ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

Track would be more SE LA with the reformation of the low, but this would guarantee more of Florida getting some rain from the system.

[eastcoastFL]

Track would be more SE LA with the reformation of the low, but this would guarantee more of Florida getting some rain from the system.

I think we already are

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the
next day or so, and any development should be slow to occur during
that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move
northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to
impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021061600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 948W, 20, 1009, LO

[galaxy401]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the
next day or so, and any development should be slow to occur during
that time period. However, the disturbance should begin to move
northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late in the week when the low moves across the central or
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to
impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The NHC posted incorrect probabilities for the Invest. It's actually 50/80.

Corrected genesis probabilities and category for the Gulf low

[Sciencerocks]

[eastcoastFL]

A whole lot of deep convection over the Yucatán. I think Aric is right and anything that comes out of this will end up coming from the convection further East.

[StPeteMike]

I’m with Aric, the low with work it’s way over to the convection closer to the Yucatán, either to the west of the peninsula or even right over. Still, the rainfall will be displaced to the east, so this will be mainly a SELA, MS, AL, and maybe the whole Gulf Coast of FL…. Hoping for some substantial rain here.

[Steve]

I feel like s2k has had a great handle overall from 10 days out. Devil is in the details as it usually is with weak tropical systems.

Soupbone is right. The pull of the center wouldn’t (couldn’t be) all the way to Florida. Too much High pressure ec. Aric is also mostly right about following the convection. Caveat is that when a center is that close to a curved shoreline, you have different heating processes than out in the open water. His idea should come into play Thursday or Friday if one of the rotating centers to the north or NE of the system could potentially become dominant. I plan to look at the globals at the lower levels as they confine to run. We are now 2-3 days until impacts which should outshine any landfall impacts.

[Jr0d]

It look like today is the day 92L will (finally) start looking like a tropical system.

I think it is more likely the low will close off further east with the rest of the convection but will not change much in the way of the forecast except there being a higher chance of tropical storm winds making it onshore and maybe Key West(me!) seeing some outer bands. It will likely still be dry on the west side but this should give it a better chance to strengthen but still do.notbexpect much. Instead of a 35kt storm we may see a 50kt storm if the center consolidates in a 'sweet spot'.

I feel.like this has been hyped for weeks, so it is nice something is starting to happen. I am a bit relieved some of the doom models(the ones hinting at a possible hurricane) from last week have been invalidated.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1404861253122723841



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1404868581817520128



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1404868584581517315



 https://twitter.com/wxrisksecs1/status/1405041789174702082

[Subtrop]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and
little if any development is expected during that time due
to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should
begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves
across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains should also begin
to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

Still off the NW tip of the Yucatan is the spot. convection took a little longer to return but it is coming back now and should tighten that vort to the north off pretty quick.

[Dean4Storms]

I will not be surprised to see a moderate TS as this approaches the coast. I know guidance yada, yada, yada, but how many times have we seen heavily sheared largely unorganized or broad GOM TC's getting started only to surprise everyone after Recon gets in on one of it's trips to find a period had occurred of quick strengthening under some heavy convection?

Intensity forecasts are usually off and nobody should let their guard down on the wind and seas potential with this especially out east of the center.

[Dean4Storms]

Still off the NW tip of the Yucatan is the spot. convection took a little longer to return but it is coming back now and should tighten that vort to the north off pretty quick.

Do you see the strong circulation just inland on the NW tip of the Yucatan?

[wxman57]

I think I see a center forming near 22.7N/92.3W, just south of that burst of convection. I think this potentially weak TS may move ashore east of Vermilion Bay earlier than Saturday. The center always follows the convection, not the other way around. In strong shear, the center tends to form and/or reform down-shear, where the convection is located.

Possibly in the red circle area:

[Aric Dunn]

Still off the NW tip of the Yucatan is the spot. convection took a little longer to return but it is coming back now and should tighten that vort to the north off pretty quick.

Do you see the strong circulation just inland on the NW tip of the Yucatan?

That is just a left over mid level swirl from the convection last night. may help aid convection offshore as it lifts north though. the center could then get pulled/relocate there as well.

[wxman57]

These type of systems will often have 2-3 vortices rotating around a broad center. The "real" center will form (or move) toward the north side where convection is heaviest.

[DestinHurricane]

I think if center reforms east, we'll see it shift east a good ways. I like a landfall east of New Orleans if that happens. New Orleans to Destin. Regardless if the center doesn't make it that far east, all of the worst weather will. Classic june gulf lopsided system with worst weather displaced 100 mile to the east and nothing on the west side.

[wxman57]

The swirl over the NW Yucatan could rotate NW and become the primary center over the next 12 hours. Could mean a "landfall" east of New Orleans, but nothing near the center. Low-end sheared TS at best with any 35kt winds in squalls offshore well east of the track.