57]

I would wager we get another Circ develop well to the NE off the N/NW tip of the Yucatan. that portion of the trough is Sharpening quickly and convection is deepening with better Divergence..

the Circ near land looks to be crawling to the coast and will have a hard to lasting without convection..

Both 00Z Euro and 12z GFS have double low centers in 2-3 days. One up north, one south of 25N. They drop southern center after 72 hrs. SW wind shear will dictate that the northern center is dominant.

[GCANE]

GFS is now forecasting that the LLC will get under the tail end of a UL trof in about 2 days.
Chances looking better for some possible development.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1404859067676315655