ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AubreyStorm]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4104/iARGqz.gif

Already TD to me…!!

[Category5Kaiju]

Here's my very bold take: Elsa will be named on June 30.

[Teban54]

Well I also think based on what we have been seeing so far that any potential comments regarding a future "2013 2.0" for this season are thrown out the window. Did 2013 have this kind of robust MDR activity so early in the season?

Surprisingly, it did. TS Chantal and Dorian '13 both formed in the MDR in July (with Dorian in the eastern MDR), though neither reached hurricane intensity.

IIRC most indicators and early-season activity for 2013 actually pointed to a very active season, as people discussed last year when comparing 2020's indicators. If it wasn't for the THC breakdown, 2013 could have been close to another hyperactive year.

[tailgater]

Our friends in the Lesser Antilles may have to start their storm preparations a little earlier this year, I’m not seeing this one fizzling out before it reaches them, afterwards? It could be classified at anytime now, I haven’t looked at the models yet but barring a ULL developing in its path it will likely continue to strengthen.

[AubreyStorm]

Our friends in the Lesser Antilles may have to start their storm preparations a little earlier this year, I’m not seeing this one fizzling out before it reaches them, afterwards? It could be classified at anytime now, I haven’t looked at the models yet but barring a ULL developing in its path it will likely continue to strengthen.

You think Puerto Rico maybe in trouble?

[tailgater]

Our friends in the Lesser Antilles may have to start their storm preparations a little earlier this year, I’m not seeing this one fizzling out before it reaches them, afterwards? It could be classified at anytime now, I haven’t looked at the models yet but barring a ULL developing in its path it will likely continue to strengthen.

You think Puerto Rico maybe in trouble?

Too far out for me to make a prediction, hoping not! When the center becomes more defined the models will be much more accurate. Probably after the 12z suites tomorrow

[Shell Mound]

Here's my very bold take: Elsa will be named on June 30.

It is interesting to note that both Elsa and Anna appear on this year’s list of names. Cue Frozen. On a related note:

 https://twitter.com/MaxLittle92/status/1410097157265399820



 https://twitter.com/MaxLittle92/status/1410097664130273284



 https://twitter.com/hoangwx/status/1410107629653958656

[Stormybajan]

Here's my very bold take: Elsa will be named on June 30.

Looking at 97L right now..it looks on the cusp of becoming a TD at 8 a.m..if organization continues as forecast it wouldnt shock me to see Elsa at 8 pm. At this rate Barbados might have to call for a Hurricane Watch or TS warning later today

[Steve]

97L is interesting for this time of year. You generally wouldn't expect a closed system to go through the southern islands and eastern Caribbean and make it through. Y'all are kind of scaring me with the 2005 and 1933 seasonal comparisons though. Haha. I didn't want to buy into it them last year, because there was no way. Way. So I'm hoping this isn't a harbinger of more records. Models after the Caribbean are divergent from coastal NC to a SWFL hit to a low pressure looking weakened but coming up into SCLA or even into Belize. It's too far out to get a feel for it. For now, I'm with whoever thinks whatever path it takes toward or through the Greater Antilles will probably indicate the most likely scenarios. Kind of weird to see that we'll at least have some threats to several islands and possibly the US over the next week or so.

[AxaltaRacing24]

97L is interesting for this time of year. You generally wouldn't expect a closed system to go through the southern islands and eastern Caribbean and make it through. Y'all are kind of scaring me with the 2005 and 1933 seasonal comparisons though. Haha. I didn't want to buy into it them last year, because there was no way. Way. So I'm hoping this isn't a harbinger of more records. Models after the Caribbean are divergent from coastal NC to a SWFL hit to a low pressure looking weakened but coming up into SCLA or even into Belize. It's too far out to get a feel for it. For now, I'm with whoever thinks whatever path it takes toward or through the Greater Antilles will probably indicate the most likely scenarios. Kind of weird to see that we'll at least have some threats to several islands and possibly the US over the next week or so.

Hopefully the EURO plays out, and it dies in the Caribbean.

[Shell Mound]

Here's my very bold take: Elsa will be named on June 30.

The circulation and presentation are still too elongated for classification as of now, diurnal maximum notwithstanding. Classification in a day or two appears more plausible, though models’ bias to date renders skepticism a realistic approach. While 94L came close to classification, it still ended up being far less organised than many models indicated, and 95L also failed to develop, contrary to models’ forecasts. Presently 97L is moving rather rapidly and thus will struggle to develop a concentrated centre, as opposed to a broad, sprawling one. I don’t expect rapid or significant organisation, so I think the ECMWF’s weaker solution is far more likely than other models’ more bullish outcome. I think 97L is likely to become a depression in a day or so, but I still doubt that it will become a tropical storm, much less a robust one, before degenerating back into a wave over the eastern Caribbean. We shall see.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[aspen]

At the rate 97L is consolidating, I think we’ll have TD5 or TS Elsa by the end of the day. Development odds could go way up at 8am.

It will likely impact the Lesser Antilles in ~48 hours. Is this close enough to warrant a PTC designation?

[Shell Mound]

Here's my very bold take: Elsa will be named on June 30.

The circulation and presentation are still too elongated for classification as of now, diurnal maximum notwithstanding. Classification in a day or two appears more plausible, though models’ bias to date renders skepticism a realistic approach. While 94L came close to classification, it still ended up being far less organised than many models indicated, and 95L also failed to develop, contrary to models’ forecasts. Presently 97L is moving rather rapidly and thus will struggle to develop a concentrated centre, as opposed to a broad, sprawling one. I don’t expect rapid or significant organisation, so I think the ECMWF’s weaker solution is far more likely than other models’ more bullish outcome. I think 97L is likely to become a depression in a day or so, but I still doubt that it will become a tropical storm, much less a robust one, before degenerating back into a wave over the eastern Caribbean. We shall see.

Satellite imagery confirms that easterly shear is keeping convection confined to the western semicircle. Only a bursting-type pattern is evident, so low-level rotation is struggling to consolidate; the latter is also persistently displaced, to the southeast of the convection. Normally a TD features persistent convection within a narrow region. In this convective cells initiate, pulse, and wane while propagating off to the west. The increase in intensity is typical of the diurnal maximum and does not necessarily indicate structural improvement. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the primary threat to the islands at this point, but the rapid forward speed should limit the potential for flooding to some extent.

[Blinhart]

Since the LA's are within 48 hours of possibly getting hit, could we see a PTC?

[xironman]

Reasonable amount of convection building near the CoC

[HurricaneEnzo]

So if Elsa does happen to form today that is the record for number of named storms in June is it not? Elsa would make 4.

[Aric Dunn]

We will likely either see a TD at 5 or 11 since barbados is about 48 hours out and watches swill have to go up.... or we get a PTC at 5 or 11. either way advisories have to go up in the next 12 hours.

besides the Euro holding back like last year. With The GFS/GEFS and HWRF showing a potential hurricane one would assume watches going up today.

[AdamFirst]

Up to 60/80 in the latest TWO.

[SFLcane]

We will likely either see a TD at 5 or 11 since barbados is about 48 hours out and watches swill have to go up.... or we get a PTC at 5 or 11. either way advisories have to go up in the next 12 hours.

besides the Euro holding back like last year. With The GFS/GEFS and HWRF showing a potential hurricane one would assume watches going up today.

Tough road ahead for sure. It’s June after all

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1410203685334966274