2021 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Maybe the first hurricane with this one?

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Guatemala and
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wednesday or Thursday. Some
development will be possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore the southern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has a potent hurricane into Oaxaca.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Guatemala and
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wednesday or Thursday. Some
development will be possible thereafter while the system moves
west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore the southern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Strongest run yet by ECMWF with a hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

Strongest run yet by ECMWF with a hurricane.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/hjZIbZP.jpg[url]

If it stays off the Mexican coast it should end up as a hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has been hinting at a quick strike TC off the Mexican coast in the 8 day range, sorta similar to Dolores but could easily end up as 93E.


Some support from the CMC:

[aspen]

GFS has been hinting at a quick strike TC off the Mexican coast in the 8 day range, sorta similar to Dolores but could easily end up as 93E.
https://i.imgur.com/BLu32Vb.gif

Some support from the CMC:
https://i.imgur.com/0Nv6RvF.png

It’s also consistent with a developed or developing TC between Belize and Cuba, with the time frame gradually getting closer. That’s the CAG system I’ve been mentioning, and as you’ve pointed out in the models thread, it’s possible this ends up as an EPac disturbance or never develops at all.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS now has two systems S/SW of Mexico in 5 days:

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS bringing the second system near Michoacán which seems phantom to me given how randomly it forms while being so close to another. It's a common problem with the GFS frankly.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/pH3o9N6.png

18z GFS bringing the second system near Jalisco which seems phantom to me given how randomly it forms while being so close to another. It's a common problem with the GFS frankly.

Yeah it is the happy hour GFS after all. Recall it showing something similar a few days ago. It's now attempting to develop a TW near 93W.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Guatemala and
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late this week. Some development is
possible thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward
parallel to and just offshore the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

-CCKW's have been a theme so far. Despite the inactive MJO, TC continues to be favored over the WHEM. One more -CCKW on the way, really building around 160E and is currently in the CPAC (enhanced convection). Will be over the EPAC in less than a week and then eventually in the Atlantic. Could see multiple TC's from the EPAC to the Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS continues with the two AOI's:



00z GFS 0/30:

[Kingarabian]

Look at how well defined and strong those lower level westerlies are in association with the modeled twin systems:


Really show the potential for enhanced convergence in this time period.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS, much like 18z, having a normal one by showing a second disturbance developing to its left once the 0/30 moves inland. I'll pay serious attention when other models do the same.

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 20 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Guatemala and
the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form by late week while the system moves west-
northwestward parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

No support from the other globals in regards to another system. Strong support for the 0/40.

[JW-_-]

Early days atm. Bom is seeing a possible future worthwhile system to track, without controversy.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of Guatemala and
the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or this weekend while the
system moves west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore of
the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC now developing two areas, similar to the GFS.
12z Euro continues with developing only the 0/50 system, showing it obsorbing the other area the GFS and CMC are trying to develop.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC now developing two areas, similar to the GFS.
12z Euro continues with developing only the 0/50 system, showing it obsorbing the other area the GFS and CMC are trying to develop.

From the 12z suite, it looks like both areas have a good chance at development. 12z UKMET is predominately developing the 95W area compared to the other models.