How many named storms will form in July?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:08 pm

Making this poll for July that will be open for voting until June 30 at 8:08 PM EDT. There are seven options for the members to vote.

aspen · #2 Postby **aspen** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:39 pm

Going with 3, mainly due to the forecast of a very strong African standing wave for July, raising the possibility of at least something forming from an AEW and an overall active month.

I will say that such a forecast setup isn’t a guarantee for an active July because of typical issues like SAL, as well as the difficult to predict ENSO state. I have a feeling in the back of my mind that my prediction is going to bust.

Stormybajan · #3 Postby **Stormybajan** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:08 pm

I'll go with an active 3 named storms for July, dont see any reason we couldnt squeeze atleast 3 out of July even if they are weak.

eastcoastFL · #4 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 9:36 pm

4 for me.

StPeteMike · #5 Postby **StPeteMike** » Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:52 pm

Think we’ll get 2, but wouldn’t be surprised with 3. We should get our first hurricane from the second storm, likely a fish storm or a Bermuda threat.

Blinhart · #6 Postby **Blinhart** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:11 pm

For some reason I'm going with 4, I really don't know why.

ElectricStorm · #7 Postby **ElectricStorm** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:20 pm

Went with 2 but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we get 3.

CyclonicFury · #8 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:23 pm

I went with two: a Gulf or subtropics storm, and the first MDR storm of the year.

Shell Mound · #9 Postby **Shell Mound** » Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:25 am

Two (both in the subtropics)

#10 Postby **abajan** » Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:58 am

Just one. And it will be Danny.
And Lo, there shall much chatter like "I thought they said it would be an active season!" and "Season Cancel!"

aspen · #11 Postby **aspen** » Sat Jun 19, 2021 7:23 am

abajan wrote:Just one. And it will be Danny.
And Lo, there shall much chatter like "I thought they said it would be an active season!" and "Season Cancel!"

There will be season cancel posts even if we get 3 or more July storms overall. It’ll just take one early July slop storm of non-tropical origin like Edouard ‘20.

St0rmTh0r · #12 Postby **St0rmTh0r** » Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:48 pm

Last year had 5 I'm going go 4 this year but August could be insane!

#13 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:06 pm

I am going with two. One near the beginning of the month and one at the end. July is really difficult to predict so I will not be surprised to be really wrong about this.

#14 Postby **chaser1** » Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:27 am

Two. Got that feeling there'll be one W. Caribbean or GOM during the first few days of the month, and one in the far Eastern MDR in the waning days of July.

aspen · #15 Postby **aspen** » Fri Jun 25, 2021 8:28 am

My vote of 3 is already looking too high, with a suppressive MJO phase likely to be present for the majority of the month. The last third of July into August looks to have a good setup for an MDR storm, but as for the rest of the month, maybe we get something in the subtropics or from a sleeper wave.

I’m thinking the month will remain rather quiet until the end of the suppressive MJO triggers enhanced activity, with rising motion becoming dominant over Africa and sinking motion developing in the EPac. This will leave the MDR generally favorable (and it’ll definitely be warm enough by then), shut down the EPac, and help spike the AEW wave train.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 25, 2021 9:02 am

aspen wrote:My vote of 3 is already looking too high, with a suppressive MJO phase likely to be present for the majority of the month. The last third of July into August looks to have a good setup for an MDR storm, but as for the rest of the month, maybe we get something in the subtropics or from a sleeper wave.

I’m thinking the month will remain rather quiet until the end of the suppressive MJO triggers enhanced activity, with rising motion becoming dominant over Africa and sinking motion developing in the EPac. This will leave the MDR generally favorable (and it’ll definitely be warm enough by then), shut down the EPac, and help spike the AEW wave train.

I made a tool to allow the members to change their votes until Saturday.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:07 am

Those members who have not voted yet still can do so as the poll closes at 8:08 PM EDT.

#18 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:18 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:I am going with two. One near the beginning of the month and one at the end. July is really difficult to predict so I will not be surprised to be really wrong about this.

I think I am going to be off about the first storm by about a day. Of course it would have to form on June 30 and not July 1. Ugh.

galaxy401 · #19 Postby **galaxy401** » Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:54 pm

I don't remember what I voted for but I believe it was 2 or 3. With the way June went, I should have doubled my prediction.

#20 Postby **captainbarbossa19** » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:52 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:I am going with two. One near the beginning of the month and one at the end. July is really difficult to predict so I will not be surprised to be really wrong about this.

I think I am going to be off about the first storm by about a day. Of course it would have to form on June 30 and not July 1. Ugh.

I stand corrected. I am going to be right now because the NHC did not name Elsa today. Wow--I thought for sure I had lost. Now I just have to get one storm at the end of the month.