ATL: ELSA - Models

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS ensembles…

[Cat5James]

06z GEFS ensembles…

https://i.imgur.com/tnvKUth.png

Anywhere from TX to the East Coast... that narrows it down.

[SconnieCane]

Yep, that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

https://i.imgur.com/4MTzqiH.png

Consistent with what it had at 108 hours yesterday...

[Weatherboy1]

06z GEFS ensembles…

https://i.imgur.com/tnvKUth.png

Sooooo Texas through Nova Scotia then? Glad we got that “settled”

In all seriousness, though, just underscores how far out 97 is still … and how it’s too early to nail down much!

[eastcoastFL]

[Blown Away]

12z... Shockingly the intensity models seem to be showing a good upper air pattern down the road for 97L to become a modest Cat 1-2 hurricane and the only limiting factor appears to be the Hispaniola/Cuba land interaction... I've always been a strong believer in "Climatology" but so many rare things happening over past 10 years, like a June/July hurricane moving WNW through the MDR into the Caribbean...

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/2Jtx6k3.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/R49pABg.jpg

12z... Shockingly the intensity models seem to be showing a good upper air pattern down the road for 97L to become a modest Cat 1-2 hurricane and the only limiting factor appears to be the Hispaniola/Cuba land interaction... I've always been a strong believer in "Climatology" but so many rare things happening over past 10 years, like a June/July hurricane moving WNW through the MDR into the Caribbean...

I would think if this ever becomes a problem for the Florida peninsula which is highly uncertain it would need to really intensify before crossing cuba.

[Cat5James]

https://i.imgur.com/2Jtx6k3.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/R49pABg.jpg

12z... Shockingly the intensity models seem to be showing a good upper air pattern down the road for 97L to become a modest Cat 1-2 hurricane and the only limiting factor appears to be the Hispaniola/Cuba land interaction... I've always been a strong believer in "Climatology" but so many rare things happening over past 10 years, like a June/July hurricane moving WNW through the MDR into the Caribbean...

I would think if this ever becomes a problem for the Florida peninsula which is highly uncertain it would need to really intensify before crossing cuba.

Depends which part of Cuba it crosses.. only certain sections of the island have high terrain.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/2Jtx6k3.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/R49pABg.jpg

12z... Shockingly the intensity models seem to be showing a good upper air pattern down the road for 97L to become a modest Cat 1-2 hurricane and the only limiting factor appears to be the Hispaniola/Cuba land interaction... I've always been a strong believer in "Climatology" but so many rare things happening over past 10 years, like a June/July hurricane moving WNW through the MDR into the Caribbean...

I would think if this ever becomes a problem for the Florida peninsula which is highly uncertain it would need to really intensify before crossing cuba.

Depends which part of Cuba it crosses.. only certain sections of the island have high terrain.

It's mainly the SE section of the island.

[kevin]

06z HWRF borderline MH landfall on Jamaica. Like the 00z run it shows 97L becoming a hurricane around Friday morning and TS conditions already later today. Elsa strengthens again after the Jamaica landfall and looks to be making another cat 1 landfall on Cuba just after the run ends. The precise path is still very uncertain and climatology is definitely against future Elsa, but I have a bad feeling about this one looking at the consistency of the hurricane models. If this is already possible in late June combined with the very easy cyclogenesis of the previous tropical storms this season, who knows what'll happen once we get to August/September.

[aspen]

06z HWRF borderline MH landfall on Jamaica. Like the 00z run it shows 97L becoming a hurricane around Friday morning and TS conditions already later today.

A recent ASCAT pass confirmed that 97L is already producing TS-force winds, so the HWRF seems to be on to something.

[crownweather]

Interesting stats that ***could*** be useful for this season. GFS did best with track and HWRF did best with intensity in 2020.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410244561545269259

[SoupBone]

06z GEFS ensembles…

https://i.imgur.com/tnvKUth.png

Anywhere from TX to the East Coast... that narrows it down.

Not really though. Look at where the cluster is on that run. Heavy number of them pointing toward Florida. A lot of this will be dependent upon that trough and how much it weakens the high over the east coast.

[Shell Mound]

06z HWRF borderline MH landfall on Jamaica. Like the 00z run it shows 97L becoming a hurricane around Friday morning and TS conditions already later today.

A recent ASCAT pass confirmed that 97L is already producing TS-force winds, so the HWRF seems to be on to something.

Nevertheless, the 06Z HWRF is noticeably weaker with 97L than the 00Z run beyond forty-eight hours, so it is clearly trending toward the GEFS/EPS.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/2Jtx6k3.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/R49pABg.jpg

12z... Shockingly the intensity models seem to be showing a good upper air pattern down the road for 97L to become a modest Cat 1-2 hurricane and the only limiting factor appears to be the Hispaniola/Cuba land interaction... I've always been a strong believer in "Climatology" but so many rare things happening over past 10 years, like a June/July hurricane moving WNW through the MDR into the Caribbean...

Since this system is really starting to develop now and conditions appear to be favorable in the Caribbean, I would not rule out the possibility of another Dennis type system. I will not be surprised if the system is much weaker, but we need to watch this closely (which I know we will).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting stats that ***could*** be useful for this season. GFS did best with track and HWRF did best with intensity in 2020.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1410244561545269259

This is pretty significant and something we need to consider when watching the models for 97L. Pretty damning for the Euro to falling behind the GFS like this. Still a decent model, but it's clearly struggling with its low-bias towards TC intensity and missed genesis events.

[aspen]

06z HWRF borderline MH landfall on Jamaica. Like the 00z run it shows 97L becoming a hurricane around Friday morning and TS conditions already later today.

A recent ASCAT pass confirmed that 97L is already producing TS-force winds, so the HWRF seems to be on to something.

Nevertheless, the 06Z HWRF is noticeably weaker with 97L than the 00Z run beyond forty-eight hours, so it is clearly trending toward the GEFS/EPS.

All of the HWRF runs have peaked in the low 970s/high 960s, and that’s exactly where the 06z run falls. It’s not significantly weaker and still gets this to hurricane status in 48-60 hours.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

12z GFS is bombing this into a hurricane before the islands.

[Steve]

06z GEFS ensembles…

...

Anywhere from TX to the East Coast... that narrows it down.

Not really though. Look at where the cluster is on that run. Heavy number of them pointing toward Florida. A lot of this will be dependent upon that trough and how much it weakens the high over the east coast.

It doesn't seem to make that much sense with the upper pattern on the operational model run. You have a front coming down and stalling out. But that brings a reaction with 97L coming up from the tropics. Seems to be the western edge of embedded Atlantic high pressure (which is embedded in more high pressure) that gives it the boundary and push to come up through Florida. MJO looks to run through Phases 2 and 3 the next few days, so we'll have to see where that's at and if the GFS evolves its 500mb forecast.