2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cpv17]

If that were to happen in late June/early July, we’d be in serious trouble come A-O.

[Stormybajan]

Best be watching this wave in the central Atlantic closely for that convection to persist.... looks to already have solid ( but small) 850 mb circ.

These small systems very often slip under the radar of all the models.

https://i.ibb.co/Tm9fDd6/LABELS-19700101-000000-74.gif

I've also been watching this wave closely, dont think it has the right environment (SAL) to develop east of the islands but per gfs (cat 4 945 monster) I am guessing it will have a better chance of doing in the gulf

[toad strangler]

946 mbar at its peak when it hits Texas.

Lmao Cat 4 Hurricane Elsa in early July…like that’s ever gonna happen. If it does, I will eat my hat.

If that happens I will fly from Phoenix to Houston, stand outside on the sidewalk as the storm arrives, and get out a wicked electric guitar and sing a very evil version of "Let It Go" at the top of my lungs

I think almost everybody here knows that intensity is a huge wildcard even less than 24 hours out let alone post 240 hours. What isn't a joke is that a track like that would fit inside July general climo. For now, it's a GFS fantasy spin up, BUT the seeming spark to this is already on the map as Aric Dunn mentioned previously.. Keep watching!

[aspen]

If that were to happen in late June/early July, we’d be in serious trouble come A-O.

Any significant AEW-based hurricane this early would be a very concerning sign for ASO. However, odds are Danny or Elsa (depending on whether or not the wave that’ll emerge next week develops) will be a lot less organized than this run. The previous run had a sloppy, very loosely organized TC, and I remember early runs for what would become Claudette a week or more out had a well-organized Cat 1. At this point, all we need to look out for is consistency, other models jumping on board, and the status of a potential precursor disturbance. Intensity from run to run can be interesting, but it’s not very useful at this stage if it constantly swings from a TD to a Cat 4 landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

If that were to happen in late June/early July, we’d be in serious trouble come A-O.

Any significant AEW-based hurricane this early would be a very concerning sign for ASO. However, odds are Danny or Elsa (depending on whether or not the wave that’ll emerge next week develops) will be a lot less organized than this run. The previous run had a sloppy, very loosely organized TC, and I remember early runs for what would become Claudette a week or more out had a well-organized Cat 1. At this point, all we need to look out for is consistency, other models jumping on board, and the status of a potential precursor disturbance. Intensity from run to run can be interesting, but it’s not very useful at this stage if it constantly swings from a TD to a Cat 4 landfall.

Just in a general sense. when the GFS shows something at all for several runs ( even if it disappears) the chances of at least an invest are pretty likely. Gfs does very well sniffing out the right conditions in the medium and long range. So never look at the GFS for track or intensity. just that development is quite likely in some form..

[Shell Mound]

If that were to happen in late June/early July, we’d be in serious trouble come A-O.

Any significant AEW-based hurricane this early would be a very concerning sign for ASO. However, odds are Danny or Elsa (depending on whether or not the wave that’ll emerge next week develops) will be a lot less organized than this run. The previous run had a sloppy, very loosely organized TC, and I remember early runs for what would become Claudette a week or more out had a well-organized Cat 1. At this point, all we need to look out for is consistency, other models jumping on board, and the status of a potential precursor disturbance. Intensity from run to run can be interesting, but it’s not very useful at this stage if it constantly swings from a TD to a Cat 4 landfall.

Just in a general sense. when the GFS shows something at all for several runs ( even if it disappears) the chances of at least an invest are pretty likely. Gfs does very well sniffing out the right conditions in the medium and long range. So never look at the GFS for track or intensity. just that development is quite likely in some form..

The EPS has actually been performing better than the GEFS thus far in 2021. The 00Z EPS is far less bullish in regard to the upcoming AEW than yesterday’s 12Z.

[Aric Dunn]

Any significant AEW-based hurricane this early would be a very concerning sign for ASO. However, odds are Danny or Elsa (depending on whether or not the wave that’ll emerge next week develops) will be a lot less organized than this run. The previous run had a sloppy, very loosely organized TC, and I remember early runs for what would become Claudette a week or more out had a well-organized Cat 1. At this point, all we need to look out for is consistency, other models jumping on board, and the status of a potential precursor disturbance. Intensity from run to run can be interesting, but it’s not very useful at this stage if it constantly swings from a TD to a Cat 4 landfall.

Just in a general sense. when the GFS shows something at all for several runs ( even if it disappears) the chances of at least an invest are pretty likely. Gfs does very well sniffing out the right conditions in the medium and long range. So never look at the GFS for track or intensity. just that development is quite likely in some form..

The EPS has actually been performing better than the GEFS thus far in 2021. The 00Z EPS is far less bullish in regard to the upcoming AEW than yesterday’s 12Z.

Unfortunately, that is not the case. The Euro/EPS has been doing very poorly on development.. sure once something has developed the Euro and EPS are better at track and intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

Best be watching this wave in the central Atlantic closely for that convection to persist.... looks to already have solid ( but small) 850 mb circ.

These small systems very often slip under the radar of all the models.

https://i.ibb.co/Tm9fDd6/LABELS-19700101-000000-74.gif

I've also been watching this wave closely, dont think it has the right environment (SAL) to develop east of the islands but per gfs (cat 4 945 monster) I am guessing it will have a better chance of doing in the gulf

12z seems to like our little friend for the next couple days.. its in a nice little pocket of moisture not moving terribly fast.. has a decent shot of a quick life.

[Aric Dunn]

look out for some pulses of deep convection... could be enough to spin this up before the islands and the shear.

[Aric Dunn]

12z EPS

might get a lemon at 8pm

[jconsor]

Agreed that small systems often are missed by global models.

This is especially so in the area where this wave is heading. The central Atlantic east of the Leeward/Windward Islands (from about 40 to 60W) is notorious for being a very challenging area for models to forecast TC genesis. Given the system's recent trend toward increased convection and that a Kelvin wave is passing through the eastern Atlantic today and tomorrow, which will likely give the system an additional convective boost, I would give it a slight chance of TC genesis. Definitely worth watching carefully.

Gonzalo in 2020, Dorian in 2019 and Don in 2017 formed in that area. Nearly all the models missed their genesis until about a day in advance, if I recall correctly.
Gonzalo in 2014 also formed just east of the Leewards, while models didn't generally have it forming until it was further north in the subtropics.
Beryl in 2018 developed farther east, but its main intensification (which was vastly underestimated by most models) was in the same area of the central Atlantic.

Best be watching this wave in the central Atlantic closely for that convection to persist.... looks to already have solid ( but small) 850 mb circ.

These small systems very often slip under the radar of all the models.

https://i.ibb.co/Tm9fDd6/LABELS-19700101-000000-74.gif

[Kingarabian]

Climo favors the seeds of that GOM hurricane the 12z GFS is showing, will probably end up getting strung over CA or end up in the EPAC. GFS at this time of the year can show GOM systems only for it eventually adjust and show it in the EPAC or no development at all.

[Nuno]

:double:
https://i.imgur.com/TnIDWfH.png

I had to do a double take when I saw 973 mb over Martinque, like what. GFS Fantasy land in full swing, however what this tells me is to look for development in the MDR around that timeframe, have to just ignore the intensity for now cause...

The GFS is showing fantasies as is usual. It also showed 94L developing, only to fail miserably. I doubt that we’ll see anything in the MDR before August.

Would your forecast change if the MDR did ramp up before August? I recall you looking to see how MDR activity would take shape in the early months as a long term indicator.

[Aric Dunn]

I suppose with convection building now. we should start a thread. as this wave looks to be around awhile with potential if it develops east of the islands or later in carrib

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS has this as a weak hurricane landfalling along the west coast of Florida.
Elsa was the Disney character in "frozen" not Else William Faulkners hot concort?

[aspen]

18z GFS: the CAG system is further north and gets pulled up into mid Florida, crossing over the Peninsula and becoming an East Coast Sweeper system that peaks as a mid-970s system off of the New England coast. Quite a massive track difference from the 12z run, one of the biggest I can recall.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS: the CAG system is further north and gets pulled up into mid Florida, crossing over the Peninsula and becoming an East Coast Sweeper system that peaks as a mid-970s system off of the New England coast. Quite a massive track difference from the 12z run, one of the biggest I can recall.

It's usually not a CAG if the area develops and establishes itself before interacting and lingering over CA. Looks too be associated with a TW currently near 40W-45W.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS: the CAG system is further north and gets pulled up into mid Florida, crossing over the Peninsula and becoming an East Coast Sweeper system that peaks as a mid-970s system off of the New England coast. Quite a massive track difference from the 12z run, one of the biggest I can recall.

It's usually not a CAG if the area develops and establishes itself before interacting and lingering over CA. Looks too be associated with a TW currently near 40W-45W.

There it is.

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS: the CAG system is further north and gets pulled up into mid Florida, crossing over the Peninsula and becoming an East Coast Sweeper system that peaks as a mid-970s system off of the New England coast. Quite a massive track difference from the 12z run, one of the biggest I can recall.

It's usually not a CAG if the area develops and establishes itself before interacting and lingering over CA. Looks too be associated with a TW currently near 40W-45W.

There it is.

https://i.imgur.com/Kon9u75.png

I just started a thread for it...

[toad strangler]

It's usually not a CAG if the area develops and establishes itself before interacting and lingering over CA. Looks too be associated with a TW currently near 40W-45W.

There it is.

https://i.imgur.com/Kon9u75.png

I just started a thread for it...

Add Lesser before Antilles