ATL: DANNY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 96, 2021062712, , BEST, 0, 290N, 711W, 30, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, SPAWNINVEST, al792021 to al962021,

[aspen]

This looks to have a circulation, but convection is rather strung out. It would need to focus to be able to become a TC.

[tailgater]

Looks strung out on IR this morning but visible is showing a different story, I think if they flew a plane in there they could classify it but for the linear convection pattern. Watching to see if a few hot towers fire up to organize it further.

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least they made it an invest lol..

this has a full on closed circ. the convection is being narrow a little from the ULL but the convection remains over the LLC.

The ULL appears to be dropping a little wsw and pulling away from the LLC. this should allow the convection to expand some more.

No reason this should not be a TD.... hopefully some SCAT passes actually hit it.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Recon scheduled.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271522
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 27/1600Z
D. 31.2N 78.8W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[aspen]

There’s a nice burst of convection over the forming LLC. In his video from last night, Levi pointed out that 96L will be sandwiched between two ULLs, which will be problematic for outflow being stablished and could be why we’re seeing an elongated convective pattern.

[Stormybajan]

Recon scheduled.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271522
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 27/1600Z
D. 31.2N 78.8W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

Cant remember ever seeing a recon scheduled and prompted to go out on a mission the same day

[Aric Dunn]

Recon scheduled.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271522
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 27 JUNE 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 27/1600Z
D. 31.2N 78.8W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

Cant remember ever seeing a recon scheduled and prompted to go out on a mission the same day

I suppose they really did not have a choice but to fly into it today. waiting for tomorrow would be too late.

[HurricaneEnzo]

This is looking pretty good right now. If trends continue we probably have something classified by end of day

Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

[CyclonicFury]

The recon is likely tomorrow. I think the date was marked wrong.
 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1409171810516602880

[Aric Dunn]

The recon is likely tomorrow. I think the date was marked wrong.
https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1409171810516602880

30 hours from now it may already be on the coast.. lets hope its today lol

[aspen]

The recon is likely tomorrow. I think the date was marked wrong.
https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1409171810516602880

30 hours from now it may already be on the coast.. lets hope its today lol

I hope this doesn’t end up like Dolores, where it got to the coast before recon could even take off. Hopefully they move the flight to earlier in the day.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the ULL low is moving just a little faster than the system. Opening up a pretty good outflow channel to the NW.

[tailgater]

The hot tower currently firing off has the highest cloud tops this disturbance has had yet so its likely deepening now along with warming water temps. I think we will see a TS before landfall. Just MHO.

[tolakram]

Sure looks like a CDO is forming. Probably best look this year so far, even if it's not real.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=7581&y=5029&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Chemmers]

Looks like the out flow is picking up

[aspen]

Up to 50/50 in the 2pm TWO!

[psyclone]

I've noticed that stuff keeps happening. In places and at times where it typically doesn't....forcing the NHC to play catch up which is something they tend to avoid. It makes me think peak season is going to jam no matter what becomes of this disturbance.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

50/50 is definitely warranted.

[MGC]

Looks like 96L is getting organized at a good clip. I think the weak ULL to its west is helping to ventilate the disturbance.....MGC