ATL: DANNY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Is the plane staying up to landfall?

[Ubuntwo]

This is by far the weakest Danny ever. Using my tropical cyclone intensity scale, Danny is only 0.28 units (35 kt and 1013 mbar at peak so far). By comparison, Claudette was 2.28 units, and Enrique was 30.34 units.

The calculation went like this:

[(1015-1013) x (35-25)]/72.5 = 0.28 units

The background pressure is closer to 1020mb. Also, looks like recon has reported 45kt FL/41kt SFMR and 1010mb pressure.

[MarioProtVI]

This is by far the weakest Danny ever. Using my tropical cyclone intensity scale, Danny is only 0.28 units (35 kt and 1013 mbar at peak so far). By comparison, Claudette was 2.28 units, and Enrique was 30.34 units.

The calculation went like this:

[(1015-1013) x (35-25)]/72.5 = 0.28 units

The background pressure is closer to 1020mb. Also, looks like recon has reported 45kt FL/41kt SFMR and 1010mb pressure.

Mesovortex, not representative of real intensity

[EquusStorm]

Making a last second bid for looking pretty good; first time since 1968 with three June named storms which ties the all time record.

[Ubuntwo]

This is by far the weakest Danny ever. Using my tropical cyclone intensity scale, Danny is only 0.28 units (35 kt and 1013 mbar at peak so far). By comparison, Claudette was 2.28 units, and Enrique was 30.34 units.

The calculation went like this:

[(1015-1013) x (35-25)]/72.5 = 0.28 units

The background pressure is closer to 1020mb. Also, looks like recon has reported 45kt FL/41kt SFMR and 1010mb pressure.

Mesovortex, not representative of real intensity

I know they throw out mesovortex readings when they're displaced from the center. This one, however, looks to be right over the circulation similar to Bertha '20 and therefore more representative of the cyclone?

[Steve]

Crazy E/W landfall intensification shows again. Not just Texas.

[cheezyWXguy]

Impressive, but this needs another burst right over the center if it’s going to keep from getting exposed. Radar gives some clues this burst may not last on its own. Specifically, the cell that just moved from se to nw directly through the center. I remember seeing this periodically when Sally was struggling as a cat1 last year, and it’s suggestive of mid level shear.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Why does this season feel like 2020 part 2 so far? If 95 and 96L form, this start would end up being more active than last year's. Ominous sign.

[Kazmit]

Why does this season feel like 2020 part 2 so far? If 95 and 96L form, this start would end up being more active than last year's. Ominous sign.

Last year taught us that a large quantity of weak storms early in the season can be an indicator for things to come when conditions improve later in the summer.

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Danny could intensify over land à la Erin 2007 et à la Claudette 2021. Just like the coast of Louisiana, the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina are mostly wetlands.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That new burst of convection is right over the center now. The shear must have relaxed just enough for this to intensify.
If this had an extra 24hrs over water...this would be a problem

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

That new burst of convection is right over the center now. The shear must have relaxed just enough for this to intensify.
If this had an extra 24hrs over water...this would be a problem

Honestly I don’t think so. Any semblance of an inner core that was developing an hour or so ago has been wiped away on radar

[Ubuntwo]

Now up to 40kt/1009mb. I guess the NHC liked the mesovortex

[wx98]

Geeze those wikipedia peeps are fast lol. Already listed as Danny.

I used to be one the full time peeps on there so I can say for sure people on there sit on go

[wx98]

This system is embedded in a large ridge so the pressure should remain very high. I think Recon is showing like 1015 mb, which is above standard atmospheric pressure.

1000 mb would likely be a solid hurricane in this environment, for comparison.

That’s super interesting. I forgot that was even possible.

I saw 1014 and had the thought that this may be the case. Came on here to see what others said lol

[captainbarbossa19]

Now up to 40kt/1009mb. I guess the NHC liked the mesovortex

By that standard, 95L should be a TS too.

[Ubuntwo]

Now up to 40kt/1009mb. I guess the NHC liked the mesovortex

By that standard, 95L should be a TS too.

95L does not have a closed surface circulation.

DANNY evidently does:


About an hour and a half away from landfall at the current motion.

[LarryWx]

Per radar and trends, we (SAV) look to get the heaviest rainfall from a couple of bands on the west/SW side of Danny rotating SW starting shortly and going for a couple of hours on and off. I wouldn't want to be driving then as tropical bands like this are often very heavy. It looks to be coming at a bad time, drive home time. So far, only occasional very light rain has fallen with light winds. I just heard thunder for the first time this afternoon.

[aspen]

I was honestly hoping Danny would be a decent MDR storm, kind of like its 2015 version but not as strong.