2021 EPAC Season

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Kingarabian
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#401 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 21, 2021 6:10 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of southeastern
Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto


I think eventually they'll add another circle.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#402 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 21, 2021 6:26 pm

Code Red=70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of southeastern
Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward parallel to and just offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#403 Postby JW-_- » Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:33 pm

Boms thinking next run was @ 12 UTC run Eastern standard time
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#404 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:18 am

00z GFS and 00z CMC continue to show two potential systems.

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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#405 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:06 am

06z GFS has twin TC's in 72 hours:
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#406 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:28 am

So far the quality in the first 5 named systems have been severely lacking. But if we get Enrique and Felicia before June 30th, 2021 will be the fastest to the F named storm in the past 30 years. Haven't checked years prior to 1990. But it would be quicker than 1990 and 2018.

In the past 7 days, NOAA has analyzed the EPAC SST anomalies to have cooled quite significantly. I'm not sure how this happened but they say it did. So if this cooling trend continues, I'm not sure we can continue this pace despite the favorable upward motion from -CCKW's coming in repeatedly.
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Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#407 Postby JW-_- » Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:34 am

Image
https://postimg.cc/ppWwjb53

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https://postimg.cc/mzFb0xym


Image
https://postimg.cc/PvPF6hbq



Image


Image
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#408 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 22, 2021 7:05 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located over Central America and the far eastern
portion of the eastern Pacific is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week or this
weekend. This disturbance is expected to move generally
west-northwestward, and could be near the coast of southern Mexico
by the weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#409 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 22, 2021 7:33 am

This might have some huge potential. Models currently keep the system further away from the coast for longer than Dolores, SSTs are as high as 30C, and all models are significantly more aggressive with this than any other EPac system so far this season. It’s saying something when the Euro finally shows a hurricane.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#410 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:38 am

aspen wrote:This might have some huge potential. Models currently keep the system further away from the coast for longer than Dolores, SSTs are as high as 30C, and all models are significantly more aggressive with this than any other EPac system so far this season. It’s saying something when the Euro finally shows a hurricane.


If this actually had a particularly strong case of becoming strong, the ECMWF would be showing far more than a marginal hurricane like it often did from 2014-18. Keep an eye on it but I'm not sold on a full blown major hurricane or for that matter two systems yet.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#411 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:46 am

Image

6z GFS makes this a landfalling major hurricane near Oaxaca/Guerrero.

Image

Also has the second system passing west of Jalisco in 9-10 days.

Image

0z ECMWF brings the 10/80 into Jalisco as a minimal hurricane.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#412 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:49 am

Looking at the EPS ensembles, no more than a couple show more than the 10/80.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#413 Postby Astromanía » Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:41 am

Those scenarios are not good :eek:
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#414 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:03 pm

Image

12z GFS has a potent hurricane into Guerrero. Likely shifted west because there's less of an interaction with the system to its west.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#415 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:41 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south
of Central America is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week
or this weekend. This disturbance is expected to move slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, and could be near the coast of
southern Mexico by the weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#416 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:26 pm

Should be an invest soon
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#417 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:46 pm

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12z ECMWF further west, weaker, and now has this taking a southwestward dive by day 6.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#418 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:51 pm

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12z CMC has a Guerrero hurricane landfall.
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#419 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:09 pm

12z UKMET pretty bullish:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.2N 105.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.06.2021 84 13.9N 105.3W 1003 27
1200UTC 26.06.2021 96 14.7N 105.9W 999 35
0000UTC 27.06.2021 108 14.7N 106.4W 992 41
1200UTC 27.06.2021 120 15.3N 106.5W 985 47
0000UTC 28.06.2021 132 16.4N 107.3W 980 51
1200UTC 28.06.2021 144 17.5N 107.8W 976 58
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Re: 2021 EPAC Season

#420 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:23 pm

I wonder if all this early season activity is going to drain the EPAC of energy for later? It seems like this has happened before and when things shut down, the Atlantic became very active.
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