Western Gulf Mess

[jaguars_22]

I’m wondering if a system will spin up near the coast of Mexico and remain stationary for a while. Lots of thunderstorms in that area for the next few days!

[Aric Dunn]

oh boy.. best be waching off the central mexican coast off tampico .. getting some curves in the low levels. outflow and moisture/mid level vorticity coming from eastpac system too. this is quite common to happen.. trough coming will likely drift north..if I recall many runs had ensembles developing something right here

[jaguars_22]

I know I been watching the models for a while and they show some spin up but whatever does happen buries itself in mexico!

[Aric Dunn]

Overnight land breezes along with enhanced upper divergence should lead to some concentrated deep convection. where that happens ( or if) will be key.. as to aid increasing the low level vorticity.

[Nimbus]

The area in the Caribbean that was supposed to reach the gulf July 1st had a model run toward Texas but it looks like that circulation off Mexico may beat it if the convection persists.

[Aric Dunn]

Broad turning in the BOC.WEstern gulf... watch that convection closely.... very deep convection and sharpening trough.

a combination of land breezes mid level vorticity will often lead to system that spin up quick in this area.

There is very likely a meso vort out there somewhere.. not quite to surface but if convection keeps up like it is.. then it could easily do so.

[lrak]

The BOC buoy is windy. The pics show a bad fishing day!

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

I know this takes time, BUT this one looks like it's starting to organize fast! Trying not to cry wolf but all the low clouds in the western Gulf of Mexico are starting to rotate?

[jaguars_22]

To me it looks like it already has a good shape to it and if we see another blow up of convection in that ball shaped area we could see something. But like I said I think whatever it develops into if at all will go straight into Mexico.

[tropicwatch]

Wind shear appears to be a little high and very little 850mb vorticity at this point.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we have developing broad circ right off Tampico. circulation in the low levels is pretty clear. convection, as always, has to return and keep going..

steering is iffy as it may swing out NE or NNE before bending back to the coast. Def needs a Lemon.

[AlphaToOmega]

Sea surface temperatures and humidity are favorable. It is wind shear that could potentially hold this back.

[jaguars_22]

Is there a chance this could come north towards Texas and give us more rain? Or is that upper low over Mississippi going to block it

[Nimbus]

Wind shear appears to be a little high and very little 850mb vorticity at this point.

Any circulation at the low levels could be just an illusion then, there was inflow on the western dry side yesterday but shear from the upper low could be the only thing providing the lift.

[Aric Dunn]

Wind shear appears to be a little high and very little 850mb vorticity at this point.

Any circulation at the low levels could be just an illusion then, there was inflow on the western dry side yesterday but shear from the upper low could be the only thing providing the lift.

it is not.. surface obs and radar looking at only about 5 to 8 k feet show there is a broad circ forming.. will it be over water long enough is the only real question.
the coastal shape in the area often aid in the westerly inflow to jump start low level vorticity.

[Nimbus]

Wind shear appears to be a little high and very little 850mb vorticity at this point.

Any circulation at the low levels could be just an illusion then, there was inflow on the western dry side yesterday but shear from the upper low could be the only thing providing the lift.

it is not.. surface obs and radar looking at only about 5 to 8 k feet show there is a broad circ forming.. will it be over water long enough is the only real question.
the coastal shape in the area often aid in the westerly inflow to jump start low level vorticity.

The illusion seems to be centered about latitude 21.55 north near where the pop up thunderstorm is developing? Sat loop was down on Tidbits for a few hours so...

[Aric Dunn]

Any circulation at the low levels could be just an illusion then, there was inflow on the western dry side yesterday but shear from the upper low could be the only thing providing the lift.

it is not.. surface obs and radar looking at only about 5 to 8 k feet show there is a broad circ forming.. will it be over water long enough is the only real question.
the coastal shape in the area often aid in the westerly inflow to jump start low level vorticity.

The illusion seems to be centered about latitude 21.55 north near where the pop up thunderstorm is developing? Sat loop was down on Tidbits for a few hours so...

nothing up there.. look almost due east of tampico and that Cape thingy.

of course it will moving NNW over all but there might be a bit of an arc to the motion..

[lrak]

Sure is nice to watch that ML spin. (yes im at work) Then a big red dot starts to appear and expand. My heart starts pounding....

I use to wish these storms to our coast for surf. Then I bought an Alienware computer and became smart.

[jaguars_22]

I want to say the center could be around the new pop up of convection ese of Tampico?

[Aric Dunn]

I want to say the center could be around the new pop up of convection ese of Tampico?

the broad low level circ is in the general area.. that MLC is pretty well defined so if that new convection expands then a solid surface circ could easily form.

[AlphaToOmega]

Imagine three areas in interest in June
Is this June 29, or is this August 29?