ATL: DANNY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

The LLC has pretty much decoupled from the MLC...I dont see an upgrade unless it starts firing over the center again or the center reforms.

[Jr0d]

With the LLC moving slower and becoming exposed, it will likely prevent further development tonight. However it will allow the ULL to the west to move further away and possibly making a less hostile environment, it will also give it more time over the gulfstream.

I would bet on this becoming a depression tomorrow. As I posted earlier, the water west of the gulfstream along the Georgia and SC coast is significantly cooler so once this system moves west of the gulfstream it will lose a lot of potential ocean energy....even if this strengthens significantly over the gulfstream tomorrow it will most likely weaken before landfall.

[AlphaToOmega]

Based on what has happened before, I would give this a high chance of development. Tropical Storms Bertha (2020) and Bill (2021) developed out of the blue, and it is possible Invest 96L is added to that list.

[Aric Dunn]

With the LLC moving slower and becoming exposed, it will likely prevent further development tonight. However it will allow the ULL to the west to move further away and possibly making a less hostile environment, it will also give it more time over the gulfstream.

I would bet on this becoming a depression tomorrow. As I posted earlier, the water west of the gulfstream along the Georgia and SC coast is significantly cooler so once this system moves west of the gulfstream it will lose a lot of potential ocean energy....even if this strengthens significantly over the gulfstream tomorrow it will most likely weaken before landfall.

water temps all the way up to the coast are in the low 80s.

and yeah as the ULL moves farther away it should alow for this too deepen ovenight.

[wxman57]

Scatterometer data from 1120Z indicate a sharp trof axis at the surface. Any circulation may be aloft. It may have peaked earlier today. Will be inland in about 24 hours.

[Jr0d]

water temps all the way up to the coast are in the low 80s.

and yeah as the ULL moves farther away it should alow for this too deepen ovenight.

2 to 3°++ cooler near the coast...Tybee Island is at 80.6°, Myrtle Beach is at 78.8°.

There is a lot of water below 80° along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina....this should inhibit significant development after this moves west of the Gulfstream.

[robbielyn]

i don’t think this will do too much.

[Aric Dunn]

water temps all the way up to the coast are in the low 80s.

and yeah as the ULL moves farther away it should alow for this too deepen ovenight.

2 to 3°++ cooler near the coast...Tybee Island is at 80.6°, Myrtle Beach is at 78.8°.

There is a lot of water below 80° along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina....this should inhibit significant development after this moves west of the Gulfstream.

check the nearby bouys currently where its at.. they are 79F it has actually been traversing a cool spot left over from the week long stalled front in this area.

bouys less then 20 miles off shore are in the low 80s.. temps go up not down..

anything right along the coast wont effect the system that close to shore.

SO yeah SSTs wont be a problem starting overnight tonight.

[robbielyn]

Based on what has happened before, I would give this a high chance of development. Tropical Storms Bertha (2020) and Bill (2021) developed out of the blue, and it is possible Invest 96L is added to that list.

yeah but you know how pesky those upper level lows can be.

[Hammy]

What happened to the recon mission? It hasn't updated since 18z.

[Jr0d]

water temps all the way up to the coast are in the low 80s.

and yeah as the ULL moves farther away it should alow for this too deepen ovenight.

2 to 3°++ cooler near the coast...Tybee Island is at 80.6°, Myrtle Beach is at 78.8°.

There is a lot of water below 80° along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina....this should inhibit significant development after this moves west of the Gulfstream.

check the nearby bouys currently where its at.. they are 79F it has actually been traversing a cool spot left over from the week long stalled front in this area.

bouys less then 20 miles off shore are in the low 80s.. temps go up not down..

anything right along the coast wont effect the system that close to shore.

SO yeah SSTs wont be a problem starting overnight tonight.

https://i.ibb.co/b1ZjVbR/1.png

Check the temps along the shore....mostly right at 80 or below along the coast of SC and GA....once this moves west of the Gulfstream it will lose a lot of latent heat from the ocean.

Also look at the SSTs on the satellite....a lot of sub 80 water west of the Gulfstream...that buoy maybe in a pool of relatively warmer water compared to the general area.

[Aric Dunn]

2 to 3°++ cooler near the coast...Tybee Island is at 80.6°, Myrtle Beach is at 78.8°.

There is a lot of water below 80° along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina....this should inhibit significant development after this moves west of the Gulfstream.

check the nearby bouys currently where its at.. they are 79F it has actually been traversing a cool spot left over from the week long stalled front in this area.

bouys less then 20 miles off shore are in the low 80s.. temps go up not down..

anything right along the coast wont effect the system that close to shore.

SO yeah SSTs wont be a problem starting overnight tonight.

https://i.ibb.co/b1ZjVbR/1.png

Check the temps along the shore....mostly right at 80 or below along the coast of SC and GA....once this moves west of the Gulfstream it will lose a lot of latent heat from the ocean.

as mentioned ... the immediate coastal temps will have almost no effect on it. especially moving at 10 to 15 mph.

[aspen]

What happened to the recon mission? It hasn't updated since 18z.

It’s an Air Force recon mission. Good communications are rare with any of those. Odds are it’s either inside the storm or has landed back at a base due to technical issues.

[CyclonicFury]

What happened to the recon mission? It hasn't updated since 18z.

It’s an Air Force recon mission. Good communications are rare with any of those. Odds are it’s either inside the storm or has landed back at a base due to technical issues.

I don't think recon was supposed to investigate 96L until tomorrow. The plane was probably just heading to a spot closer so it wouldn't have to fly as far tomorrow.

[AlphaToOmega]

A look at how the low has evolved:

[Jr0d]

as mentioned ... the immediate coastal temps will have almost no effect on it. especially moving at 10 to 15 mph.

It will be over warmer temperature tomorrow....in the vicinity of the gulfstream...after that water temps drop off by a few degrees.

I can not find a detailed SST map for the GA and SC coast...but this one showing N.Fl and GA gives an idea of what the potential energy of the water west of the Gulfstream.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/cont ... fmex.c.gif

[Aric Dunn]

as mentioned ... the immediate coastal temps will have almost no effect on it. especially moving at 10 to 15 mph.

It will be over warmer temperature tomorrow....in the vicinity of the gulfstream...after that water temps drop off by a few degrees.

I can not find a detailed SST map for the GA and SC coast...but this one showing N.Fl and GA gives an idea of what the potential energy of the water west of the Gulfstream.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/cont ... fmex.c.gif

again.. point is... temps along the path are 80 or above .. and near shore, along the coast, will have no effect on it.. especially at 10 to 15kts.

[Hammy]

What happened to the recon mission? It hasn't updated since 18z.

It’s an Air Force recon mission. Good communications are rare with any of those. Odds are it’s either inside the storm or has landed back at a base due to technical issues.

I don't think recon was supposed to investigate 96L until tomorrow. The plane was probably just heading to a spot closer so it wouldn't have to fly as far tomorrow.

Seems pretty pointless then, it'll be onshore before the mission begins.

[aspen]

It’s an Air Force recon mission. Good communications are rare with any of those. Odds are it’s either inside the storm or has landed back at a base due to technical issues.

I don't think recon was supposed to investigate 96L until tomorrow. The plane was probably just heading to a spot closer so it wouldn't have to fly as far tomorrow.

Seems pretty pointless then, it'll be onshore before the mission begins.

How long will it take to get a recon mission that isn’t scheduled right as a system or disturbance makes landfall?

[Jr0d]

The latest from the NHC did not increase the chances. We will see what happens when it's over the gulfstream tomorrow morning. Only a small window for this to develop...