ATL: ELSA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS (Beaumont, TX for summer)

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#81 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:58 am

SFLcane wrote:12z GFS is bombing this into a hurricane before the islands. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmvjGVkF/gfs-jpeg.gif


I sure do hope intensity is way off for this. It needs to be much weaker or things are going to get rough.
1 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4029
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#82 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:59 am

SFLcane wrote:12z GFS is bombing this into a hurricane before the islands. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmvjGVkF/gfs-jpeg.gif

It's faster as well.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2554
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#83 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:59 am

SFLcane wrote:12z GFS is bombing this into a hurricane before the islands. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmvjGVkF/gfs-jpeg.gif


In line with HWRF (which had 981 mbar at this time stamp) and a clear intensifying trend regarding GFS the last few runs. Here below is an overview Elsa's state at 06z on Friday in the last few GFS runs. The 18z forecast from yesterday 'only' had it at 1000 mbar by Friday and since then it has steadily been getting stronger each run and now the 12z run has a 983 mbar storm on Friday.

12z, June 30: 983 mbar
06z, June 30: 991 mbar
00z, June 30: 994 mbar
18z, June 29: 1000 mbar
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2554
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#84 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:03 am

12z GFS landfalls in the southern tip of Haiti @90 hours, 981 mbar in the previous frame.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS (Beaumont, TX for summer)

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#85 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:05 am

kevin wrote:12z GFS landfalls in the southern tip of Haiti @90 hours, 981 mbar in the previous frame.


Looks like it may avoid SE Cuba.
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4029
Age: 28
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#86 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:06 am

GFS landfalls in Haiti, weakens from land interaction and then intensifies slightly.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#87 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:08 am

GFS @108 hrs appears ridge breaking and NW turn beginning??
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3900
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#88 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:08 am

Gfs crosses western Cuba before restrengthening in the eastern gulf and hitting the big bend area around 975mb
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Starkville, MS (Beaumont, TX for summer)

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#89 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:10 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Gfs crosses western Cuba before restrengthening in the eastern gulf and hitting the big bend area around 975mb


Seems almost identical to the previous run. It will be interesting if the Euro finally decides to develop it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2554
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#90 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:11 am

Looks like land interaction with Cuba is helping Elsa to recover, from 1001 mbar to 994 mbar (108 - 124 hours) while grazing the southern coast of Cuba.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#91 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:18 am

Um... :eek:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#92 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:20 am

Image
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#93 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:20 am

12z GFS... Modest Cat 1 very close to Key West landafall @150 hrs... Cat 2 nearing landfall @Sarasota @162 hrs... 12z is a bit NE and faster than 06z near Florida...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2554
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#94 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:21 am



Directly into Tampa if this verifies :eek:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#95 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:24 am

Florida on the nasty side.

Image
0 likes   
Top
AlphaToOmega
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1448
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#96 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:27 am

SFLcane wrote:Florida on the nasty side.

https://i.postimg.cc/rmpC605p/gfs1111.png


Not good after what happened in Miami
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#97 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:28 am

SFLcane wrote:Florida on the nasty side.

https://i.postimg.cc/rmpC605p/gfs1111.png


Clearly the only limiting factor keeping 97L from bombing is land interaction, per the models... Amazing it appears some of the models see supportive upper air & SST’s given its June/July in Caribbean...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#98 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:32 am

12z GFS... (2) CONUS landfalls, almost (3), as Cat 1-2... Key West (almost), @Sarasota (SW FL), cross over FL into Atlantic and in to South Carolina...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2554
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#99 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:32 am

And of course afterwards it grazes multiple states along the East Coast because why not :eek: . What a crazy 12z run by GFS, let's hope reality won't be this bad.

0 likes   
Top
Senobia
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:59 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#100 Postby Senobia » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:48 am

What's in the steering pattern that the models are seeing right now that takes 97 so sharply N and E into FL?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests