EPAC: ENRIQUE - Remnants
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Models are much more bullish and stay off the coast.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
WTPN21 PHNC 231430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 94.4W TO 14.8N 100.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 95.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VACINITY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD LINES
THAT WRAP INTO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. ANALYSIS OF THE
SYSTEM STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE 37GHZ AND 91GHZ CHANNELS OF A
231105Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
POSSIBLE FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND A POINT
SOURCE SITUATED OVER HEAD THAT IS SUPPORTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95E WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS INTENSIFIATION TREND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241430Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 94.4W TO 14.8N 100.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 95.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VACINITY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD LINES
THAT WRAP INTO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. ANALYSIS OF THE
SYSTEM STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE 37GHZ AND 91GHZ CHANNELS OF A
231105Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
POSSIBLE FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND A POINT
SOURCE SITUATED OVER HEAD THAT IS SUPPORTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95E WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS INTENSIFIATION TREND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241430Z.
//
NNNN
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E (TCFA issued)
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 06/23/21 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 40 51 63 79 88 92 92 86 81 75 71 65 60
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 40 51 63 79 88 92 92 82 52 51 47 41 36
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 47 56 64 71 75 62 46 48 46 42 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 19 18 9 7 3 8 13 18 15 18 12 10 12 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 5 4 -4 1 2 0 0
SHEAR DIR 28 32 31 24 34 41 360 74 138 104 101 102 92 87 79 68 79
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.1 29.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 26.5 24.8 24.0
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 159 161 160 156 152 153 159 165 161 150 150 150 128 110 102
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -52.6 -51.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 5 8 5 6 4 5 2 2 0
700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 80 83 84 83 83 82 78 76 77 79 77 75 71 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 11 15 20 23 24 24 20 18 14 13 11 10
850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 27 31 28 46 47 44 56 90 101 142 127 123 70 83 59
200 MB DIV 8 32 67 99 61 97 111 140 117 141 114 131 68 68 19 0 10
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 2 0 -2 -3 7 5 1 0 -5 -1
LAND (KM) 424 367 332 325 320 326 325 291 213 147 39 0 -10 90 271 256 298
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.7 18.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.1 97.0 97.8 98.7 99.9 100.8 101.4 101.7 102.2 103.0 103.9 105.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 9 8 6 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 14 19 23 25 25 23 21 21 24 29 28 12 11 9 1 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 36. 39. 42. 43. 43. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 23. 24. 24. 18. 14. 8. 6. 4. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 15. 26. 38. 54. 63. 67. 67. 61. 56. 50. 46. 40. 35.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 95.0
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.1% 28.6% 14.1% 7.8% 6.1% 29.5% 62.9% 72.9%
Bayesian: 0.2% 15.5% 3.8% 1.2% 1.1% 20.2% 36.0% 70.5%
Consensus: 2.1% 21.5% 11.1% 3.0% 2.4% 21.9% 38.4% 47.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 06/23/21 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 40 51 63 79 88 92 92 86 81 75 71 65 60
V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 40 51 63 79 88 92 92 82 52 51 47 41 36
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 47 56 64 71 75 62 46 48 46 42 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 19 18 9 7 3 8 13 18 15 18 12 10 12 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 5 4 -4 1 2 0 0
SHEAR DIR 28 32 31 24 34 41 360 74 138 104 101 102 92 87 79 68 79
SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.1 29.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 26.5 24.8 24.0
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 159 161 160 156 152 153 159 165 161 150 150 150 128 110 102
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -52.6 -51.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 5 8 5 6 4 5 2 2 0
700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 80 83 84 83 83 82 78 76 77 79 77 75 71 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 11 15 20 23 24 24 20 18 14 13 11 10
850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 27 31 28 46 47 44 56 90 101 142 127 123 70 83 59
200 MB DIV 8 32 67 99 61 97 111 140 117 141 114 131 68 68 19 0 10
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 2 0 -2 -3 7 5 1 0 -5 -1
LAND (KM) 424 367 332 325 320 326 325 291 213 147 39 0 -10 90 271 256 298
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.7 18.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.0 96.1 97.0 97.8 98.7 99.9 100.8 101.4 101.7 102.2 103.0 103.9 105.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 9 8 6 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 14 19 23 25 25 23 21 21 24 29 28 12 11 9 1 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 36. 39. 42. 43. 43. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 23. 24. 24. 18. 14. 8. 6. 4. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 15. 26. 38. 54. 63. 67. 67. 61. 56. 50. 46. 40. 35.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 95.0
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.1% 28.6% 14.1% 7.8% 6.1% 29.5% 62.9% 72.9%
Bayesian: 0.2% 15.5% 3.8% 1.2% 1.1% 20.2% 36.0% 70.5%
Consensus: 2.1% 21.5% 11.1% 3.0% 2.4% 21.9% 38.4% 47.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Yellow Evan
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Sciencerocks
- Category 5
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- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
12z HWRF has 95E start off with a small core, undergo an EWRC, and peak as a Cat 2 prior to landfall in 5.5-6 days.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
12z ECMWF calling for a minimal hurricane by day 5 but now keeps this offshore aside from brushing Baja California Sur.
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Showers and thunderstorm have changed little in organization during
the past several hours in association with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. This system is expected to be
near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico this weekend, and
interests in those areas should monitor its progress for
development, and the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
the past several hours in association with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. This system is expected to be
near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico this weekend, and
interests in those areas should monitor its progress for
development, and the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 06/23/21 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 45 58 73 83 91 97 92 82 74 73 71 69 68
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 45 58 73 83 91 97 92 82 74 73 71 69 68
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 44 54 65 74 81 81 72 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 18 10 11 6 6 13 18 23 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 5 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 36 27 26 37 52 27 13 23 114 79 79 87 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 162 161 157 153 155 156 156 154 152 148 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 79 81 81 81 82 80 83 77 74 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 10 14 20 22 24 28 28 23 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 23 30 31 33 56 58 64 84 112 113 129 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 34 66 90 79 82 110 107 111 119 137 102 90 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 0 -2 -6 -6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 401 335 281 271 286 317 296 280 203 168 133 168 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 17 22 25 24 22 21 21 20 19 16 13 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 43. 45. 48.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 19. 25. 31. 29. 22. 17. 15. 14. 12. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 33. 48. 58. 66. 72. 67. 57. 49. 48. 46. 44. 43.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 95.9
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.29 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 16.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 8.2% 3.7% 1.6% 0.9% 14.4% 68.3% 69.9%
Bayesian: 0.1% 11.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 67.5%
Consensus: 0.4% 13.5% 7.9% 0.8% 0.4% 10.6% 28.7% 45.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 14.0% 28.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 06/23/21 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 45 58 73 83 91 97 92 82 74 73 71 69 68
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 45 58 73 83 91 97 92 82 74 73 71 69 68
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 44 54 65 74 81 81 72 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 18 10 11 6 6 13 18 23 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 5 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 36 27 26 37 52 27 13 23 114 79 79 87 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 162 161 157 153 155 156 156 154 152 148 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 79 81 81 81 82 80 83 77 74 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 7 10 14 20 22 24 28 28 23 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 23 30 31 33 56 58 64 84 112 113 129 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 34 66 90 79 82 110 107 111 119 137 102 90 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 0 -2 -6 -6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 401 335 281 271 286 317 296 280 203 168 133 168 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 17 22 25 24 22 21 21 20 19 16 13 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 43. 45. 48.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 19. 25. 31. 29. 22. 17. 15. 14. 12. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 33. 48. 58. 66. 72. 67. 57. 49. 48. 46. 44. 43.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 95.9
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.29 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 16.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 8.2% 3.7% 1.6% 0.9% 14.4% 68.3% 69.9%
Bayesian: 0.1% 11.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 67.5%
Consensus: 0.4% 13.5% 7.9% 0.8% 0.4% 10.6% 28.7% 45.8%
DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 14.0% 28.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
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Sciencerocks
- Category 5
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 23 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located a couple
of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of
days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or
southwestern Mexico through the weekend, and interests in those
areas should monitor its potential for development, as well as the
threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 23 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located a couple
of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of
days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or
southwestern Mexico through the weekend, and interests in those
areas should monitor its potential for development, as well as the
threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 06/24/21 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 60 69 80 88 89 86 78 77 75 73 71
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 60 69 80 88 89 86 78 77 75 73 71
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 33 37 43 51 61 67 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 20 21 16 15 13 8 13 10 8 19 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 1 4 0 0 1 -3 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 13 8 22 37 37 32 39 70 88 63 82 103 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 158 155 152 153 154 155 154 152 153 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.0 -53.0 -51.9 -52.7 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 5 7 5 6 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 77 78 81 82 84 84 84 85 83 82 79 79 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 10 13 14 18 22 22 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 11 23 47 40 48 46 75 76 87 84 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 49 71 57 77 118 104 121 111 162 139 124 121 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 374 348 323 337 357 369 370 355 268 238 226 208 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 5 5 6 6 5 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 21 25 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 43. 45. 48.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 24. 24. 21. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 44. 55. 63. 64. 61. 53. 52. 50. 48. 46.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 96.9
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.11 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 14.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 5.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 7.7% 43.2% 40.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 2.2% 39.2%
Consensus: 0.2% 8.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.2% 7.6% 19.9% 26.4%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% 4.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 06/24/21 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 60 69 80 88 89 86 78 77 75 73 71
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 60 69 80 88 89 86 78 77 75 73 71
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 33 37 43 51 61 67 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 20 21 16 15 13 8 13 10 8 19 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 1 4 0 0 1 -3 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 13 8 22 37 37 32 39 70 88 63 82 103 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 158 155 152 153 154 155 154 152 153 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.0 -53.0 -51.9 -52.7 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 5 7 5 6 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 77 78 81 82 84 84 84 85 83 82 79 79 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 10 13 14 18 22 22 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 11 23 47 40 48 46 75 76 87 84 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 49 71 57 77 118 104 121 111 162 139 124 121 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 374 348 323 337 357 369 370 355 268 238 226 208 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 5 5 6 6 5 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 21 25 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. 43. 45. 48.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 24. 24. 21. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 35. 44. 55. 63. 64. 61. 53. 52. 50. 48. 46.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 96.9
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.11 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 14.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 5.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 7.7% 43.2% 40.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 2.2% 39.2%
Consensus: 0.2% 8.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.2% 7.6% 19.9% 26.4%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% 4.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/24/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
EC ens mean stays well off shore.
.................................................................................................................................................................................
Maybe end up being a system to document for J Morgerman.
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Was on par with the bom 12 UTC run. 
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Confidence of a strong hurricane is slowly decreasing as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF have backed off gradually in recent cycles, and now favoring an MDR storm in the Atlantic.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
One thing it could be is that the system to its west playing a bigger role. In the EPAC, models struggle in intensity when there's systems close to each other like this.
They struggled with Felicia and Enrique in 2009, and also in 2018 with Ileana and John.
Regardless, this was modeled to develop by the weekend.
They struggled with Felicia and Enrique in 2009, and also in 2018 with Ileana and John.
Regardless, this was modeled to develop by the weekend.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
If the upper troposphere temperature is cold enough with the weak shear forecasts. My money is on a cane. 
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 24 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Although showers and thunderstorms have increased in association
with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of southern Mexico, the circulation remains broad and elongated.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of
days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or
southwestern Mexico through the weekend, and interests in those
areas should monitor its potential for development, as well as the
threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 24 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Although showers and thunderstorms have increased in association
with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of southern Mexico, the circulation remains broad and elongated.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of
days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or
southwestern Mexico through the weekend, and interests in those
areas should monitor its potential for development, as well as the
threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
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