ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

95L.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.10N.22W.

AL, 95, 2021062412, , BEST, 0, 50N, 170W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, SPAWNINVEST, al782021 to al952021,

[AutoPenalti]

Best Track

[aspen]

Let the fun begin.

Hopefully we’ll get the first HWRF run(s) later today. I’m very interested as to what they think about this system.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmmm... you can clearly see the MLC.. but it appears offset from a fairly defined low level circ as well..

that happened rather fast and at 3.2 North !

[Ivanhater]

Looking good this morning.

Will be interesting to see the hurricane models on this later today. Also, if we do get a low established that far south that Aric pointed out, how the globals deal with that later.

[cycloneye]

Looking good this morning.

Will be interesting to see the hurricane models on this later today. Also, if we do get a low established that far south that Aric pointed out, how the globals deal with that later.

Yes, HWRF, HMON.

[abajan]

Hmmmm... you can clearly see the MLC.. but it appears offset from a fairly defined low level circ as well..

that happened rather fast and at 3.2 North !

https://i.ibb.co/h2HXtRM/LABELS-19700101-000000-88.gif

Gotta be a record!

[AutoPenalti]

Well, looks like I know what I'll be doing today instead of focusing on work.

[abajan]

The LOW's so low the Invest 95L text is outside the edge of the S2K graphic.

[Aric Dunn]

Well ASCAT just caught the western edge of the MLC/LLC... besides the slightly higher ambiguities from being on the edge.... looks like it is coming together rather quickly and well you can see the winds.

[JRD]

Can get a few guesses out of the GFS cyclone phase model. It begins as a symmetric shallow cold-cored cyclone that becomes a slightly more symmetric moderately warm-cored cyclone (TD04/Danny) that then becomes more asymmetric as it approaches South America (shear?). The model also has it in sub-26 waters for some time.


Interestingly, high wind shear appears to extend far to the east of the Antilles, as suggested by the shear map in this site:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Stormybajan]

At 5.0 N 17 W this wave has a longgg way to travel before anyone can even think about land impacts. Based on the current shear map (which we know always changes) the pathway looks easy for it until lets say 40W, after that shear looks strong. This and how far north the center travels will make or break 95L, south is better for development and for longevity and being this far out anything can happen (poof or no poof)

[tolakram]

The chance of this becoming a significant storm is slim to none IMO. If it manages to stay in warm enough waters and avoid the shear this will really be one for the record books in my opinion.

[JRD]

Some Saharan dust in the high tropical and subtropical latitudes of the Atlantic. Don't really know how much it's going to affect chances.
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html

[AutoPenalti]

Some Saharan dust in the high tropical and subtropical latitudes of the Atlantic. Don't really know how much it's going to affect chances.
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html

I personally don't like using graphics from the media since it's not as accurate. Here's a better look.

[chaser1]

Other then the system appear slightly tilted west to east, the slightly more westward MLC does appear to quickly becoming dominant. Other thing that Aric already brought up is that this potent disturbance appears well south of Best Track and appears to be playing the "How Low Can You Go" Limbo Song . As for motion, I'm just not seeing too much gain in latitude given the apparent strong mid level ridge that extends from Africa westward for quite a ways. I don't see SST's as a genesis issue but looking at satellite, that's fairly obvious. Is a defined closed LLC already established? Perhaps not quite yet.... but it's not far off. Given the strong northerly winds on the west semi-circle, present convective bursting, and relatively slow westward motion I don't see anything that would impede this from being tagged a T.D. today or tomm. and probably a nearly immediate upgrade to T.S. thereafter. Break out the record-books boys and girls

[Aric Dunn]

This thing is wrapping incredibly fast.. hopefully we get some good microwave passes today..

[Deshaunrob17]

I wonder if this gonna be a case where the first wave makes a favorable environment for the second wave? There seem to be growing bus with the next wave

[Stormybajan]

Given 95L current organization it would not be a surprise to see the development chances raised to 40-70

[Chemmers]

It does look like it is trying to get organised very quickly?