ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Per recon this is technically closed, so with that and the slow improvement in organization, I think this barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone.

I don't think that a west wind of a few mph within a broad area of light winds over 100 miles across really qualifies as a "well-defined" low-level center. I would call it a disturbance until it has a tight center. Doesn't matter as far as impacts. The squalls could produce some straight-line winds to 40 mph, and they'll produce 6-8 inches of rain regardless of how this system is classified. We'll know in a few minutes if the NHC has seen enough to call it a depression. Certainly, no evidence of TS winds from recon. I'm seeing a couple 25-30 kt winds in the squalls well NE of the weak swirls.

The NHC tends to be more lenient with a storm so close to land. Sloppy and ugly system, but my guess is the NHC will upgrade it at 11am based on the loosely closed LLC. Reminds me of TS Colin in 2016.

[Pearl River]

I had a good rain shower come thru about 20 minutes ago. It lasted a couple of minutes and dropped .17" here at the house.

[wxman57]

Still PTC Three

[lrak]

What is going to happen to the leftover spin in the BOC? Is it too weak to survive?

[Sciencerocks]

[JW-_-]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 15:34Z
Date: June 18, 2021
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Tropical Depression: Three (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2

Little confusing why the mission heading is labeled as TD, but the current classification is PTC. Maybe one of you guys knows.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at visible satellite I have to question the NNE
movement. You can clearly see the center. It looks more
due north. IMO

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like reformation is occurring south of the Mouth of the Mississippi river..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seems like recon isn't looking at the area to the north where the center is forming...and they are off by a lot.

[tailgater]

I Sure wish they would fly up there by 28N 91W. This eddy actually has a bit of convection near it’s center. Maybe they are enjoying the sunshine.

[Stormcenter]

Based on radar out of N.O., the center is SSW of N.O.
You can clearly see the banding feeding into the center
of circulation.

[Ubuntwo]

Several elevated TS-force obs coming in now. Up to 31kt at 10m. Probably confined to squalls but soon enough there should be enough for a bump to 35kt.

[cheezyWXguy]

Based on radar out of N.O., the center is SSW of N.O.
You can clearly see the banding feeding into the center
of circulation.

True it’s pretty apparent there’s at least a mid level circulation. However at that distance it doesn’t say much about the surface. Will definitely need recon to verify.

[Aric Dunn]

Based on radar out of N.O., the center is SSW of N.O.
You can clearly see the banding feeding into the center
of circulation.

It has nearly fully reformed.. a bouy circled in yellow has just switched to SSW winds. very likely a expanding LLC in there.

[USTropics]

850mb (low-level) vorticity has continued to become better defined throughout the past 12 hours:


Decent support now at the mid-upper levels as well:

[Nimbus]

Several elevated TS-force obs coming in now. Up to 31kt at 10m. Probably confined to squalls but soon enough there should be enough for a bump to 35kt.

So maybe they wanted to wait and declare a named storm to get the publics attention for the flooding alerts? Pretty serious rain banding for the usual low lying flood prone areas.

[Yellow Evan]

This is a tropical cyclone. A sloppy one at that but a tropical cyclone.

[Stormcenter]

Time to call this a TD or TS. IMO

[tropicwatch]

Saying winds of 45mph but no upgrade.

[MarioProtVI]

Recon seems to have found where the center reformed…albeit a bit too late since intermediate is already out. Maybe an update/amendment if they determine it’s enough?