ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

Aren't troughs digging into the south this time of year just as whacky as storms forming? Are we just getting an overall weather pattern change early this year? Seems like those puzzle pieces are fitting together nicely. That path looks like a damn October path.

I don't trust models that far out. I would not be surprised if it turns out to be a ridge instead of a trough or the trough fails to dig.

[ElectricStorm]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

I wouldn't say likely... It's possible, but if it keeps developing at the rate it is now, it could end up coming in as a strong TS maybe even a hurricane and it would be much more likely to survive. So I think people down the line do need to pay attention to it.

[AutoPenalti]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

I would have believed you 2 days ago, but this is highly unlikely now.

[TJRE]

95l giving the SAL (dry air)
a nice break for 97l to track up into ....imho

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plit&time=

[Aric Dunn]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

No

[Category5Kaiju]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

Unfortunately I am not exactly sure why it would dissipate there, especially based on looking at the current behavior of the system. I mean, it might, but what specific, concrete evidence do we have that would suggest that?

[Ubuntwo]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

It's definitely possible that interaction with Hispaniola completely kills off 97L without any reformations down the road. That's just one solution and certainly not 'likely' when considering model guidance as a whole. Two cents. The GFS, UKMet, CMC, Navy, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all continue the system beyond 70W.

[SFLcane]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

We can speculate and discuss the invest and potential threats down the road. Thank you

Season is over

[DestinHurricane]

This reminds me so much of Dennis 2005. I don't think it will get that strong, but I think the track will be very similar. @gums @ivanhater this could be one to watch

[SunnyThoughts]

This reminds me so much of Dennis 2005. I don't think it will get that strong, but I think the track will be very similar. @gums @ivanhater this could be one to watch

I certainly hope that isn't the case. Dennis did a number on the trees on my property.

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT-C after after ASCAT-B

Much more uniform. still quite a bit of ambiguity. Very very close to designation..

Since the time of this pass the structure in the low levels and the convective pattern have continued to improve. Just a little more convection and an Upgrade may come 5pm/11pm

[captainbarbossa19]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

It's definitely possible that interaction with Hispaniola completely kills off 97L without any reformations down the road. That's just one solution and certainly not 'likely' when considering model guidance as a whole. Two cents. The GFS, UKMet, CMC, Navy, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all continue the system beyond 70W.

I would not even count of Hispaniola killing the storm. Remember what happened last year with Laura?

[Shell Mound]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

It's definitely possible that interaction with Hispaniola completely kills off 97L without any reformations down the road. That's just one solution and certainly not 'likely' when considering model guidance as a whole. Two cents. The GFS, UKMet, CMC, Navy, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all continue the system beyond 70W.

I am mainly relying on the EPS. While it tends to miss genesis, it is adept at diagnosing the time of dissipation, especially in somewhat marginal setups. In this case I think the combination of interaction with land and climatologically enhanced easterlies will act to destroy the circulation to the immediate south of Hispaniola. Even now, the fact that the centre appears to be consolidating on the northern side of the convective mass suggests that proximity to the dry trade inversion will be a problem within the next two to three days. As soon as this leaves the ITCZ it could fall apart very quickly. Yet we shall see.

[InfernoFlameCat]

In my eyes, the reason 97L is unlikely to dissipate in the Caribbean is because 95L is over there changing it into a quite favorable environment ie more moisture, less shear, and sucking up the dust and dry air like a vacuum.

[captainbarbossa19]

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

It's definitely possible that interaction with Hispaniola completely kills off 97L without any reformations down the road. That's just one solution and certainly not 'likely' when considering model guidance as a whole. Two cents. The GFS, UKMet, CMC, Navy, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all continue the system beyond 70W.

I am mainly relying on the EPS. While it tends to miss genesis, it is adept at diagnosing the time of dissipation, especially in somewhat marginal setups. In this case I think the combination of interaction with land and climatologically enhanced easterlies will act to destroy the circulation to the immediate south of Hispaniola. Even now, the fact that the centre appears to be consolidating on the northern side of the convective mass suggests that proximity to the dry trade inversion will be a problem within the next two to three days. As soon as this leaves the ITCZ it could fall apart very quickly. Yet we shall see.

Those are valid points. Climatology would suggest that this storm will either not survive or perform well. We shall see if this pattern is an anomaly, or if climatology will win in this battle.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne acknowledges this system on their morning disco

Monday-Tuesday...While the eastern CONUS trough lifts out over the
NW Atlantic, a lingering weakness in the mid level height field will
persist over the SE CONUS. A strong mid level ridge is progged to
build over the western Atlantic east of Florida, coincident with a
tropical disturbance (currently Atlantic Invest 97L) moving WNW to
NW near the Greater Antilles. This system will have the potential to
impact the local weather early next week, in whatever form it takes.
However, given the inherent uncertainty in timing/location/intensity
of whatever it between now and days 6-7, it`s too soon to speculate
about impacts beyond stating the forecast will obviously maintain
above normal rain chances Mon-Tue.

Residents and visitors should keep close tabs on it over the next
several days. Now is an excellent time to ensure your seasonal
hurricane preparedness plan and supply kit is up to date!

[InfernoFlameCat]

I find it neat how much 95L is aiding 97L. These types of interactions are for some reason heartwarming to me lol. I’m going to search up major hurricanes that had a disturbance in front of it. Maybe give some insight into that. If y’all know of any scenarios in the past of this, post about it. Then we can draw comparisons between them and the current event and maybe get a better understanding on how much 95L will impact the intensity of 97L. Thanks! Also one note off the top of my head is Delta from last year had Gamma moisten things up, might be partly why Delta had such a massive RI phase.

[AlphaToOmega]

Unlike with Invest 95L, I do not think the calendar date will be enough to stop Invest 97L from developing. Invest 95L is "sucking up" that dry air coming from Africa, putting Invest 97L in a favorable environment for cyclogenesis. Invest 97L is also farther south than Invest 95L, meaning it will have warmer waters to play with.

[eastcoastFL]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

I think it’s a bit early to say “likely” to dissipate. There’s still too many factors at this point.

[SFLcane]

This is a developing tropical cyclone folks. Not to far from being classified