2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS brings the 10/60 into Colima and has another system developing to the south of Mexico.





12z ECMWF less aggressive on both and brings the 10/60 into the Gulf of California.

[Kingarabian]

I think the NHC needs to tag the 10/60 area soon. Lot' of EPS members start development in 72 hours. Hopefully it strengthens enough and then tracks further north, so it reaches SoCal and SW Arizona with a decent amount of moisture and bring those areas some relief.

[Yellow Evan]

Conditions should be decent for two more weeks before a lull in early July.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure. A low-pressure system is expected to
develop along this trough within the next couple of days as a
tropical wave moves westward across the area. Environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development of this
system later this week, and a tropical depression could form by this
weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has the 10/60 system down to 995mb at 78 hours. We should see 94E soon.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS once again favoring Colima landfall for the 10/60.

[Yellow Evan]

Through 258 hours. Given structure, seems convective feedbacky.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/KL51knw.png

Through 258 hours. Given structure, seems convective feedbacky.

Skeptical on intensity but there's EPS support.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/KL51knw.png

Through 258 hours. Given structure, seems convective feedbacky.[/uote]
Skeptical on intensity but theirs EPS support.

I mean I’m fairly confident in 10 days from now they’ll be a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific. I doubt one will form near 90W, however, and I don’t have confidence in being any more specific than that.

[Yellow Evan]

Probably the most active end to a run we've seen this year.

[Kingarabian]

Also noticing a weaker TS in the GOM and a stronger look for the 10/60.

CMC also showing a weak TS in 72 hours. But it has it closer to land.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has the 10/60 beginning to develop in less than 72 hours but keeps it weak (likely too weak):


Also shows a system in 10 days:


Not sure why this isn't tagged yet. EPS has a 99% chance for a TD in 72 hours, and 50% chance for a TS in 96 hours.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure. A low-pressure system is expected to
develop along this trough within the next couple of days as a
tropical wave moves westward across the area. Environmental
conditions should be favorable for gradual development of this
disturbance later this week, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend while the system moves slowly northwestward,
offshore of and parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[JW-_-]

That last EC 12z run probs were high for seeding later in the week.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure. A low-pressure system is expected to
develop along this trough within the next couple of days, and
environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development
of this disturbance later this week. A tropical depression could
form by the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph, offshore of and parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over the
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan during the next
few days, and these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Still waiting on the Euro but the 12z GFS, CMC, and UKMET have development in less than 3 days.

[cycloneye]

A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while moving
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near the coast of southwestern
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro a bit stronger, showing a weak TS before landfall:

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC continues to look alive:

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF now showing landfall and a system at day 10.