My point exactly.
https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1410224665675640840
ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
ouragans wrote:aspen wrote:ouragans wrote:Recon is planned for saturday
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 15.0N 68.0W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR 01/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 12.0N 56.5W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR 02/1200Z.
Odds are they move the recon flight up to Friday once this develops….I hope. Poorly scheduled recon missions better not become a thing this year.
My bad. It's on Friday
No, their bad. It should've been scheduled for Thursday (tomorrow), not Friday!
But we have this discussion about tardy Recon missions every year. Oh well.
And the beat goes on ...
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
New ASCAT-B showing pretty much what we need for an upgrade little more concentration of convection will to the trick for later today.. after including the ambiguities in things look to be on the up and up.
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BYG Jacob
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:New ASCAT-B showing pretty much what we need for an upgrade.. after including the ambiguities in things look to be on the up and up.
https://i.ibb.co/G79WMYb/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/4KvtJDk/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/yYxfwHR/Capture.png
Looks like TD-5 to me.
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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:New ASCAT-B showing pretty much what we need for an upgrade little more concentration of convection will to the trick for later today.. after including the ambiguities in things look to be on the up and up.
https://i.ibb.co/G79WMYb/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/4KvtJDk/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/yYxfwHR/Capture.png
Yeah I’m not sure what else people need to see. This is a tropical cyclone now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Well this has the attention of NWS Melbourne:
Interesting snippet from news Melbourne:
Monday-Tuesday...While the eastern CONUS trough lifts out over the
NW Atlantic, a lingering weakness in the mid level height field will
persist over the SE CONUS. A strong mid level ridge is progged to
build over the western Atlantic east of Florida, coincident with a
tropical disturbance (currently Atlantic Invest 97L) moving WNW to
NW near the Greater Antilles. This system will have the potential to
impact the local weather early next week, in whatever form it takes.
However, given the inherent uncertainty in timing/location/intensity
of whatever it between now and days 6-7, it`s too soon to speculate
about impacts beyond stating the forecast will obviously maintain
above normal rain chances Mon-Tue.
Interesting snippet from news Melbourne:
Monday-Tuesday...While the eastern CONUS trough lifts out over the
NW Atlantic, a lingering weakness in the mid level height field will
persist over the SE CONUS. A strong mid level ridge is progged to
build over the western Atlantic east of Florida, coincident with a
tropical disturbance (currently Atlantic Invest 97L) moving WNW to
NW near the Greater Antilles. This system will have the potential to
impact the local weather early next week, in whatever form it takes.
However, given the inherent uncertainty in timing/location/intensity
of whatever it between now and days 6-7, it`s too soon to speculate
about impacts beyond stating the forecast will obviously maintain
above normal rain chances Mon-Tue.
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ouragans
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:New ASCAT-B showing pretty much what we need for an upgrade little more concentration of convection will to the trick for later today.. after including the ambiguities in things look to be on the up and up.
https://i.ibb.co/G79WMYb/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/4KvtJDk/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/yYxfwHR/Capture.png
Will they upgrade at 11 or 5? I would say 5, with a TWO at 90/90 and the wording "if this trend continues"
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:New ASCAT-B showing pretty much what we need for an upgrade little more concentration of convection will to the trick for later today.. after including the ambiguities in things look to be on the up and up.
https://i.ibb.co/G79WMYb/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/4KvtJDk/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/yYxfwHR/Capture.png
It's barely closed but like Aric mentioned the NHC may only designate this a TD if it can sustain a little more convection. I think with DMAX coming in it'll be enough to initiate advisories.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:New ASCAT-B showing pretty much what we need for an upgrade little more concentration of convection will to the trick for later today.. after including the ambiguities in things look to be on the up and up.
https://i.ibb.co/G79WMYb/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/4KvtJDk/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/yYxfwHR/Capture.png
Probably a bit too elongated still. My guess is they'll also wait for a bit because convection is on the wane
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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:New ASCAT-B showing pretty much what we need for an upgrade little more concentration of convection will to the trick for later today.. after including the ambiguities in things look to be on the up and up.
https://i.ibb.co/G79WMYb/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/4KvtJDk/Capture.png
https://i.ibb.co/yYxfwHR/Capture.png
It's barely closed but like Aric mentioned the NHC may only designate this a TD if it can sustain a little more convection. I think with DMAX coming in it'll be enough to initiate advisories.
I think sometimes we just need to use our eyes. There are strong westerlies on the southern side of the circulation on satellite right now.
Last edited by MississippiWx on Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1410220319860613123
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410220921000972298
https://twitter.com/JReber16/status/1410221019319709699
On another note, the easternmost TS in the month of June occurred at 45.2°W on 25 June 1933, behind 2017’s Bret (51.7°W on 19 June).
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410220921000972298
https://twitter.com/JReber16/status/1410221019319709699
On another note, the easternmost TS in the month of June occurred at 45.2°W on 25 June 1933, behind 2017’s Bret (51.7°W on 19 June).
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TallyTracker
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Still looks like a very sharp wave axis to me. Still I think it’s only a small increase in organization away from becoming a TD.
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Deshaunrob17
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I could be wrong but this looks better than when Laura first became a depression.
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Stormybajan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
ouragans wrote:Recon is planned for friday [Edit]ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 15.0N 68.0W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR 01/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NEAR 12.0N 56.5W FOR SYSTEM PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR 02/1200Z.
Friday is too late. Why dont they just cancel the one for 95L and push up 97L's recon for 95L's time??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
TallyTracker wrote:Still looks like a very sharp wave axis to me. Still I think it’s only a small increase in organization away from becoming a TD.
Agreed. Maybe not a TD just yet, but it won’t take much effort for it to become one. However, it’ll require rapid organization for this to become TS Elsa in time for the 5pm advisory to count as a June storm.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso1_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16_meso1.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16_meso1.html
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Eric Blake's response to Craig Setzer which burst his bubble. The only reason the GFS trends less on vorticity past 96 hrs is because of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1410228902430220295
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HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I'm guessing the 11 o'clock advisory will make this at least a TD. June MDR action!
Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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