ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

[aspen]

When is the next ASCAT pass? It seems that 97L might be concentrating closer to 10N, a little further north than the HWRF puts it, but we’ll need ASCAT to confirm this.

[Aric Dunn]

We will likely either see a TD at 5 or 11 since barbados is about 48 hours out and watches swill have to go up.... or we get a PTC at 5 or 11. either way advisories have to go up in the next 12 hours.

besides the Euro holding back like last year. With The GFS/GEFS and HWRF showing a potential hurricane one would assume watches going up today.

Tough road ahead for sure. It’s June after all

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1410203685334966274

I don't know who that guy is..

but No.

[NDG]

We will likely either see a TD at 5 or 11 since barbados is about 48 hours out and watches swill have to go up.... or we get a PTC at 5 or 11. either way advisories have to go up in the next 12 hours.

besides the Euro holding back like last year. With The GFS/GEFS and HWRF showing a potential hurricane one would assume watches going up today.

Tough road ahead for sure. It’s June after all

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1410203685334966274

If anything its fast forward speed will help it catch up with the convection, nothing but deep easterly flow from the surface up to the upper levels because there will be a stacked ridge to its north, which usually happens during active Caribbean seasons. The TUTT will be no where near it as it approaches the Windward Islands.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Two things will be key as to how this makes it through the E Caribbean. It's size and how strong it gets prior. Larger (size) storms tend to be able to alter their own environment more than a small storm that cant, and if it is of decent size and a mid to upper TS strength or greater that will also help to change the environment it is in. Small storms have trouble surviving the E Caribbean.
Side note...I said a little prayer for the people of St Vincent this morning. After the year they have had with the volcano...a tropical storm/hurricane is the last thing they need with all the Lahars that would cause.

[NDG]

95L is moistening the envirenment for 97L nicely.
The GFS has been trending towards 97L tapping into some deep tropical moisture from S.A. as it gets into the Caribbean.

[tolakram]

SLIDER floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1045&y=1143&z=2&angle=0&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Stormybajan]

95L is moistening the envirenment for 97L nicely.
The GFS has been trending towards 97L tapping into some deep tropical moisture from S.A. as it gets into the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/Q6eURZ3.gif
https://i.imgur.com/mZUSG0f.gif

On just a pure tropical level..this is a very cool animation to watch. However as Scott pointed out if this does develop the already bad lahars in St.Vincent will be even more amplified by heavy rainfall if 97L decides to head that way

[eastcoastFL]

The Atlantic looks like a busy place this morning.

[cycloneye]

Aric Dunn, any new ASCAT? I think that will be important at this moment.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is so much convection on the south side it is hard to see if there is any westerly flow at the lower levels. I can see some coming up from the south on the sw side on hi res

[Shell Mound]

We will likely either see a TD at 5 or 11 since barbados is about 48 hours out and watches swill have to go up.... or we get a PTC at 5 or 11. either way advisories have to go up in the next 12 hours.

besides the Euro holding back like last year. With The GFS/GEFS and HWRF showing a potential hurricane one would assume watches going up today.

Tough road ahead for sure. It’s June after all

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1410203685334966274

If anything its fast forward speed will help it catch up with the convection, nothing but deep easterly flow from the surface up to the upper levels because there will be a stacked ridge to its north, which usually happens during active Caribbean seasons. The TUTT will be no where near it as it approaches the Windward Islands.

https://i.imgur.com/mdQCUL3.png

97L’s forward speed over the next three days is expected to range from ~15 to ~25 kt. By comparison, Emily (2005) proceeded westward at 17 kt as it passed through the Windward Islands, and during this timeframe it failed to intensify significantly, if at all, despite being much better organised at that time than 97L is currently. In Emily’s case strong easterlies prevailed as well, suggesting that 97L, being in its formative stage and still a sprawling system, will not organise much beyond its current state, if at all, over the next three days. Therefore, I expect a middling depression at most during the next seventy-two hours. We shall see. Furthermore:

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410191524504166405



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410192228992028676



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410192679313494016



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410197332952506372



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410198789936275460

[ScottNAtlanta]

Tough road ahead for sure. It’s June after all

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1410203685334966274

If anything its fast forward speed will help it catch up with the convection, nothing but deep easterly flow from the surface up to the upper levels because there will be a stacked ridge to its north, which usually happens during active Caribbean seasons. The TUTT will be no where near it as it approaches the Windward Islands.

https://i.imgur.com/mdQCUL3.png

97L’s forward speed over the next three days is expected to range from ~15 to ~25 kt. By comparison, Emily (2005) proceeded westward at 17 kt as it passed through the Windward Islands, and during this timeframe it failed to intensify significantly, if at all, despite being much better organised at that time than 97L is currently. In Emily’s case strong easterlies prevailed as well, suggesting that 97L, being in its formative stage and still a sprawling system, will not organise much beyond its current state, if at all, over the next three days. Therefore, I expect a middling depression at most during the next seventy-two hours. We shall see. Furthermore:

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410191524504166405
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410192228992028676
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410192679313494016
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410197332952506372
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410198789936275460

I think I beg to differ on your Emily 2005 take.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric Dunn, any new ASCAT? I think that will be important at this moment.

Most recent is the HY-2B about 4 hours ago. (HY-2B is comparable to ASCAT in manyways. some biases are enhanced in high rain rates though. some tweeks are still being made to improve it. )

well on its way. Easily a TD.

[SFLcane]

I see wxman57 ready to bring down the hammer it won’t get passed 30-40kts and die in eastern Caribbean. Actually that’s a reasonable forecast

[Shell Mound]

If anything its fast forward speed will help it catch up with the convection, nothing but deep easterly flow from the surface up to the upper levels because there will be a stacked ridge to its north, which usually happens during active Caribbean seasons. The TUTT will be no where near it as it approaches the Windward Islands.

https://i.imgur.com/mdQCUL3.png

97L’s forward speed over the next three days is expected to range from ~15 to ~25 kt. By comparison, Emily (2005) proceeded westward at 17 kt as it passed through the Windward Islands, and during this timeframe it failed to intensify significantly, if at all, despite being much better organised at that time than 97L is currently. In Emily’s case strong easterlies prevailed as well, suggesting that 97L, being in its formative stage and still a sprawling system, will not organise much beyond its current state, if at all, over the next three days. Therefore, I expect a middling depression at most during the next seventy-two hours. We shall see. Furthermore:

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410191524504166405
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410192228992028676
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410192679313494016
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410197332952506372
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1410198789936275460

I think I beg to differ on your Emily 2005 take.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3d/Emily_2005_track.png/1920px-Emily_2005_track.png

I appreciate your correction. According to this advisory, Emily became a hurricane while moving at 16 kt. But 97L faces easterly shear, per ASCAT and satellite.

[wxman57]

We initiated advisories. Have it a TS within 24 hours. Don't know why NHC's best chance of development is AFTER it passes the islands (beyond 48 hours). They need to up their first 48hr chances significantly. I agree that very strong easterly flow in the Caribbean will likely cause problems for the storm. It's rare that a storm can hold together with such strong low-level flow. Allen of 1980 did (first hurricane I ever forecast), but this is no Allen. For now, we have it dissipating south of the Dominican Republic Sunday morning. Sure, it could survive to reach the Gulf. Too much uncertainty at this point. My 4-day 4th of July weekend may be in jeopardy, and we're down a forecaster (vacation) starting this weekend.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Emily was also mid July, and fun fact...Dennis that came through before actually upwelled warmer water. OHC in the Caribbean goes to great depths.

[SFLcane]

Aric Dunn, any new ASCAT? I think that will be important at this moment.

Most recent is the HY-2B about 4 hours ago. (HY-2B is comparable to ASCAT in manyways. some biases are enhanced in high rain rates though. some tweeks are still being made to improve it. )

well on its way. Easily a TD.

https://i.ibb.co/nBmDxhL/Capture.png

ASCAT which is more reliable for now says nope.

[Aric Dunn]

People also need to keep in mind that 95L has a very large broad vorticity and is causing damming of the trade winds in the eastern carrib currently. that likely wont change much.

I highly doubt Future Elsa gets past 15kts.