ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Good ridge of 5000 CAPE air in the mid GOM extending from the MS Delta going south.

[GCANE]

Picking up a lot of high TPW air from the Yucatan.
Also seems to be an infeed from the EPAC across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec

[SoupBone]

So is this system going to be a surpriser, heading now into Texas as a strengthening storm?

[lrak]

Might need a little more human logic than computer logic with this one.

[aspen]

The visible satellite loop suggests there is some kind of LLC forming just off the coast between the cities of Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos. This feature needs to be watched to see if it moves on shore, or remains over water and continues to tighten up.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021061518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 950W, 20, 1009, LO

[lrak]

my ocular analysis sees a tight spin about 75 miles off the coast

[Aric Dunn]

my ocular analysis sees a tight spin about 75 miles off the coast

I wouldn't focus too much of the circ that is dying and moving inland.. new circ is developing off the NW tip of Yucatan.

[aspen]

my ocular analysis sees a tight spin about 75 miles off the coast

I wouldn't focus too much of the circ that is dying and moving inland.. new circ is developing off the NW tip of Yucatan.

That was the same circulation I noted. Smaller circulations inside a much broader rotating area are annoying to figure out if they’re going to tighten up or eventually dissolve in favor of a new one.

[Aric Dunn]

my ocular analysis sees a tight spin about 75 miles off the coast

I wouldn't focus too much of the circ that is dying and moving inland.. new circ is developing off the NW tip of Yucatan.

That was the same circulation I noted. Smaller circulations inside a much broader rotating area are annoying to figure out if they’re going to tighten up or eventually dissolve in favor of a new one.

When in doubt.. follow the convection

[lrak]

Gatcha, thanks Aric

[Sciencerocks]

Becoming better defined and blowing some convection near the center. The shear is quite strong but it wouldn't surprise me if this is upgraded sooner then later.

[Nimbus]

my ocular analysis sees a tight spin about 75 miles off the coast

I wouldn't focus too much of the circ that is dying and moving inland.. new circ is developing off the NW tip of Yucatan.

Is the shear forecast to let up over that new area of convection?
Broad area of surface low pressure over the BOC but haven't seen anything in the models yet.

[Dean4Storms]

Beginning to get the idea we have a broad gyre type low but a more intense low NE in the deeper convection taking shape, either re-locating or separate swirls. This would give the models a fit in trying to discern a smaller intense low there and it's future track.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a pretty healthy localized mesovort has developed deep in the convection. Expect something within this area to take over.. models will adjust accordingly.

[sphelps8681]

looks like a pretty healthy localized mesovort has developed deep in the convection. Expect something within this area to take over.. models will adjust accordingly.

https://i.ibb.co/vCWB15S/LABELS-19700101-000000-72.gif

https://i.ibb.co/hgrTdWj/Capture.png

How will this change the path?

[boca]

I would think it would be pulled more NE due to the trough over the Florida area and east coast.

[eastcoastFL]

my ocular analysis sees a tight spin about 75 miles off the coast

I wouldn't focus too much of the circ that is dying and moving inland.. new circ is developing off the NW tip of Yucatan.

The GFS has been hinting at that. Basically is ends pulled under that convection around the Yucatán before breaking away and heading north.

[eastcoastFL]

[SoupBone]

I would think it would be pulled more NE due to the trough over the Florida area and east coast.

In my untrained opinion, wouldn't a center that far north and east push the models back over SELA rather than SWLA?