ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[abajan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7117/6rrTE5.gif

Despite an apparent outflow boundary, that looks pretty serious to me.

The thing is I think those images are delayed by like 4 hours ..right now its not doing so hot. Dry air seems to be the issue right now but 95L has always been a night kind of system so tonight is where the action will be closely watched
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/

Good catch! I didn't check the times shown on the loop.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic about 650 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of this
disturbance is possible later this week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, likely reaching the
Lesser Antilles by Wednesday night. Regardless of development,
this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Shell Mound]

First post for the 2021 season here (though I have been reading contributions of others). As some have noted already, 95 looks a LOT different now than at any point over the last few days. Definitely think its chances are on the upswing, and this will be noted in today's NHC outlooks. Will it jump straight to a TD soon? That's a bit of a stretch. But if we keep seeing deep convection firing and the structure of the wave improve, can't rule it out.

Currently there is no sign of a mid-level circulation, much less a low-level centre. Additionally, even the ECMWF, especially its ensemble, has, like the GFS and HWRF, been too aggressive with tropical waves thus far in 2021. Over the past few days it showed 95L becoming a tropical storm by now, and that obviously has not transpired. VWS due to the TUTT should remain fairly strong and even increase as 95L bypasses the Lesser Antilles. Overall, I highly doubt that this system will become a depression or named storm, given model biases observed to date, the current absence of structural organisation, and current and expected VWS.

There is a clear vorticity signature at 850mb... let's see how 95L progresses through the day

Based on the latest trends, low-level flow in the background (net shear) is too strong for a well-defined centre to develop, given the trade-linked inversion.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021062918, , BEST, 0, 124N, 503W, 30, 1011, DB

[aspen]

Definitely not as impressive convection-wise as this morning, but there are some new hot towers firing up, and there’s what looks to be outflow to my untrained eye. I’m not giving up on this yet, but it doesn’t have much time.

[Stormybajan]

Definitely not as impressive convection-wise as this morning, but there are some new hot towers firing up, and there’s what looks to be outflow to my untrained eye. I’m not giving up on this yet, but it doesn’t have much time.

For me, development wise, it looks be done unless it can perform a miracle overnight..I think the bigger question is will it fire enough convection to have meaningful impacts to the islands tomorrow

[msbee]

Definitely not as impressive convection-wise as this morning, but there are some new hot towers firing up, and there’s what looks to be outflow to my untrained eye. I’m not giving up on this yet, but it doesn’t have much time.

For me, development wise, it looks be done unless it can perform a miracle overnight..I think the bigger question is will it fire enough convection to have meaningful impacts to the islands tomorrow

I hope no "meaningful impacts" for the islands.
But MeteoFrance has Martinique, Guadeloupe, and St Martin on yellow alert for storms tomorrow.
https://meteofrance.gp/fr/vigilance

[tolakram]

Definitely not as impressive convection-wise as this morning, but there are some new hot towers firing up, and there’s what looks to be outflow to my untrained eye. I’m not giving up on this yet, but it doesn’t have much time.

For me, development wise, it looks be done unless it can perform a miracle overnight..I think the bigger question is will it fire enough convection to have meaningful impacts to the islands tomorrow

I hope no "meaningful impacts" for the islands.
But MeteoFrance has Martinique, Guadeloupe, and St Martin on yellow alert for storms tomorrow.
https://meteofrance.gp/fr/vigilance

I'm worried about the next wave, this one seems to be improving the environment for it. Even if it doesn't develop that could be a lot of rain so I can understand the alerts.

[cycloneye]

Definitely not as impressive convection-wise as this morning, but there are some new hot towers firing up, and there’s what looks to be outflow to my untrained eye. I’m not giving up on this yet, but it doesn’t have much time.

For me, development wise, it looks be done unless it can perform a miracle overnight..I think the bigger question is will it fire enough convection to have meaningful impacts to the islands tomorrow

I hope no "meaningful impacts" for the islands.
But MeteoFrance has Martinique, Guadeloupe, and St Martin on yellow alert for storms tomorrow.
https://meteofrance.gp/fr/vigilance

Hello Barbara. Be careful there with this wave passage. Is the one behind I am much more worried about for the islands. We will see how it all evolves in the next 2-3 days.

[Sciencerocks]

[msbee]

For me, development wise, it looks be done unless it can perform a miracle overnight..I think the bigger question is will it fire enough convection to have meaningful impacts to the islands tomorrow

I hope no "meaningful impacts" for the islands.
But MeteoFrance has Martinique, Guadeloupe, and St Martin on yellow alert for storms tomorrow.
https://meteofrance.gp/fr/vigilance

Hello Barbara. Be careful there with this wave passage. Is the one behind I am much more worried about for the islands. We will see how it all evolves in the next 2-3 days.

Hi Luis. Yes, I am more worried about the one behind too.
Watching carefully.

[hurricanes1234]

For me, development wise, it looks be done unless it can perform a miracle overnight..I think the bigger question is will it fire enough convection to have meaningful impacts to the islands tomorrow

I hope no "meaningful impacts" for the islands.
But MeteoFrance has Martinique, Guadeloupe, and St Martin on yellow alert for storms tomorrow.
https://meteofrance.gp/fr/vigilance

Hello Barbara. Be careful there with this wave passage. Is the one behind I am much more worried about for the islands. We will see how it all evolves in the next 2-3 days.

Watching closely in Trinidad as well because even though the waves themselves (or whatever becomes of them) are expected to miss us to the north, it's likely that we could get peripheral impacts, plus they're probably gonna alter our wind regime as they pass to the north and trigger localised strong thunderstorms over land.

[colbroe]

Barbados is currently experiancing thundershowers and severe lightning and gustywinds 95 l is hovering nearby

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=13638&y=7898&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[abajan]

Barbados is currently experiancing thundershowers and severe lightning and gustywinds 95 l is hovering nearby

Some of the loudest thunder I've heard in quite a few years. And more's on the way as I type!

[Stormybajan]

Barbados is currently experiancing thundershowers and severe lightning and gustywinds 95 l is hovering nearby

Some of the loudest thunder I've heard in quite a few years. And more's on the way as I type!

YES! Around 5 am it woke me up. I cant remember hearing thunder that loud ever sounded like a kraken coming from the sky or something

[abajan]

Barbados is currently experiancing thundershowers and severe lightning and gustywinds 95 l is hovering nearby

Some of the loudest thunder I've heard in quite a few years. And more's on the way as I type!

YES! Around 5 am it woke me up. I cant remember hearing thunder that loud ever sounded like a kraken coming from the sky or something

I've experienced brighter lightning and louder thunder - much louder. But not in Barbados. It was a severe thunderstorm in Ohio, way back in 1980. One bolt was particularly scary. The blinding flash and accompanying thunder happened all at once: absolutely no pause between the lightning and thunder. It was just a massive BANG. My cousin, at whose house I was staying, swore it hit the antenna of his ham radio setup. Thankfully, it didn't. It must've struck a nearby tree or something.

[Sciencerocks]

[AJC3]

The ex-95L threads have been temporarily moved back into TT, since thee were starting to be discussed in the Elsa thread.

[InfernoFlameCat]

95L might not be done yet. This thing really is laying down the red carpet for Elsa whilst it steps on the hot coals of the Caribbean itself.