ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#301 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:01 pm

Looks like this might be a TS now. Should see Claudette by the next advisory I would think.
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#302 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:02 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#303 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:07 pm

How does the duck thing go….if it looks like
duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then
it must be a…..SMH
3 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#304 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:15 pm

This storm is looking very similar to 2009's Claudette. Lopsided convection in the Gulf of Mexico.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

FixySLN
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 136
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:22 pm
Location: Ocean Springs, MS

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#305 Postby FixySLN » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:15 pm

Well, hello Claudette.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#306 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:16 pm

oh boy we got a spinner.. meso vort developing and starting to drag convection with it as it is rotating around the broad area
that thing will gain a lot of angular momentum on its trip around the broad circ.. when it bottoms out to the south it will take off.

Image
Image
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#307 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:19 pm

Recon finally found what appears to be the center. It recorded a pressure drop and wind increase as well. Winds could be higher within the convection.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1406
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#308 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:21 pm

aspen wrote:Recon finally found what appears to be the center. It recorded a pressure drop and wind increase as well. Winds could be higher within the convection.

Surface observations and an ASCAT pass have confirmed 35-40kt winds.
1 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9620
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#309 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:oh boy we got a spinner.. meso vort developing and starting to drag convection with it as it is rotating around the broad area
that thing will gain a lot of angular momentum on its trip around the broad circ.. when it bottoms out to the south it will take off.


That was depicted by a couple of the meso-models with almost a kind of stall or pull west before coming in. Might not be the last one either. But definite structural improvement today as it's coming north.
3 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#310 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:26 pm

Steve wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:oh boy we got a spinner.. meso vort developing and starting to drag convection with it as it is rotating around the broad area
that thing will gain a lot of angular momentum on its trip around the broad circ.. when it bottoms out to the south it will take off.


That was depicted by a couple of the meso-models with almost a kind of stall or pull west before coming in. Might not be the last one either. But definite structural improvement today as it's coming north.


Yeah as it rotates around and the pressure drops. it will eventually take over.. the system as a whole will likely do a pretty decent cyclonic loop to the wsw then South then begin moving NNE..

should be an interesting thing to watch.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9620
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#311 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:30 pm

I have literally zero plans this afternoon and evening except drinking. We got that first little band before lunch and it recently rained again. That's probably 0.2" so far in Pensacola. I'm hoping that the next flare up will get us under some of the training. I don't live in an area with flooding or street flooding, so it would be cool to just be able to stare at the rain all evening and night.
7 likes   

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1409
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#312 Postby Jr0d » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:34 pm

I think they will upgrade before 5pm.

Wednesday we had a heavy squall come through Key West that was loosely associated with this system, a 60mph gust was recorded offshore, and a 56mph gust was recorded on land. The outer bands of (soon to be)Claudette may catch some off guard if they are anything like what we had the other day.

The storm warnings being extended into to Florida are certainly necessary.
2 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9620
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#313 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:37 pm

Jr0d wrote:I think they will upgrade before 5pm.

Wednesday we had a heavy squall come through Key West that was loosely associated with this system, a 60mph gust was recorded offshore, and a 56mph gust was recorded on land. The outer bands of (soon to be)Claudette may catch some off guard if they are anything like what we had the other day.

The storm warnings being extended into to Florida are certainly necessary.


Yeah. I agreed with Destin and Dean that they probably could have started out with the TS Warnings. It didn't look like the center could get that far - by at least 150 miles. But we knew that the weather was all going to be on that side. They probably should have flood watches up all the way to Bay Co. if they don't already. Also I'm wondering based on what Aric is saying if maybe the system doesn't look its best from landfall until about 12-16 hours after landfall. 30N could be the magic latitude for this system.

Edit to say the flood watch actually extends a bit past Bay County through Gulf/Calhoun Counties into Franklin/Liberty Counties.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#314 Postby Frank P » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:38 pm

Steve wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:oh boy we got a spinner.. meso vort developing and starting to drag convection with it as it is rotating around the broad area
that thing will gain a lot of angular momentum on its trip around the broad circ.. when it bottoms out to the south it will take off.


That was depicted by a couple of the meso-models with almost a kind of stall or pull west before coming in. Might not be the last one either. But definite structural improvement today as it's coming north.

That’s my plan too Steve… been an frustrating and ugly storm to track but I expect based on RECON an upgrade to TS.. nothing much happening over here on the beach in Biloxi, a few gusts to 35 mph were noted earlier today.. stiff wind out of the SE…
Side note: next big storm in Biloxi come stay at the house for a great thrill, open invite…
4 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9154
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#315 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:39 pm

Based on the data I believe that it will be upgraded to Claudette soon!

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9620
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#316 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:42 pm

Frank P wrote:
Steve wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:oh boy we got a spinner.. meso vort developing and starting to drag convection with it as it is rotating around the broad area
that thing will gain a lot of angular momentum on its trip around the broad circ.. when it bottoms out to the south it will take off.


That was depicted by a couple of the meso-models with almost a kind of stall or pull west before coming in. Might not be the last one either. But definite structural improvement today as it's coming north.

That’s my plan too Steve… been an frustrating and ugly storm to track but I expect based on RECON an upgrade to TS.. nothing much happening over here on the beach in Biloxi, a few gusts to 35 mph were noted earlier today.. stiff wind out of the SE…
Side note: next big storm in Biloxi come stay at the house for a great thrill, open invite…


Thanks man. I was thinking about you driving on Beach Blvd a couple weekends ago. I-10 was a disaster so I said screw it, I'll just go down to the coast and gamble for an hour or two. I ended up winning $60 at the Golden Nugget. Unfortunately traffic only got worse, so it ended up being about 5 hours from Metairie to Pensacola which should have taken 2:50.
1 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#317 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Steve wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:oh boy we got a spinner.. meso vort developing and starting to drag convection with it as it is rotating around the broad area
that thing will gain a lot of angular momentum on its trip around the broad circ.. when it bottoms out to the south it will take off.


That was depicted by a couple of the meso-models with almost a kind of stall or pull west before coming in. Might not be the last one either. But definite structural improvement today as it's coming north.


Yeah as it rotates around and the pressure drops. it will eventually take over.. the system as a whole will likely do a pretty decent cyclonic loop to the wsw then South then begin moving NNE..

should be an interesting thing to watch.


I’m with you on this. Looks like a stronger mesovort is racing across the northern side of the larger circulation, pulling convection up-shear. This can often lead to strengthening/consolidation. A zoomed in visible loop on this area shows that it appears to be taking over.
1 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22977
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#318 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:43 pm

There is a platform south of the mouth of the Mississippi that reported a 40kt wind well above 10m. I don't see any well-defined center. I see a couple of eddies, one of which is very near the coast now. It's moving to the west.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145277
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#319 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:47 pm

Still no TS designation.

AL, 03, 2021061818, , BEST, 0, 274N, 912W, 40, 1006, LO
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

BiloxiBeachGuy
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:38 am

Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Three - Discussion

#320 Postby BiloxiBeachGuy » Fri Jun 18, 2021 1:48 pm

Still quiet here in Biloxi. I'm at work right now and imagine it will be a challenge for our buses tomorrow should their be any flooding.
0 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest