ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

Unlike with Invest 95L, I do not think the calendar date will be enough to stop Invest 97L from developing. Invest 95L is "sucking up" that dry air coming from Africa, putting Invest 97L in a favorable environment for cyclogenesis. Invest 97L is also farther south than Invest 95L, meaning it will have warmer waters to play with.

95L is going to have to acknowledge that it will not become a NS and "suck it up."

[toad strangler]

This is a developing tropical cyclone folks. Not to far from being classified

Classic near or post genesis presentation

[eastcoastFL]

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

It's definitely possible that interaction with Hispaniola completely kills off 97L without any reformations down the road. That's just one solution and certainly not 'likely' when considering model guidance as a whole. Two cents. The GFS, UKMet, CMC, Navy, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all continue the system beyond 70W.

I am mainly relying on the EPS. While it tends to miss genesis, it is adept at diagnosing the time of dissipation, especially in somewhat marginal setups. In this case I think the combination of interaction with land and climatologically enhanced easterlies will act to destroy the circulation to the immediate south of Hispaniola. Even now, the fact that the centre appears to be consolidating on the northern side of the convective mass suggests that proximity to the dry trade inversion will be a problem within the next two to three days. As soon as this leaves the ITCZ it could fall apart very quickly. Yet we shall see.

I think EPS told the same exact story with Laura. It missed genesis and then constantly opened her up as a wave after Cuba and nothing close to that played out. I wouldn’t put much stock in it with a storm that has yet to develop like 97l, especially with support from other models. I hope that you’re correct but I don’t see any reason to put much faith in this scenario right now.

[wxman57]

The reason it may struggle in the eastern Caribbean is because of accelerating low-level easterlies. This will limit convergence and could cause the circulation to open up. While I'm quite hopeful of this happening, I'm becoming doubtful that I'll get my Friday through Monday days off...

Also, look for the models to shift farther south with the track in the eastern Caribbean. It may pass well south of the DR. That won't increase its chances for survival, as the reason for the more southern track would be those same strong low-level easterlies.

[AlphaToOmega]

Correct me if I am wrong, but did the Euro update this year to improve skill with tropical cyclones?

[eastcoastFL]

It’s surely getting the look and it’s pretty robust in size so far. Just needs to continue consolidating and keep up convection

[captainbarbossa19]

I find it neat how much 95L is aiding 97L. These types of interactions are for some reason heartwarming to me lol. I’m going to search up major hurricanes that had a disturbance in front of it. Maybe give some insight into that. If y’all know of any scenarios in the past of this, post about it. Then we can draw comparisons between them and the current event and maybe get a better understanding on how much 95L will impact the intensity of 97L. Thanks! Also one note off the top of my head is Delta from last year had Gamma moisten things up, might be partly why Delta had such a massive RI phase.

Marco and Laura last year too is a good example.

[SoupBone]

The reason it may struggle in the eastern Caribbean is because of accelerating low-level easterlies. This will limit convergence and could cause the circulation to open up. While I'm quite hopeful of this happening, I'm becoming doubtful that I'll get my Friday through Monday days off...

Also, look for the models to shift farther south with the track in the eastern Caribbean. It may pass well south of the DR. That won't increase its chances for survival, as the reason for the more southern track would be those same strong low-level easterlies.

I notice you haven't even hinted at a landfall yet. Too far out? I know that trough placement is going to be the key.

[Category5Kaiju]

This phenomenon on storms "sacrificing" themselves to aid disturbances behind it is quite an interesting thing, not gonna lie.

[Deshaunrob17]

It could ramp up a bit to strong TS before the islands, but I do believe it will encounter limiting factors at some point in time. Eastern Caribbean trades and dry air will either weaken it some in the Eastern Caribbean or put a pause on intensification. Hard to believe that this will be a strengthening hurricane in the Caribbean Sea (unlikely, but definitely not impossible ). I'm not buying the open wave idea either (although probably a bit more likely than a strengthening hurricane) .
Surely a watching game

[RT23]

It’s surely getting the look and it’s pretty robust in size so far. Just needs to continue consolidating and keep up convection

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/GEOCOLOR/20211811510_GOES16-ABI-taw-GEOCOLOR-900x540.jpg

Eyes on Barbados for sure ! the mere fact this is low and still approaching, we dont want another TS Tomas on our door step

[Dean4Storms]

The reason it may struggle in the eastern Caribbean is because of accelerating low-level easterlies. This will limit convergence and could cause the circulation to open up. While I'm quite hopeful of this happening, I'm becoming doubtful that I'll get my Friday through Monday days off...

Also, look for the models to shift farther south with the track in the eastern Caribbean. It may pass well south of the DR. That won't increase its chances for survival, as the reason for the more southern track would be those same strong low-level easterlies.

Yea, it's the western Carib. Sea where we could see this slow and turn and get really organized climatogically speaking.

[Shell Mound]

It's definitely possible that interaction with Hispaniola completely kills off 97L without any reformations down the road. That's just one solution and certainly not 'likely' when considering model guidance as a whole. Two cents. The GFS, UKMet, CMC, Navy, HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all continue the system beyond 70W.

I am mainly relying on the EPS. While it tends to miss genesis, it is adept at diagnosing the time of dissipation, especially in somewhat marginal setups. In this case I think the combination of interaction with land and climatologically enhanced easterlies will act to destroy the circulation to the immediate south of Hispaniola. Even now, the fact that the centre appears to be consolidating on the northern side of the convective mass suggests that proximity to the dry trade inversion will be a problem within the next two to three days. As soon as this leaves the ITCZ it could fall apart very quickly. Yet we shall see.

I think EPS told the same exact story with Laura. It missed genesis and then constantly opened her up as a wave after Cuba and nothing close to that played out. I wouldn’t put much stock in it with a storm that has yet to develop like 97l, especially with support from other models. I hope that you’re correct but I don’t see any reason to put much faith in this scenario right now.

I would focus less on past performance and more on the current conditions, whether synoptic or thermodynamic. Visible and other satellite data indicate stratocumulus and low PWATs, along with SAL, to the immediate north and east of 97L. This is already likely to limit 97L’s development within the next few days. Even though 95L offered a bit of a reprieve, another bout of dry air is approaching, as the low-level ridging strengthens by day three. Beyond that timeframe, interaction with the Greater Antilles could combine with the strong easterlies to destroy 97L. Dennis and Laura occurred under different conditions, so I would not focus on those examples.

[wxman57]

The reason it may struggle in the eastern Caribbean is because of accelerating low-level easterlies. This will limit convergence and could cause the circulation to open up. While I'm quite hopeful of this happening, I'm becoming doubtful that I'll get my Friday through Monday days off...

Also, look for the models to shift farther south with the track in the eastern Caribbean. It may pass well south of the DR. That won't increase its chances for survival, as the reason for the more southern track would be those same strong low-level easterlies.

I notice you haven't even hinted at a landfall yet. Too far out? I know that trough placement is going to be the key.

Not too far out at all. I'm thinking possibly Grenada Friday afternoon. By the way, I think the NHC will have to go with a "high" chance of development in their next outlook, followed by an advisory by 21Z today. Most likely a PTC advisory to start with, since they only went with a 60% chance of development in their last outlook. They may bite the bullet and call it a TD.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am mainly relying on the EPS. While it tends to miss genesis, it is adept at diagnosing the time of dissipation, especially in somewhat marginal setups. In this case I think the combination of interaction with land and climatologically enhanced easterlies will act to destroy the circulation to the immediate south of Hispaniola. Even now, the fact that the centre appears to be consolidating on the northern side of the convective mass suggests that proximity to the dry trade inversion will be a problem within the next two to three days. As soon as this leaves the ITCZ it could fall apart very quickly. Yet we shall see.

I think EPS told the same exact story with Laura. It missed genesis and then constantly opened her up as a wave after Cuba and nothing close to that played out. I wouldn’t put much stock in it with a storm that has yet to develop like 97l, especially with support from other models. I hope that you’re correct but I don’t see any reason to put much faith in this scenario right now.

I would focus less on past performance and more on the current conditions, whether synoptic or thermodynamic. Visible and other satellite data indicate stratocumulus and low PWATs, along with SAL, to the immediate north and east of 97L. This is already likely to limit 97L’s development within the next few days. Even though 95L offered a bit of a reprieve, another bout of dry air is approaching, as the low-level ridging strengthens by day three. Beyond that timeframe, interaction with the Greater Antilles could combine with the strong easterlies to destroy 97L. Dennis and Laura occurred under different conditions, so I would not focus on those examples.

while yes those are things to consider, note that stratocumulus are often present in a LLC, 97L has a large area of rotation that makes it considerably more resistant than smaller systems, and is over more than warm enough waters to sustain itself, warm enough to support at least a marginal hurricane. The SAL will not have a big impact. The only issue I see is the easterlies Wxman57 mentioned. Also could you give 97L a little bit of love?

[wxman57]

->> 97L

[AlphaToOmega]

:shoot: ->> 97L

Reminds me somewhat of this

[InfernoFlameCat]

97L new burst of convection vaguely looks like it is trying to wrap around a center. Also Wxman57, your post made me laugh so hard! Back to the disturbance, the convective bursts on the east and west appear to slightly wrap around one another.

[Category5Kaiju]

:shoot: ->> 97L

Die Elsa Die!!!

[ElectricStorm]

All I'm saying is that I better not see even a single Frozen meme for this storm