ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Models

[BobHarlem]

95L 18z early intensity models went way back up for some reason after next to nothing on 12z.

[USTropics]

FYI you can get 18z and 06z plots of ECWMF ensembles out to 144 hours at weathernerds (https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html).

18z run:


12z run through 144 hours:

[Kingarabian]

FYI you can get 18z and 06z plots of ECWMF ensembles out to 144 hours at weathernerds (https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html).

18z run:
https://i.imgur.com/YV2sfLE.png

12z run through 144 hours:
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ecens_2021-06-25-12Z_144_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

Is it possible that those EPS runs are also including a tropical wave that's supposed to follow 95L?

[USTropics]

FYI you can get 18z and 06z plots of ECWMF ensembles out to 144 hours at weathernerds (https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html).

18z run:
https://i.imgur.com/YV2sfLE.png

12z run through 144 hours:
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/ecens_2021-06-25-12Z_144_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

Is it possible that those EPS runs are also including a tropical wave that's supposed to follow 95L?

The northern members with the short-term development are definitely 95L, the southern members I'd be inclined to say are the wave exiting Africa in ~24-36 hours. The loop gives a more accurate depiction of this:



GFS loses the AEW on the 18z run (GFS has a third wave departing the coast in ~48 hours that essentially outpaces is). CMC 12z has a good depiction of this wave though in the general vicinity as the southern members of the ECMWF ensembles:

[Kingarabian]

Ah makes sense. WAfrica is in rapid fire mode at this point with the number of waves exiting the coast.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS now develops 95L in the Caribbean as a weak TS.

[Homie J]

HWRF 12z goes crazy with 95L, bringing it down to 982 mb and also tries to make it a pinhole.

[abajan]

HWRF 12z goes crazy with 95L, bringing it down to 982 mb and also tries to make it a pinhole.

That model tends to over-strengthen systems. Sometimes it's right, though.

[aspen]

HWRF 12z goes crazy with 95L, bringing it down to 982 mb and also tries to make it a pinhole.

That model tends to over-strengthen systems. Sometimes it's right, though.

It’s been better in recent years but often over-estimates invests in early runs. However, the 12z run does not start to develop 95L until it has passed 50W, when SSTs are at least 27-27.5C all around it instead of just to the south.

[aspen]

The vorticity signature for 95L is a little stronger on the 18z run, and it kind of looks like a tiny TC. The track is also further north and has it make a direct landfall around Antigua/Barbuda.

[aspen]

18z HWRF loses this around 40W…and apparently goes backwards. I have no idea what happened.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF loses this around 40W…and apparently goes backwards. I have no idea what happened.

HWRF for MDR invests is always way overcooked.

[aspen]

18z HWRF loses this around 40W…and apparently goes backwards. I have no idea what happened.

HWRF for MDR invests is always way overcooked.

Turns out the HWRF is switching focus from 95L to the wave behind it at around 60-80 hours out.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1409142602914484224

[HurricaneFrances04]

Canadian has shown 95L develop in the Caribbean the last few runs. This is probably the strongest run yet.



Nothing on the GFS ensembles though. They do seem to like the wave behind 95L.

[AlphaToOmega]

For what it is worth, the ECMWF has an 80-90% chance of Invest 95L developing and a 30-40% chance of Invest 96L developing.

[Ubuntwo]

0z HWRF develops this into a Caribbean major (no, it's not the wave behind 95L like in past runs)


Looks like we'll be watching this one for a while.

The CMC develops it into a weak TS in the WCarib and the GFS still isn't a fan. There was moderate support in the 18z EURO and EPS for development before the islands.

[AxaltaRacing24]

0z HWRF develops this into a Caribbean major (no, it's not the wave behind 95L like in past runs)
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/858949250871459870/hwrf_satIR_95L_17.png?width=854&height=676

Looks like we'll be watching this one for a while.

I was waiting for somebody to post this one...

Yeah, I don't quite think this scenario is happening. It's not August.

[Ubuntwo]

0z HWRF develops this into a Caribbean major (no, it's not the wave behind 95L like in past runs)
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/858949250871459870/hwrf_satIR_95L_17.png?width=854&height=676

Looks like we'll be watching this one for a while.

I was waiting for somebody to post this one...

Yeah, I don't quite think this scenario is happening. It's not August.

It's the HWRF. Par for the course and almost certainly not happening. But it's a big shift from the 0 development of the past couple runs and a sign that conditions could be okay down the road.

[Stormybajan]

0z HWRF develops this into a Caribbean major (no, it's not the wave behind 95L like in past runs)
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/858949250871459870/hwrf_satIR_95L_17.png?width=854&height=676

Looks like we'll be watching this one for a while.

The CMC develops it into a weak TS in the WCarib and the GFS still isn't a fan. There was moderate support in the 18z EURO and EPS for development before the islands.

This tell me two things...
1. HWRF is drunk at 2 am
2. Conditions clearly are not as bad as models thought a couple days ago with all of them showing some form of vorticity associated in 95L and the wave behind 95L