The focus shifts to the caribbean

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Well after some hype for that low pressure in the past days now the attention will go to the caribbean.Will something develop from that area now in the westcentral caribbean? Well it looks somewhat interesting with convection south of Jamaica but let's see what happens in the comming days and if there will be global model support for something to develop there and let's see if the 2003 season is over or there is one more system developing.

[Stormcenter]

After the next front (this weekend) makes it down into the GOM the waters will be so cool that anything developing in the Carribean won't amount to much IF it made into the GOM and wouldn't be of any concern for anyone including Florida accept for maybe some rain. So it may be something to watch and post about but I don't think it will be of any major threat to the U.S. coastline. IMO

[Rainband]

More of a threat than the low there right now

[Stormcenter]

Well not really in either case. The low in the GOM is a low at least even though it's a very weak one. The Carribean thing is nothing at the moment except some storms and probably won't bother anyone (in the U.S.) if it did amount to anything. Either way each thing is not much at all. I think I hear the Fat Lady singing which means the 2003 Hurricane season is coming to an end.

[cycloneye]

Still may be something left for this season to then the fat lady sing.Especially as the ridge builds in the atlantic as expected favoring a more favorable enviroment with less shear but time will tell what the final days of the season may bring.

[stormchazer]

After the next front (this weekend) makes it down into the GOM the waters will be so cool that anything developing in the Carribean won't amount to much IF it made into the GOM and wouldn't be of any concern for anyone including Florida accept for maybe some rain. So it may be something to watch and post about but I don't think it will be of any major threat to the U.S. coastline. IMO

The TWD this morning seem the front would not deepen very far south as I read it. It went on to state that the jet was forced north by the strong High Dominating the W. Atl.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GLFMEX LIES UNDER THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN
ATLC BUT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS BEING HIGHLY DICTATED BY
A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE A TWIN CYCLONIC
STRUCTURE...EACH FEATURE CENTERED NEAR 26N86W AND 23N86W. VERY
LITTLE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXCEPT
FOR A NARROW LINE OF STORMS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THE AIR MASS WEST OF THE LOW IS EXTREMELY
DRY AND IS BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION...MAKING THE
PROSPECT OF RAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS RATHER LOW. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE ERN GULF AS IT WANDERS WITHIN THE
WEAK FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CNTRL UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE GULF DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if the caribbean area has a last chance to develop something in comming days or we can close the books on the 2003 season.

[wxman57]

After the next front (this weekend) makes it down into the GOM the waters will be so cool that anything developing in the Carribean won't amount to much IF it made into the GOM and wouldn't be of any concern for anyone including Florida accept for maybe some rain. So it may be something to watch and post about but I don't think it will be of any major threat to the U.S. coastline. IMO

One weak front moving across the Gulf won't decrease the SSTs much in the deepwater areas, just a degree or two near the beaches. It takes quite a while for the Gulf to cool significantly in the winter. Water temperatures should stay 80F or higher in the central Gulf for at least another month. That's plenty favorable for development if other conditions are favorable. But generally, wind shear increases to unacceptable levels by this time of year. That's the limiting factor, not water temperatures.

https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cen/local/gulf/gulf02.gif

[Josephine96]

I'd like to see 1 more system as the season closes..

[PTrackerLA]

I still think we'll see a November storm, just waiting for it to form...(wow that rhymes )

[Rainband]

I still think we'll see a November storm, just waiting for it to form...(wow that rhymes )

[ColdFront77]

One weak front moving across the Gulf won't decrease the SSTs much in the deepwater areas, just a degree or two near the beaches. It takes quite a while for the Gulf to cool significantly in the winter. Water temperatures should stay 80F or higher in the central Gulf for at least another month. That's plenty favorable for development if other conditions are favorable. But generally, wind shear increases to unacceptable levels by this time of year. That's the limiting factor, not water temperatures.

It makes sense to me. In fact I was actually going to respond to this thread yesterday.

I don't see and never have heard water temperatures cooling (in the Gulf of Mexico) because of a cold front or two.

I still think we'll see a November storm, just waiting for it to form...(wow that rhymes )

(Johnathan), PTrackerLA is a poet and he didn't know it.

[Dave C]

Remember Kate in 85?. With little cooling in the Gulf due to lack of cool air pushes, Kate intensified until it reached about 27 deg. latitude in late Dec.

[Anonymous]

Do you mean late November?