ATL: ELSA - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#41 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:48 pm

As mentioned, 18z Euro develops 97L into a TS, but keeps it weak through the Windward Islands.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#42 Postby toad strangler » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:58 pm

NDG wrote:As mentioned, 18z Euro develops 97L into a TS, but keeps it weak through the Windward Islands.


Last year this would be 1020 HP on the Euro :sun:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#43 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 29, 2021 9:22 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#44 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:01 pm

Three will an opportunity for 97L to eventually recurve northward. Whether that’s in the GOM,Florida or even the Bahamas is anyone’s guess.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#45 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:48 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DrHyBUu.jpg

18z...



I mean is it October already? Look at those paths.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#46 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:56 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DrHyBUu.jpg

18z...



I mean is it October already? Look at those paths.

The early part of this season is looking just as favorable as last year so far. Dare I say that the MDR looks better.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#47 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:04 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#48 Postby sma10 » Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:29 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DrHyBUu.jpg

18z...



I mean is it October already? Look at those paths.

The early part of this season is looking just as favorable as last year so far. Dare I say that the MDR looks better.


Yes was wondering this myself. Is it possible that this season becomes a mashup between 2017 and 2020?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#49 Postby USTropics » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:15 am

This is what we call model consensus, in 48 hours chances of an MDR storm are looking very likely:

GFS
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ECMWF
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CMC
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UKMET
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ICON
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NAVGEM
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HWRF
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HMON
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JMA
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ARPEGE
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GDAPS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#50 Postby USTropics » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:20 am

00z GFS ensembles:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#51 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:12 am

HWRF 00z even gets it to a cat 3 for a short amount of time before landfall in Haiti and later Cuba. Just for timeline comparisons this HWRF run reaches hurricane status on Friday (+54 hours).

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#52 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:25 am

06z GFS is essentially just a weaker Dennis.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#53 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:38 am

Not liking the trend i am seeing in the models this morning. Thankfully it’s not August

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#54 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:38 am

aspen wrote:06z GFS is essentially just a weaker Dennis.


Naw actually comes in east of Dennis near Cedar Key/St Marks area at 977 mb after ravaging the Florida west coast. Its more than a week away so purely entertainment purposes now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#55 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:46 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#56 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:08 am

SFLcane wrote:Not liking the trend i am seeing in the models this morning. Thankfully it’s not August

https://i.imgur.com/YkuhToC.gif


Crazy, it appears upper level conditions are real good and if 97L were to avoid all the land interaction it likely makes a run at Cat 2-3 hurricane... Are we sure it's June?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#57 Postby Stormybajan » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:13 am

SFLcane wrote:Not liking the trend i am seeing in the models this morning. Thankfully it’s not August

https://i.imgur.com/YkuhToC.gif


Who told 97L it was allowed a tiny friend at the end there...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#58 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:45 am

Yep, that’s exactly what’s going to happen. :lol: :roll:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#59 Postby hurricane2025 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:02 am

SFLcane wrote:Not liking the trend i am seeing in the models this morning. Thankfully it’s not August

https://i.imgur.com/YkuhToC.gif



Still faces a lot of hurdles down the road but yeah if it was august or sept would be bad
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#60 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:14 am

It’s going to struggle if it landfalls in the Islands like the ensembles are showing.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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