ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner a while ago:

At 400pm a tropical storm warning has been issued for the US Gulf coast from Intracoastal City, LA to the FL/AL state line.

Both satellite derived wind products and the early afternoon USAF mission confirm that 92L has a broad low pressure center over the south-central Gulf of Mexico with winds generally in the 25 kt range. The current organizational structure is that below what is classifiable as a tropical cyclone, however global models continue to insist that a tropical cyclone will form in the next 12-24 hours and make landfall along the central US Gulf coast. Given the proximity of the system to landfall on the US Gulf coast, the potential tropical cyclone advisories along with tropical storm warnings have been issued with this system. Besides now an official product from the National Hurricane Center, there has been little change to the forecasting thinking today and the good model consensus continues to take the developing tropical system well east of SE TX with most of the weather and impacts focused east of the center toward the central and eastern US Gulf coast.

Any impacts to SE TX are expected to be minimal with some increase in coastal tides (likely below) levels that would cause any significant coastal flooding and an increase in showers near and east of Galveston Bay.

[aspen]

Despite this being a PTC, I’m still very doubtful it becomes a TD, much less a named storm. It’s just too broad with too little time left, and recon is struggling to find a CoC or even TD winds at the surface. That doesn’t diminish the rain impacts from this giant sloppy mess of tropical moisture.

[Nimbus]

NHC must be expecting lower shear later in the forecast.
Lots of flood prone areas along the path so probably a good call.

[CyclonicFury]

Despite this being a PTC, I’m still very doubtful it becomes a TD, much less a named storm. It’s just too broad with too little time left, and recon is struggling to find a CoC or even TD winds at the surface. That doesn’t diminish the rain impacts from this giant sloppy mess of tropical moisture.

Very doubtful seems like a bit of an exaggeration - NHC still gives it a 90% chance within 48 hours. Models still suggest a LLC will likely develop over the northeastern flank of the trough.

[tropicwatch]

So far the NHC appears fairly confident in the current forecast path.

[Steve]

Despite this being a PTC, I’m still very doubtful it becomes a TD, much less a named storm. It’s just too broad with too little time left, and recon is struggling to find a CoC or even TD winds at the surface. That doesn’t diminish the rain impacts from this giant sloppy mess of tropical moisture.

Very doubtful seems like a bit of an exaggeration - NHC still gives it a 90% chance within 48 hours. Models still suggest a LLC will likely develop over the northeastern flank of the trough.

It should. Tomorrow is the day for that I think. What I also think is that it doesn’t have 48 hours left. It should be into southern MS at least by then.

[Steve]

So far the NHC appears fairly confident in the current forecast path.

To me, this was as easy of a call as Cristobal was last year. It was set in stone earlier for sure (like 5+ days) even though lots of people here and east were working that NE’ern Gris Gris.

[cycloneye]

No upgrade to TD.

AL, 03, 2021061800, , BEST, 0, 231N, 922W, 25, 1007, LO

[Sciencerocks]

Looking at this I'd say it won't be one for another 12 hours. Watch the last 12 hours before landfall for its chance!.

[OuterBanker]

Odd, the European has probably of tropical storm at 60% on La coast. It has 80% from the obx to delmarva.

[MarioProtVI]

Looks worse then before. This is honestly shaping up to be the second POTC to have failed developing into a TC if it continues to be poorly defined slop as it is right now. Maybe Claudette in July?

[Craters]

Looks worse then before. This is honestly shaping up to be the second POTC to have failed developing into a TC if it continues to be poorly defined slop as it is right now. Maybe Claudette in July?

Underestimate the power of the Gulf do not, young Paduan...

[Stormybajan]

Looks worse then before. This is honestly shaping up to be the second POTC to have failed developing into a TC if it continues to be poorly defined slop as it is right now. Maybe Claudette in July?

Underestimate the power of the Gulf do not, young Paduan...

Thats true, never bet against the gulf, but just even looking at PTC3 right now, theres only so much the gulf can do to help it in mid June. This is going to be a close finish thats for sure

[tropicwatch]

PTC 3 has seen an expansion in convection the past couple of hours. Will be interesting to see if it holds.

[Frank P]

PTC 3 has seen an expansion in convection the past couple of hours. Will be interesting to see if it holds.

Expansion continues an hour later.. making a run at TD/TS?

[Dean4Storms]

NHC came eastward with the TS Warnings to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, basically to Destin. That makes sense as the 00z ECM continues to depict wind gusts to 50 mph for much of the Western Panhandle coast. Some tourists are gonna have fun trying to pack the car tomorrow morning and then sitting in traffic on mid-bay bridge. I think winds at 45mph they shut the bridges down around here. Talk about some traffic snarls?

[DestinHurricane]

NHC came eastward with the TS Warnings to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, basically to Destin. That makes sense as the 00z ECM continues to depict wind gusts to 50 mph for much of the Western Panhandle coast. Some tourists are gonna have fun trying to pack the car tomorrow morning and then sitting in traffic on mid-bay bridge. I think winds at 45mph they shut the bridges down around here. Talk about some traffic snarls?

They close them at 40mph, but I doubt that will actually be recorded sustained at the mid bay bridge or 331. If it is, it won't be for very long.

[Chemmers]

looks like the overshooting top are trying to wrap round the LLC?

[wxman57]

Weak LLC is west of the convection. Will likely have some TS winds in squalls 70-80 miles east of the center today. Center will be ashore by midnight south of Houma. Any TS winds will remain offshore in squalls.

[JW-_-]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... 1&storm=03

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Friday, Jun. 18, 2021 6:00 Z

Wind (1 min. avg.):

30 knots (35 mph | 15 m/s | 56 km/h)

Gusts:

40 knots (46 mph | 21 m/s | 74 km/h)

Pressure:

1007 mb (29.74 inHg | 1007 hPa)

Location at the time:

387 statute miles (623 km) to the ESE (105°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

Coordinates:

24.5N 91.5W How far away is this from me?

Source:

National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data

03L THREE 210618 0600 24.5N 91.5W ATL 30 1007