2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[JW-_-]

https://imgur.com/6NwN8uf


https://imgur.com/CBhrhTj

Big fat ridge there atm on the model.

[JW-_-]

https://imgur.com/5Afe3ra


Humm ec ens down the centre of the ally, looking for a strike.

[Aric Dunn]

Not in any of the models. but the boundaries can often spin things up without model support.

So watch the developing low NE of the Bahamas.

as well and a surge coming into the SE Gulf mixing with left over stalled trough.. both areas are of interest.

[Stormybajan]

Euro is hopping on that new wave behind 95L at a week out from now as a lowrider near Grenada. Interesting. Lets see if it sticks this time

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro is hopping on that new wave behind 95L at a week out from now as a lowrider near Grenada. Interesting. Lets see if it sticks this time

Looks like a big ridge develops on the east coast fairly soon too. I hope it is not there in August/September!

[SFLcane]

Check back in early August.

[CyclonicFury]

EPS now has many members develop the wave behind 95L. Not buying it after what seems to be a bust with 95L. Hopefully the ECMWF isn't going to be TOO aggressive with MDR development now...

[aspen]

EPS now has many members develop the wave behind 95L. Not buying it after what seems to be a bust with 95L. Hopefully the ECMWF isn't going to be TOO aggressive with MDR development now...

The operational global models, especially the GFS and Euro, are showing this strong wave and getting it close to closing off. Even Levi mentioned it in his latest video. It might be something to watch once it finally exits Africa in a few days, and it could be an even lower rider than 95L.

[Category5Kaiju]

It almost seems like each successive wave gets more menacing than the one that proceeds it...

[Hammy]

It almost seems like each successive wave gets more menacing than the one that proceeds it...

I don't recall who, but I remember somebody wondering if 95L would clear the way for the next waves to possibly develop, rather than developing itself. Models seem like they're trending this way.

[Aric Dunn]

Dont forget about the piece of energy that broke off the system that was east of Barbados several days ago.. if you recall many model runs had this energy develop..

well there is some broad turning and moderate convection.. more fun..

[SFLcane]

12z Euro has almost 3 developed TC’s across the Atlantic basin.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has almost 3 developed TC’s across the Atlantic basin.

2 in the MDR. Let's see if it develops them in its 00z run as well... Or maybe the 12z Euro run is now becoming a happy hour run type run.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro has almost 3 developed TC’s across the Atlantic basin.

Yeah but it weakens them pretty quickly.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/stat ... 64/photo/1

[AxaltaRacing24]

12z Euro has almost 3 developed TC’s across the Atlantic basin.

Yeah but it weakens them pretty quickly.

to be honest, any mdr tc developing in june or early july is concerning. this wave train is alarmingly strong.

[SFLcane]

I must say I am impressed by how robust these AEW’s have been. Check out the HAFS model from AOML. Yes I know that is a powerful hurricane in the 970’s in late June early July. If this comes to pass find somewhere to hide come August.

[AlphaToOmega]

I must say I am impressed by how robust these AEW’s have been. Check out the HAFS model from AOML. Yes I know that is a powerful hurricane in the 970’s in late June early July. If this comes to pass find somewhere to hide come August.

https://i.imgur.com/FRv53Ep.gif

It seems like Invest 95L was heavily inspired by Hurricane Emily (2005).

[SFLcane]

I must say I am impressed by how robust these AEW’s have been. Check out the HAFS model from AOML. Yes I know that is a powerful hurricane in the 970’s in late June early July. If this comes to pass find somewhere to hide come August.

https://i.imgur.com/FRv53Ep.gif

It seems like Invest 95L was heavily inspired by Hurricane Emily (2005).

This is potentially for wave exiting Africa now.

[AlphaToOmega]

Can we not?????