ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

No westerly wind whatsoever.

[Hammy]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/858864079082750002/LATEST.png

No westerly wind whatsoever.

Certainly looks like it's trying given the shift in the NW region of the convection, but one of those instances where being closer to the ITCZ would've been beneficial as there's not enough convergence where it's at.

[Aric Dunn]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/858864079082750002/LATEST.png

No westerly wind whatsoever.

it is small, moving at a decent clip and rain rates were high..

we saw this last year ( and many others) with marcos. Where it was not upgraded until there were intermittent eye features. lol

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021062800, , BEST, 0, 113N, 364W, 25, 1009, DB

[Hurricane Mike]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYQ2PaV7Fco

Nighttime video update on the tropics. I'm somewhat impressed with 95L tonight,

[Sciencerocks]

[Cat5James]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9306/XsIWRs.gif

Convection still pulsing during the nighttime... looking forward to what we find tomorrow morning

[Stormybajan]

Best its ever looked happening right now...

[Category5Kaiju]

95L has been maintaing convection for a bit, so I don't think what we saw earlier today was an anomaly. I am certainly watching this and the wave behind it, it's been quite a spicy season for hurricane trackers like me so far already...

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

...

2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Pasch

[aspen]

Up to 20/40 at 8am.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
...

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles Wednesday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/chad_trosper/status/1409468725300969478




06z hints at opening back up to a wave in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021062812, , BEST, 0, 117N, 395W, 25, 1009, DB

[Stormybajan]

https://twitter.com/chad_trosper/status/1409468725300969478?s=21

06z hints at opening back up to a wave in the Caribbean.

I think thats the 00z since 06z and 18z runs on weathernerds usually has the white background

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/chad_trosper/status/1409468725300969478?s=21

06z hints at opening back up to a wave in the Caribbean.

I think thats the 00z since 06z and 18z runs on weathernerds usually has the white background

[SFLcane]

Looking very anemic today. Would not surprise me if this just poofs. Can’t change the calendar date

[toad strangler]

Looking very anemic today. Would not surprise me if this just poofs. Can’t change the calendar date

I don't think anyone is looking for a hurricane develop here. Who would this early? My guess would be nobody. But until it's not trackable, we track!

[AlphaToOmega]

As I said before, 45 W is the most important line of longitude for this system. Based on how this has been moving, I think it will reach that longitude by 8 PM. When it does, I think formation chances will rise significantly.

[Stormybajan]

As I said before, 45 W is the most important line of longitude for this system. Based on how this has been moving, I think it will reach that longitude by 8 PM. When it does, I think formation chances will rise significantly.

That is entirely true, 95L still has a bit of time to play with however given its resistance to conditions over the last couple of days dry air has hit it harder than I expected today. In all honesty this should be expected from a June wave even if it doesnt develop in the end