ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Accelerated trade winds are only destructive for weak/borderline tropical storms. Models are showing 97L at near or above hurricane strength when traversing the Caribbean. I’d be cautious predicting the doom of 97L due to trades if it ends up as strong as models are predicting.

[ScottNAtlanta]

People also need to keep in mind that 95L has a very large broad vorticity and is causing damming of the trade winds in the eastern carrib currently. that likely wont change much.

I highly doubt Future Elsa gets past 15kts.

That is a very good point that I had not thought about.

[aspen]

Aric Dunn, any new ASCAT? I think that will be important at this moment.

Most recent is the HY-2B about 4 hours ago. (HY-2B is comparable to ASCAT in manyways. some biases are enhanced in high rain rates though. some tweeks are still being made to improve it. )

well on its way. Easily a TD.

https://i.ibb.co/nBmDxhL/Capture.png

ASCAT which is more reliable for now says nope.

https://i.imgur.com/lTIL2Yd.jpg

Needs some more convection to kill off the lower circulation and focus the northern one, or to merge them.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric Dunn, any new ASCAT? I think that will be important at this moment.

Most recent is the HY-2B about 4 hours ago. (HY-2B is comparable to ASCAT in manyways. some biases are enhanced in high rain rates though. some tweeks are still being made to improve it. )

well on its way. Easily a TD.

https://i.ibb.co/nBmDxhL/Capture.png

ASCAT which is more reliable for now says nope.

https://i.imgur.com/lTIL2Yd.jpg

Unfortunately, this pass only caught the very edge of the area we are interested in and increases ambiguities... which is why I excluded it.

[SconnieCane]

People also need to keep in mind that 95L has a very large broad vorticity and is causing damming of the trade winds in the eastern carrib currently. that likely wont change much.

I highly doubt Future Elsa gets past 15kts.

That would make it...not Elsa, would it not?

[aspen]

People also need to keep in mind that 95L has a very large broad vorticity and is causing damming of the trade winds in the eastern carrib currently. that likely wont change much.

I highly doubt Future Elsa gets past 15kts.

That would make it...not Elsa, would it not?

I think he’s talking about the storm’s speed, not winds.

[MississippiWx]

People also need to keep in mind that 95L has a very large broad vorticity and is causing damming of the trade winds in the eastern carrib currently. that likely wont change much.

I highly doubt Future Elsa gets past 15kts.

That would make it...not Elsa, would it not?

He’s talking about forward speed, not wind speed.

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2021063012, , BEST, 0, 91N, 411W, 30, 1008, DB

[ouragans]

Recon is planned for friday [Edit]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 15.0N 68.0W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR 01/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 12.0N 56.5W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR 02/1200Z.

[aspen]

Recon is planned for saturday

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 15.0N 68.0W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR 01/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 12.0N 56.5W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR 02/1200Z.

Odds are they move the recon flight up to Friday once this develops….I hope. Poorly scheduled recon missions better not become a thing this year.

[SFLcane]

People also need to keep in mind that 95L has a very large broad vorticity and is causing damming of the trade winds in the eastern carrib currently. that likely wont change much.

I highly doubt Future Elsa gets past 15kts.

Well as that moves away the trades are going to accelerate. there's a 50-50 shot it opens up before 70W

[eastcoastFL]

Aric Dunn, any new ASCAT? I think that will be important at this moment.

Most recent is the HY-2B about 4 hours ago. (HY-2B is comparable to ASCAT in manyways. some biases are enhanced in high rain rates though. some tweeks are still being made to improve it. )

well on its way. Easily a TD.

https://i.ibb.co/nBmDxhL/Capture.png

ASCAT which is more reliable for now says nope.

https://i.imgur.com/lTIL2Yd.jpg

It doesn’t look like this ASCAT pass covered the entire area of 97L. Wouldn’t that make it hard to tell exactly what is going on?

[ouragans]

Recon is planned for saturday

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 15.0N 68.0W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR 01/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 12.0N 56.5W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR 02/1200Z.

Odds are they move the recon flight up to Friday once this develops….I hope. Poorly scheduled recon missions better not become a thing this year.

My bad. It's on Friday

[xironman]

Maybe they repurpose tomorrows flight for 97L. 95's chances are pretty low.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It’s large size acts as a shield against that dry air to some extent. Instead of succumbing to the northern dry air, it likely will stay mostly free of it I think because it has substantial moisture surrounding it. Also 95L is like Aric noted calming the air around it by damming the trade winds with its convection. Also It may be reducing shear in a similar fashion for 97L creating a more favorable environment. I like to think of 95L as the guy taking all the hits for his buddy while said buddy pumps Iron without any injuries from outside influences. Probably a terrible analogy though.

[eastcoastFL]

People also need to keep in mind that 95L has a very large broad vorticity and is causing damming of the trade winds in the eastern carrib currently. that likely wont change much.

I highly doubt Future Elsa gets past 15kts.

Well as that moves away the trades are going to accelerate. there's a 50-50 shot it opens up before 70W

Are you saying it develops and then has a 50% chance of becoming an open wave before 70w?

[jfk08c]

Recon is planned for saturday

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 15.0N 68.0W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR 01/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 12.0N 56.5W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR 02/1200Z.

Odds are they move the recon flight up to Friday once this develops….I hope. Poorly scheduled recon missions better not become a thing this year.

I work right next the Lakeland airport and 2 weeks ago, the hurricane hunter plane would be taking off left and right. Haven't seen much of it since the two invests were established. I'd say poorly scheduled is an understatement

[eastcoastFL]

Recon is planned for saturday

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 15.0N 68.0W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR 01/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 12.0N 56.5W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR 02/1200Z.

Odds are they move the recon flight up to Friday once this develops….I hope. Poorly scheduled recon missions better not become a thing this year.

I work right next the Lakeland airport and 2 weeks ago, the hurricane hunter plane would be taking off left and right. Haven't seen much of it since the two invests were established. I'd say poorly scheduled is an understatement

Did the plane that investigated Danny come out of Lakeland?

[SFLcane]

People also need to keep in mind that 95L has a very large broad vorticity and is causing damming of the trade winds in the eastern carrib currently. that likely wont change much.

I highly doubt Future Elsa gets past 15kts.

Well as that moves away the trades are going to accelerate. there's a 50-50 shot it opens up before 70W

Are you saying it develops and then has a 50% chance of becoming an open wave before 70w?

Yeppers… The Eastern Caribbean flow is not favorable

[cycloneye]

JB is on board.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1410224959322984451