Surface trough offshore the SE U.S. (Is Invest 96L)

[weeniepatrol]

Yep this looks quite suspicious. Seems people are sleeping on it IMO

[Kingarabian]

Had a bunch of similar situations in the EPAC side of things so far. Even one case in the CPAC. Without model support they for the most part don't end up developing or don't fit the NHC criteria.

[Aric Dunn]

Had a bunch of similar situations in the EPAC side of things so far. Even one case in the CPAC. Without model support they for the most part don't end up developing or don't fit the NHC criteria.

Then there is last year.. where a 1/3 of everything had no model support until it developed ... lol

[Kingarabian]

Had a bunch of similar situations in the EPAC side of things so far. Even one case in the CPAC. Without model support they for the most part don't end up developing or don't fit the NHC criteria.

Then there is last year.. where a 1/3 of everything had no model support until it developed ... lol

Well another factor making it tricky this year is the NHC getting a bit more strict IMO. It appears they want systems to clearly exhibit TC characteristics for an extended period of time, and not something that pulsates with the diurnal period of the day.

[Aric Dunn]

A little perspective.. If this develops it would be a SE landfall somewhere.

[Aric Dunn]

We seriously need a couple of ascat passes to input into thje models tonight.. this is getting interesting..

[aspen]

That big tower is a dead givaway... the curved shape to the towers as well.

and the low level inflow all point to a well defined LLC..

this may spin up rather quickly...

and depending on the placement with the ULL (which is dying) the shear should be at least partially favorable to the coast.

https://i.ibb.co/3FP4WFy/LABELS-19700101-000000-96.gif



https://i.ibb.co/MP319P8/Capture.png

Looking at the models, it appears this only has around 48-54 hours max before landfall, so it would have to spin up quickly to have a chance at a name. It’ll be going over the Gulf Stream so that’ll be something to watch out for.

I wonder if this could be a decently significant storm that is missed by the models, like Bill.

[Stormybajan]

Starting to get that look I've been sleeping on this

[tailgater]

No changes in %, 15mph sounds better

Disturbance 2: 10% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours
As of 8:00 pm EDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...
A surface trough located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda
is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Surface pressures are currently high across the
area, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated while it moves westward and then west-northwestward at
about 15 mph over the next few days, reaching the coast of the
southeastern United States late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

3 hours ago. just as that large burst begin. ASCAT-A

very likely closed off now..

Deep convection has been increasing... if this continues then a high chance of development tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT-C

if convection continues all night.. it will be very close to a TD.. even by the modest new NHC standards..

[Homie J]

Up to 20% now

[Aric Dunn]

That is quite a bit of low level westerly inflow...

very apparent that if convection continues overnight... it will be quite likley a TD by tomorrow evening..

[Aric Dunn]

A little Data for the models.. and look what happens..

00z Euro

[Aric Dunn]

This is almost certainly closed. pretty clear.. the westerly inflow is very obvious..

if convection maintains ( no reason not too) this will be a TD very soon.

[USTropics]

low-level vorticity over the past 24 hours:

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe straight to TD at 11am givien the trend..

[Hammy]

Still not closed on most recent ASCAT, though that was just before midnight.

[Aric Dunn]

Still not closed on most recent ASCAT, though that was just before midnight.

https://i.imgur.com/M3HVNQF.png

That is from 7 hours ago..

it is 100% closed.

[LarryWx]

Still not closed on most recent ASCAT, though that was just before midnight.

https://i.imgur.com/M3HVNQF.png

That is from 7 hours ago..

it is 100% closed.

But is it closed all of the way to the surface or else a little above it?

I will note that successive GFS/Euro/CMC models have gotten this a bit more organized with each run fwiw, including the 6Z GFS. So, these model trends, alone, suggest this is something worth monitoring as whatever it becomes will come into the far N FL/GA/lower SC area Monday with at least some heavy rain and accompanying gusty winds in numerous tropical showers/TS along with a windy day along especially the SC coast. Shear is forecasted to be mainly moderate to the coast from what I can tell.