2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[Ubuntwo]

18z Euro less bullish on this wave but still eventually closes it off and deepens it to a TD/weak TS.

Peaks at 1003mb/45kt.

[MarioProtVI]

HY-2B Scat just came in.. decent for light to moderate convection and clear air. It has some issues with heavy convection but in this case things look pretty reliable.

clear cut case here. Should be a TD

https://i.ibb.co/sm8HrBt/Capture.png

11L 2018 flashbacks

[Yellow Evan]

This is definitely classifiable though I doubt it will be for very long.

[chaser1]

What planet am I on, where models have us seriously contemplating a strong wave east of the Antilles, a strong wave set to emerge off the African coast, and yet another potent wave following that one.... in June?? Furthermore, now the EURO is sniffing development in the far E. Atlantic along with the ICON, yet GFS say's "pass" (however the GFS 18Z now has this as a deeper low then prior runs). Oh, and mid-Atlantic troughs?? TUTT?? My eyes are seeing busy. They're also seeing a predominant steering pattern that could spell trouble down the road if things hold steady

[Stormybajan]

Yeah..when I saw they kept this wave at 10% I was baffled. I guess the NHC are sticking to their guns that shear will kill it but i've noted this WSW or S motion its trying to do, and none of the models seemed to have initialized it as well organized as it is right now...im wondering if its trying to get lower to avoid the shear north of it and have a bit more breathing room? In any case I dont think I've seen a tropical wave in June just be STUCK between 50-57 W. From what I gather it should pick up some speed tomorrow?

[ElectricStorm]

I'm surprised this isn't even an invest yet... Seems like it's doing better than expected, at least for now. Probably not for long though.

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT-A

more than enough for a TD. LLC has dropped even farther south almost below shear axis.. Should also help the models out for maybe 00z. but def for 6z.

[galaxy401]

Seeing those long model tracks is not something I want to see when it's still June. Is the MJO over the Atlantic cause that is quite a wave!

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like a TD or even TS on ascat ambiguities.

[Deshaunrob17]

Calling hurricane hunters!!!

[Aric Dunn]

So ASCAT-A , B, C and HY-2B all show a full on TD borderline TS with sustained deep convection.. moving wsw into less shear....

- models barely even notice it is there
-not an invest
- Steering indicates West to WSW motion for at least the next 12 to 24 hours.


well.... sort of at a loss on this one .. lol

[AxaltaRacing24]

I am amazed at the areas of the Atlantic we are watching for storms in right now. You would think this is August.

[USTropics]

00z GFS jumping on board with a tiny core system traversing the MDR:

[AutoPenalti]

So ASCAT-A , B, C and HY-2B all show a full on TD borderline TS with sustained deep convection.. moving wsw into less shear....

- models barely even notice it is there
-not an invest
- Steering indicates West to WSW motion for at least the next 12 to 24 hours.


well.... sort of at a loss on this one .. lol

Seems like this is a meso-scale feature, occurring rapidly and without warning, which models will have a hard time being able to initiate properly because of their grid scale.

[Aric Dunn]

So ASCAT-A , B, C and HY-2B all show a full on TD borderline TS with sustained deep convection.. moving wsw into less shear....

- models barely even notice it is there
-not an invest
- Steering indicates West to WSW motion for at least the next 12 to 24 hours.


well.... sort of at a loss on this one .. lol

Seems like this is a meso-scale feature, which models will never be able to initiate properly because of their grid scale.

This is much too large now to be mesoscale issues.

[USTropics]

00z GFS is back to tracking this into the subtropics off the EC with further development:

[Aric Dunn]

00z GFS is back to tracking this into the subtropics off the EC with further development:

https://i.imgur.com/iEbT7Oo.png

I don't think it ingested the SCAT data into the 00z though. 6z should be a bit different.

00z still has it moving wnw then NW when it clearly is not.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS is back to tracking this into the subtropics off the EC with further development:

[url]https://i.imgur.com/iEbT7Oo.png[/rl]

Similar to the Australian model.

[AutoPenalti]

So ASCAT-A , B, C and HY-2B all show a full on TD borderline TS with sustained deep convection.. moving wsw into less shear....

- models barely even notice it is there
-not an invest
- Steering indicates West to WSW motion for at least the next 12 to 24 hours.


well.... sort of at a loss on this one .. lol

Seems like this is a meso-scale feature, which models will never be able to initiate properly because of their grid scale.

This is much too large now to be mesoscale issues.

Development seemed rapid though. HWRF had it been running would have most likely detected this.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Code orange now...should see an invest designation later today.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa
later today. Although ocean temperatures are still relatively cool
over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and are only marginally conducive
for development, a small tropical depression could form by early
next week while moving westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg